Written by Cory Puffett
Published September 5, 2023
With the 2023 AFL Draft completed, we begin the final countdown to the NFL regular season. On Thursday night the Kansas City Chiefs will unveil their Super Bowl LVII banner and play host to the Detroit Lions in the NFL’s annual kickoff game. With multiple fantasy-relevant offensive players on both sidelines, it should be a fun start to our 11th season in the AFL!
We’ve now had the same 12 managers in A Football Life for four straight seasons since Alex Mayo took over for Danny Hatcher in 2020. With a group of managers who are mostly enthusiastic to try new things, we decided to give FanDraft a try as the host of this year’s draft.
While the site layout grew on some of us over the course of the evening and I would certainly consider returning to it in the future if we were to in-person drafts, it left some things to be desired for those drafting remotely and a couple of our managers had brief connectivity issues that led to a handful of auto-picks.
Last year I pointed out a drop in pick-trading from 2020 to 2021 with the number cut in half from 16 picks traded for the 2021 draft to just 8 for the 2022 draft. I wondered whether that number would drop again.
On the contrary, it jumped right back up to the numbers from our Covid season as 16 picks swapped hands for this year’s draft. And that doesn’t even include a fourth-round pick that Brandon Saunders sent to Eric Meyer only to receive it right back in another trade in the same week!
Let’s get to the draft grades. Unlike my shamelessly biased Keeper Grades, I outsource my draft grading every year so that I can eliminate my own bias. I’ll be using insights from a few different websites to discuss each manager’s draft.
The gifs for each team come from RotoTrade’s analysis and FantasyPros provides a list of steals (players drafted 2+ rounds later than they’re valued) and reaches (players drafted 2+ rounds earlier than they’re valued) as well as hindsight suggestions on who managers should have drafted in various rounds to improve their team based on valuable players available later in the draft.
As always, managers will be listed in reverse order of projected standings based on FootballGuys’ projected playoff probability based on average in-season management. Last year’s winner, William Battle, had the second highest draft grade after the previous two winners barely made it into the top half of grades.
It’s worth noting that Eric Meyer had the highest grade last year and Andrew Perez was fourth, but they had the two worst records in the regular season in 2022. A lot can change based on injuries and in-season management.
After keeping Travis Kelce in the first and selecting Lamar Jackson in the second, it makes sense that every analyzer likes Brandon’s situation at the two onesie positions, but they have severe concerns about the rest of his lineup.
FantasyPros strongly dislikes Brandon’s team, giving him a D- and ranking his draft 10th in the league.
FootballGuys was only slightly kinder, giving him a C for his efforts, but they still rated his the worst draft in the league saying he “essentially needs to turn over significant parts of this roster.”
RotoTrade is much more optimistic, saying Brandon has “a good team that should be right in the playoff mix this year.” They’re rather bullish on the Jets defense. While the site expresses concern about Miles Sanders being his lead back, their bigger issues come at wide receiver and his bench. “You’ve got a concerning duo of starting pass catchers,” the analyzer began. It continued, “Your bench depth is not very good. An injury to one of your starters could be a big problem.”
Hindsight: The suggestions FantasyPros offered following the draft wouldn’t have made a significant difference in Brandon’s draft score. The biggest suggestion making the biggest difference would have only taken him from tenth to ninth. The site suggested that he should have passed on Michael Pittman in the 6th and instead taken Javonte Williams, then taken Romeo Doubs in the 12th in lieu of Tank Bigsby.
Steals & Reaches: Despite their suggestion that Brandon should have gone in different directions in the 6th and 12th rounds, FantasyPros does consider Tank Bigsby a steal for Brandon. Unfortunately, Bigsby was Brandon’s only steal while Michael Pittman (6.10), Nico Collins (10.05), and Rondale Moore (11.08) are all considered reaches.
Draft Grade: D-
FantasyPros graded Andrew and Brandon as a tie for the second worst draft in the AFL on Sunday night. Only Alex Mayo received a worse draft score, but FootballGuys likes the roster Alex constructed far better than either of these first two managers on our countdown.
