Written by Cory Puffett
Published September 3, 2024
With the 2024 AFL Draft completed, we begin the final countdown to the NFL regular season. On Thursday night the Kansas City Chiefs will unveil their Super Bowl LVIII banner and hope to avoid the fate they suffered in last year's NFL Kickoff Game against the Detroit Lions. The Baltimore Ravens will be in Arrowhead looking to start their own march to the postseason with the reining NFL MVP leading the charge. It should be a fun start to our 12th season in the AFL!
For the first time since Alex Mayo joined our league in 2020, we have a new member in the fold. Andrew Perez had a last-minute conflict and rather than autodraft with our new buy-in structure, he elected to take his leave. It was quite an afternoon of scrambling but fortunately one of my top choices, Jeffery McDonald, was available and interested.
After trying out FanDraft for our drafting experience in 2023, we returned to FleaFlicker's draft room for 2024. The experience last year was interesting but the site had some UI bugs that needed some work and it ultimately would have worked better if everyone could draft in-person. After a few unfortunate auto-picks last year, I believe everybody was able to make all of their picks this year.
A record 33 draft picks traded hands for the 2024 draft, more than double the previous record of 16 ahead of the 2021 and 2023 drafts. Could we see a repeat this year as managers jockey with decisions of whether to buy or sell? Or do managers feel that the swapping of draft capital hasn't reaped the benefits they were looking for in the past and could that calm their trading itch?
Let’s get to the draft grades. Unlike my shamelessly biased Keeper Grades, I outsource my draft grading every year so that I can eliminate my own bias. I’ll be using insights from a few different websites to discuss each manager’s draft.
The gifs for each team come from RotoTrade’s analysis and FantasyPros provides a list of steals (players drafted 2+ rounds later than they’re valued) and reaches (players drafted 2+ rounds earlier than they’re valued) as well as hindsight suggestions on who managers should have drafted in various rounds to improve their team based on valuable players available later in the draft.
Steals are typically defined as players who were taken 2+ rounds later than their value and reaches are those taken 2+ rounds earlier. I tend to throw out players drafted only 2 rounds early because with our keeper settings, players are naturally going to move up the draft by at least a round. By the same standard, I'll look at steals as those taken at least 1 round later than their value.
As always, managers will be listed in reverse order of projected standings. This year this will be based on the average of FootballGuys’ projected playoff probability based on average in-season management and RotoTrade's projected playoff probability. Last year’s winner, Brandon Saunders, had the lowest draft grade, coming just a year after William Battle turned the second highest draft grade into a league title.
It’s worth noting that the two players who faced each other in the 2023 Snyder Cup were 9th and 11th in last year's draft rankings, however. So while these grades do not have to be the kiss of death on your outlook for the season, it is probably most important for those managers to be actively looking for roster moves early in the season. Brandon, for example, landed two true league winners off waivers in the first two weeks of the season in Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
The most optimistic outlook for Evan's team comes from FootballGuys, but then I don't know if they ever give a draft grade lower than a C. FantasyPros gave him an F and RotoTrade gave him a D- for his draft.
RotoTrade Analysis: "This is an inferior team that almost certainly won't make the playoffs as is, unless you get some unexpected performances from multiple players. Therefore, you should look to make some trades ASAP and you should also be very active on your league's waiver wire."
FootballGuys Analysis: "Your only real core strength is at quarterback, yet that's often the easiest position to fill during the season. Your weaknesses at both running back and receiver put you in a hole before any games have played. To end up with a team constructed like this, you probably did not get value on some of your picks. The players themselves are not necessarily bad --- you just might have paid more than what they were worth."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Evan had taken Justin Jefferson at 1.03 and David Montgomery at 5.03 instead of Derrick Henry and Christian Watson, respectively, his team score of 463 (#12) would have gone up by 56 points. His team score would be ranked 12th.
FP Steals: Ezekiel Elliott (11.03) - 1-round value; Khalil Shakir (9.03) is the #1 WR in their consensus sleeper rankings
FP Reaches: Christian Watson (5.03) - 3-round reach; Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6.10) - 4-round reach
Draft Grade: D-
Like for Evan, FootballGuys gives Alex a grade of C for his draft where FantasyPros and RotoTrade gave him D- and D+ grades, respectively. But even FootballGuys says it may be "time to invest in some pension plans."
RotoTrade Analysis: "Your team is definitely on the weak side and your playoff chances are not looking great. Hopefully you can make some strong waiver pickups and/or good trades to improve your roster."
FootballGuys Analysis: "We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back. The receiver corps is a concern though.
The good news is that, of all of the weaknesses to have, this one is usually the most survivable. At receiver, it's often relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Alex had taken Travis Kelce at 2.08 and Ty Chandler at 13.05 instead of Kenneth Walker and Ben Sinnott, respectively, his team score of 539 (11th) would have gone up by 38 points. His team score would be ranked 10th.
FP Steals: None
FP Reaches: Cole Kmet (10.06) - 3-round reach; Cairo Santos (13.01) - 11-round reach
Draft Grade: D+
RotoTrade is the lowest on Will's draft, giving him a C. While they like Jonathan Taylor and Deebo Samuel as his RB and top FLEX, they give all of his other starters grades between C- and C+, with Jordan Love and Pat Freiermuth their biggest concerns.
RotoTrade Analysis: "You have some good players that might give you a chance to compete this year, as long as you stay healthy. If you can make a trade that upgrades a starter or two, that would boost your playoff chances."
FootballGuys Analysis: "You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is.
"While this squad looks good, weakness at the supporting positions is keeping us from declaring it the league favorite. Still, you'd much rather be strong at QB/RB/WR and weak elsewhere than the reverse."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Will had taken Tyler Lockett at 12.01 and Zach Charbonnet at 13.12 instead of Jordan Mason and Roman Wilson, respectively, his team score of 681 (4th) would have gone up by 37 points. His team score would be ranked 2nd.
FP Steals: Javonte Williams (7.12) - 1-round value
FP Reaches: Adonai Mitchell (10.01) - 8-round reach; Roman Wilson (13.12) - 6-round reach
Draft Grade: B-
Where Anthony couldn't even break into the C+ range on either FantasyPros or RotoTrade, Football Guys is much kinder to Ant's team.
All three sites were united in strongly disliking Ant's running back talent. FootballGuys ranks his RB room 12th in the AFL, RotoTrade gave him an F and a dumpster fire gif for Najee Harris being his starter, and FootballGuys pointed out that he's barely in the RB2 conversation based on their rankings and yet he's still by far the best back on Ant's squad.
RotoTrade Analysis: "This roster is below average but isn't terrible. Making the playoffs would be a good accomplishment, but to do that, you'll likely need to upgrade several positions through trades or waiver wire pickups."
FootballGuys Analysis: "We'll start by complimenting you on your strength at quarterback and receiver. As you know, it's very difficult in a competitive league to assemble a team that is strong at QB, RB, and WR, so just about every team will have a weakness. As you probably suspect, we perceive yours to be at running back.
"In 2024, that's not an instant fantasy team killer like it might have been five years ago. And in this particular case, we absolutely think you're strong enough elsewhere to overcome it."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Anthony had taken Geno Smith at 15.06 and Jaleel McLaughlin at 16.07 instead of Khalil Herbert and Bo Nix, respectively, his team score of 619 (6th) would have gone up by 25 points. His team score would be ranked 5th.
FP Steals: Trey Benson (11.06) - 1-round value; Khalil Herbert (15.06) - 3-round value;
FP Reaches: Keenan Allen (6.07) - 3-round reach; Taysom Hill (8.07) - 3-round reach
Draft Grade: C+
While RotoTrade and FootballGuys each gave Brandon's title-defense team a C+, FantasyPros is much more optimistic.
FP gives more weight to the bench than the other two sites, though, so the message from all three seems pretty united. Brandon is set up the best to deal with injuries, but that might not actually help him if other teams in the league avoid the injury plague.
RotoTrade Analysis: "You have a slightly above average team and could make the playoffs if one or two players outperform their expectations. You are likely not strong enough to seriously compete for a title, but if you can make the playoffs, anything can happen."
FootballGuys Analysis: "In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). Your backs and receivers look just fine. And while it's probably not accurate to describe a team with Anthony Richardson as weak at the position, we do think you're dangerously thin. As Tom Brady reminded us in 2008, even quarterbacks with spotless health records can go down at any time. Thus the lack of depth at QB is what's keeping this team from getting our full endorsement."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Brandon had taken Tee Higgins at 4.06 and Kyle Pitts at 6.04 instead of Trey McBride and Xavier Worthy, respectively, his team score of 695 (2nd) would have gone up by 23 points. His team score would be ranked 2nd.