FootballGuys suggests it is time for Andrew to “invest in some pension plans” due to the several elder statesmen on his roster, namely Matthew Stafford who is the only quarterback on his roster.
FantasyPros doesn’t believe he is strong at any position. They rank him fifth in the league at starting running back and starting tight end, but he is ranked sixth or lower at every other spot on his roster.
RotoTrade is much more optimistic about Andrew’s team. They gave him a D at quarterback but an A+ at running back and an A- at FLEX. They have similar concerns as expressed in Brandon’s analysis regarding the poor depth on his bench, and they gave him a C+ at wide receiver despite acknowledging that his starting duo “impressively includes two WRs in our Top 20.”
Hindsight: There were a few suggestions that could have made a significant difference for Andrew. One that would have moved him up from 11th to 8th on FantasyPros would have been to pass up Keenan Allen in the 3rd round and instead take Joe Burrow, then take Jakobi Meyers instead of Matthew Stafford in the 11th.
Steals & Reaches: Andrew’s only steal of the draft was his last one, when he took D’Onta Foreman with the ninth pick of the 16th round. Meanwhile, four of his picks are classified as reaches: Keenan Allen (3.04), Matthew Stafford (11.04), Tyler Boyd (12.09) and the Patriots defense (13.04).
Draft Grade: D-
Confusingly, FootballGuys gave Evan a C+ but says his team is “primed for the playoffs” while giving him less than a 50% chance of making it even if he has exceptional in-season management by comparison to the rest of the league. Maybe they were being sarcastic?
Their report suggests that “if you’re lucky enough to avoid the injury bug, you might be OK. But that’s a tough thing to have to count on.”
RotoTrade was the most critical of Evan’s team. While they gave him an A at tight end and an A- at wide receiver, they gave him poor grades virtually everywhere else. Worst of all was their analysis of his running back situation. They gave him an F, saying, “Alvin Kamara is a terrible solo running back.”
That’s probably a little bit harsh considering Kamara could be very good after he serves his three-game suspension. Still, it’s hard not to be critical of Evan’s lack of emphasis on the position during his draft. After having just three picks in the first four rounds and then taking Kamara as his first running back in the fifth, Evan didn’t add any other running backs until the seventh and eighth rounds of the draft.
Still, FantasyPros grants that Evan’s WR1, TE, and kicker all rank in the top three in the AFL and they like Brian Robinson as a top six option in his second flex spot.
Hindsight: None of FantasyPros’ suggestions would have brought Evan higher than 8th from his current spot at 9th in their draft power rankings. The biggest difference would have come by passing up on Brandin Cooks in the 6th and De’Von Achane in the 11th in favor of Javonte Williams and Rashod Bateman, respectively.
Steals & Reaches: Evan’s lone steal of the draft came with the eleventh pick in the 8th round when he took D’Andre Swift as his third running back. Each of the following four picks were considered reaches: Tyler Lockett (4.11), Brandin Cooks (6.11), Odell Beckham (9.02), and Harrison Butker (13.02).
Draft Grade: D
Will is the first manager in our list who received widely differing grades depending on the source.
FootballGuys has concerns regarding the youth of Will’s roster. Last year, he spent significant draft capital on Rachaad White, taking him in the 11th only to immediately stash him on his TAXI for the season. The move allowed him to keep White in the 16th round this year; time will tell whether that was worth it.
He’s back at this year. With new rules for our TAXI squad allowing two players to be placed there and more flexibility regarding when it has to be set for players to be eligible as TAXI keepers, he spent heavily on rookies, taking Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 7th, Roschon Johnson in the 11th, and Tyjae Spears in the 13th.
He also took several sophomore players including Kenny Pickett, Kenneth Walker, Garrett Wilson, Skyy Moore, and Chigoziem Okonkwo, prompting the site’s rhetorical question, “sophomore breakouts are a thing, right?” They believe he’ll need to remain vigilant for breakout running backs available on waivers, like Jamaal Williams was in many leagues last year and like James Conner was in 2021.