FP Steals: Dalton Kincaid (7.09) - 1-round value; Jaylen Warren (8.12) - 1-round value; Rico Dowdle (11.01) is the #1 RB in their consensus sleeper rankings
FP Reaches: Xavier Worthy (6.04) - 3-round reach
Draft Grade: B-
Nobody loves Sean's team this year, but nobody really hates it either. FantasyPros think's he's 5th in starter quality and 6th in bench quality, so right at the bottom of the upper half of the league. That's the kind of roster that makes Sean a leading contender for next year's Butkus Award, but maybe not so much the Sabol.
RotoTrade Analysis: "You have some good players that might give you a chance to compete this year, as long as you stay healthy. If you can make a trade that upgrades a starter or two, that would boost your playoff chances."
FootballGuys Analysis: "It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
"Footballguys even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Sean had taken Brandon Aiyuk at 2.06 and Trey Benson at 11.04 instead of Josh Jacobs and Mike Williams, respectively, his team score of 630 (5th) would have gone up by 26 points. His team score would be ranked 5th.
FP Steals: David Montgomery (5.04) - 2-round value; Zamir White (6.09) - 1-round value; Gus Edwards (8.09) - 1-round value; Ray Davis (14.09) - 4-round value
FP Reaches: None
Draft Grade: C+
The only active player in the AFL with multiple Sabol Trophies in his position, William is trying to get back to the promised land after a season where he made the playoffs by the skin of his teeth and needed some serious scheduling luck to do so.
Is this the right squad to get him there? Of the three sites we use only FootballGuys seems to think so, at least as with it's make-up immediately post-draft.
RotoTrade Analysis: "You have some good players that might give you a chance to compete this year, as long as you stay healthy. If you can make a trade that upgrades a starter or two, that would boost your playoff chances."
FootballGuys Analysis: "We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be a legitimate contender."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Sean had taken Jaylen Waddle at 4.02 and Jaleel McLaughlin at 16.02 instead of Rachaad White and Ja'Lynn Polk, respectively, his team score of 614 (7th) would have gone up by 32 points. His team score would be ranked 5th.
FP Steals: Ty Chandler (13.11) - 4-round value; Jaylen Wright (15.11) - 4-round value; Rachaad White (4.02) - 1-round value; Devin Singletary (8.02) - 1-round value; Luke Musgrave (14.02) - 1-round value; Trevor Lawrence (9.11) is the #1 QB in their consensus sleeper rankings; Musgrave is the #1 TE in their consensus sleeper rankings
FP Reaches: None
Draft Grade: B-
Our newest league member gets a solid grade here, but it should be noted that we have a bit of an anomaly in the method by which I organize this post.
Jeffery and Will Massimini got identical feedback from both RotoTrade and FootballGuys, as you'll see below. Despite this, RotoTrade gives Jeffery significantly higher playoff odds than Will, which vaulted him several spots higher in this draft analysis post. If anything, Will should probably be higher than Jeffery considering his roster score on FantasyPros is almost 75 points higher.
RotoTrade Analysis: "You have some good players that might give you a chance to compete this year, as long as you stay healthy. If you can make a trade that upgrades a starter or two, that would boost your playoff chances."
FootballGuys Analysis: "You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is.
"While this squad looks good, weakness at the supporting positions is keeping us from declaring it the league favorite. Still, you'd much rather be strong at QB/RB/WR and weak elsewhere than the reverse."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Jeffery had taken Deebo Samuel at 1.10 and Zack Moss at 8.03 instead of Travis Etienne and Jakobi Meyers, respectively, his team score of 608 (8th) would have gone up by 58 points. His team score would be ranked 5th.
FP Steals: George Kittle (6.03) - 1-round value; De'Andre Swift (7.10) - 2-round value
FP Reaches: Stefon Diggs (4.03) - 3-round reach; Jakobi Meers (8.03) - 5-round reach
Draft Grade: C
FantasyPros clearly hates Alex's 2024 squad and his chances of making it back the Sabol Bowl for a second consecutive year. Between ranking his starters 6th and his bench 11th, their experts clearly take issue with both FootballGuys and RotoTrade giving Alex a very solid B+ draft grade.
RotoTrade Analysis: "You have a strong team that should easily make the playoffs. If you stay healthy, you should be one of the few teams with a realistic shot to win the title."
FootballGuys Analysis: "Quarterback and tight end are the strengths of this squad. Despite not being strong at running back and receiver, we think this team should be above average.