FantasyPros loved his decision to keep Garrett Wilson, a choice that contributed to the A+ he received in Sunday night’s Keeper Grades. Wilson is the #2 ranked WR2 in our league according to the site. They also really like Jalen Hurts as his starting quarterback, though FootballGuys always brings up that QB/WR stacks tend to make fantasy teams more inconsistent through the season, suggesting it may not have been a great decision to grab him and A.J. Brown. It worked out for Cory Puffett in his run to the #1 seed in the playoffs last season, though, so what do they know?
RotoTrade falls in the middle of the two other sites, but more on the side of FantasyPros, suggesting Will has an above average chance of being one of our four playoff teams. They really like his depth, but he did receive a C+ at tight end, with the analyzer writing, “Chigoziem Okonkwo is an OK starting TE” but “currently, you have zero TEs on your bench. You’re going to need one at some point.”
Hindsight: Nine of the hindsight suggestions given by FantasyPros would have lifted Will from the third best draft grade on the site to the highest. The four biggest chances would have involved taking DJ Chark instead of Tyjae Spears in the 13th. The second change in each of those four scenarios were: (1) Tony Pollard instead of A.J. Brown in the 1st; (2) James Cook instead of Christian Kirk in the 5th; Dalvin Cook instead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 7th; (4) D’Andre Swift instead of Skyy Moore in the 8th. The last of those is the one I probably would have suggested over any others.
Steals & Reaches: None of Will’s picks were graded as steals and only James Connor (6.03) is considered a value pick, having been taken one round later than he’s ranked. His three reaches were Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7.10), Skyy Moore (8.03), and the Steelers defense (12.03).
Draft Grade: B-
I have to apologize to Alex for getting his hopes up. Monday afternoon after discovering his new team name, I put together a logo for his team in case it makes the hall of fame because I was looking at the grades on FantasyPros and it had him at the top. I soon after discovered that I was looking at the grades from one of my mock drafts and not the real one.
FootballGuys made the same “pension plan” comment it made for Andrew’s draft thanks to his selections of Aaron Rodgers, DeAndre Hopkins, and Adam Thielen. Their analyzer agrees with RotoTrade’s that Alex has significant deficiencies at quarterback and wide receiver.
Interestingly, the two sites disagree about which of his two quarterbacks should be the starter. He took both Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers; RotoTrade projects the latter to be the primary starter while FootballGuys and FantasyPros both believe Cousins to be the better option. Alex took the two back-to-back in rounds eight and nine Sunday night.
RotoTrade really did not like Alex’s decision to draft the New York Giants defense. “Hopefully you’re considering streaming defenses,” they said. The Giants face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1. See the site’s provided gif for my thoughts on that.
FantasyPros is a little more forgiving of Alex’s draft. Yes, their analyzer hates his quarterback, receiver, and defense situation, and they barely have Saquon Barkley ranked among the top half of AFL starting running backs, but they love both of his projected flex players along with his tight end and kicker situations.
Hindsight: The suggestions provided by FantasyPros wouldn’t have moved the needle very much, but if he had taken Joe Burrow in the 4th round and Chigoziem Okonkwo in the 9th instead of T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Rodgers, respectively, he would have jumped from seventh to fifth in their draft rankings.
Steals & Reaches: FantasyPros didn’t grade any of Alex’s draft picks as steals, though the site does consider Rhamondre Stevenson a value pick in the second half of the 3rd round. Jerry Jeudy (5.01), Darnell Mooney (11.07), and Adam Thielen (13.07) were all considered reaches Sunday night.
Draft Grade: B-
I’m going to start with the good here because FantasyPros is incredibly pessimistic about Alex’s team, giving him the worst draft grade in the AFL.
RotoTrade says Alex has “a very good team that can win it all this year.” His worst positional grade from their analyzer is at the running back position where he received a B- and a comment that “Cam Akers is a pretty good solo running back” while his “bench backs are nothing to write home about.”