"Nevertheless, we feel compelled to mention that the RB and WR positions make us a bit nervous and are likely to require some attention throughout the year. We'd feel much better if we knew you were committed to scooping up 2024's breakout players at RB and WR. Getting one or more of these would take this team to the next level."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Alex had taken Josh Allen at 2.05 and D'Andre Swift at 7.08 instead of Isiah Pacheco and Caleb Williams, respectively, his team score of 574 (10th) would have gone up by 24 points. His team score would be ranked 10th.
FP Steals: Rhamondre Stevenson (5.08) - 1-round value
FP Reaches: Stefon Diggs (4.03) - 3-round reach; Jakobi Meers (8.03) - 5-round reach
Draft Grade: B-
Like Alex Mayo, Stephen's draft grade is being dragged down by FantasyPros, which doesn't like his roster nearly as much as the other two sides. It will be very interesting to see how he handles the non-offensive positions on his team this year. FP ranks him 8th in the AFL at kicker and dead last at defense.
RotoTrade Analysis: "You have a strong team that should easily make the playoffs. If you stay healthy, you should be one of the few teams with a realistic shot to win the title."
FootballGuys Analysis: "We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back, and tight end is a plus for this team as well. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be a legitimate contender."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Stephen had taken Jaylen Waddle at 3.07 and D'Andre Swift at 7.07 instead of James Cook and Courtland Sutton respectively, his team score of 604 (9th) would have gone up by 39 points. His team score would be ranked 5th.
FP Steals: Chase Brown (9.07) - 1-round value; T.J. Hockenson (14.06) - 2-round value
FP Reaches: Rome Odunze (6.11) - 3-round reach
Draft Grade: B-
Since Eric pretty much always uses FantasyPros' ECR as his draft-day cheat sheet, it's never a surprise to see him near the top of their grade report. In fact, it's quite rare for that not to be the case.
The thing that sets this year apart from some recent season is the fact that everybody likes Eric's team. He certainly set himself up well with his traditional and taxi keeper situation. The biggest issue for his team across the board, including by FP's only positional rankings, is at running back.
RotoTrade Analysis: "You have a strong team that should easily make the playoffs. If you stay healthy, you should be one of the few teams with a realistic shot to win the title."
FootballGuys Analysis: "You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is. Tight end, of course, is also a big plus for this team.
"While this squad looks good, weakness at the supporting positions is keeping us from declaring it the league favorite. Still, you'd much rather be strong at QB/RB/WR and weak elsewhere than the reverse."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Eric had taken Josh Allen at 3.02 and Chris Godwin at 7.02 instead of Davante Adams and Jayden Daniels, respectively, his team score of 808 (1st) would have gone up by 14 points. His team score would be ranked 1st.
FP Steals: Zack Moss (8.11) - 1-round value; Blake Corum (10.11) - 1-round value; MarShawn Lloyd (14.11) - 3-round value
FP Reaches: Baltimore Ravens (11.07) - 3-round reach; Harrison Butker (13.02) - 3-round reach
Draft Grade: A
Cory is coming off his second Butkus Award in three years. In 2022, he used that status as the consolation winner to claim the first overall pick in the draft and he rode a strong team to one of the best seasons in recent memory. Unfortunately, an upset loss in the semi-finals ended his season prematurely and he had to settle for winning the AFL's first ever Pro Bowl.
Now that he's again captured the first overall pick, can he make another dominant run and perhaps finish the job this time? All signs seem to indicate he very well could do just that.
RotoTrade Analysis: "You have a solid team that should be right in the playoff mix this year. A few breaks and you could make a deep run."
FootballGuys Analysis: "We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back, and tight end is a plus for this team as well. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be among the top teams in the league."
FantasyPros Hindsight: If Cory had taken D'Andre Swift at 6.12 and Geno Smith at 16.12 instead of Dak Prescott and Braelon Allen, respectively, his team score of 687 (3rd) would have gone up by 12 points. His team score would be ranked 2nd.
FP Steals: Aaron Jones (5.09) - 1-round value; Tyler Allgeier (12.12) - 3-round value; Zach Charbonnet (15.01) - 5-round value; Braelon Allen (16.12) - 5-round value
FP Reaches: None
Draft Grade: A-
With that, we are ready to begin our 12th season of play! Good luck to everyone this season and be sure to come back every week for my league recaps where I’ll cover noteworthy performances and add historical context for our league, dating all the way back to its inception in 2013.