FootballGuys is not nearly as gung-ho on Alex’s squad, pointing out deficiencies at running back and wide receiver, but their analyzer says, “Despite not being strong [at these positions], we think this team should be in the mix.”
They love his quarterback strength, telling him to “air it out!” Alex practices self-control this year by not going quite so heavy on the Buffalo Bills. Last season five of his nine starters in Week 1 were Bills players. He didn’t abandon them completely, though. He kept Josh Allen in the 2nd round this year and drafted Stefon Diggs in the first, completing a stack he had in 2022.
FantasyPros doesn’t offer any concerns about Alex’s starting quarterback or his wide receiver, and they believe he has the best defense and kicker in the AFL in San Francisco and Justin Tucker. But they rank each of his other starting positions in the bottom five. They do like Tyler Higbee as a backup for Evan Engram.
Hindsight: One alteration in Alex’s draft would have brought him up from twelfth to tenth according to FantasyPros. Their analyzer really wishes he would have taken Bijan Robinson in the 1st over Stefon Diggs and then DJ Chark in the 15th instead of Gus Edwards.
Steals & Reaches: Alex had two selections graded as steals on Sunday night: Ezekiel Elliott in the 13th and Gus Edwards in the 15th. Meanwhile, he reached on five players according to FantasyPros: Mike Evans (4.07), Kadarius Toney (8.07), JuJu Smith-Schuster (8.12), the San Francisco 49ers (10.07), and Justin Tucker (11.06).
Draft Grade: B-
No matter which site you ask, our defending AFL champion appears to be solidly in the middle of the pack coming out of Sunday’s draft. Nobody hates his team but nobody loves it either.
RotoTrade isn’t particularly high on Justin Fields or David Njoku, and they’re not particularly high on Tua Tagovailoa or Dalton Schultz as alternatives, which is a bit surprising to me.
FootballGuys has a much rosier outlook at both positions. They have Fields ranked #7 at quarterback and Tagovailoa #15, and they also love their combined schedule, suggesting that William may want to consider playing the matchups rather than relying one as his plug-and-play starter all year long. At tight end, their analyzer doesn’t consider either of his options elite but believes there’s a good chance either that one of them will break out or that he can get good production by streaming the two in the same way they suggest he do at quarterback.
All three analyzers are happy with Bijan Robinson as his starting running back, but only RotoTrade likes his wide receiver and flex situation. FantasyPros barely has his flex position in the top half of the league, but they rank him #7 if the AFL at both WR1 and WR2 with Cooper Kupp and Terry McLaurin his projected starters.
Hindsight: One change in William’s draft would have brought him up from sixth to just one point behind fourth in their post-draft power rankings. They suggest he would have been better off taking Courtland Sutton instead of David Njoku in the 7th followed by a pivot from Tank Dell to Juwan Johnson in the 16th.
Steals & Reaches: William’s only steal of the draft, according to FantasyPros, was his 14th round selection of Kenneth Gainwell. His reaches were: Terry McLaurin (4.04), Quentin Johnston (9.09), the Buffalo Bills (11.09), and Younghoe Koo (13.09).
Draft Grade: B
While FantasyPros and FootballGuys are lukewarm on Anthony’s roster construction, RotoTrade is a little less critical.
FootballGuys points out that “there’s usually defenses in free agency,” further criticizing his choice to take the New Orleans Saints as a backup by saying, “We think the Dallas Cowboys are the #2 defense in the league... You probably don’t need a backup.”
While RotoTrade doesn’t specifically criticize Ant for taking a backup defense, and still offered him a B for his bench depth, they also pointed out that he “can probability get away with starting [the Cowboys] every week.”
RotoTrade says Ant is “likely one of the best teams in your league with a great chance to win your league’s title,”
FootballGuys points out that Anthony is very weak at running back, but says, “In 2023, that’s not an instant fantasy team killer like it might have been five years ago. And in this particular case, we absolutely think you’re strong enough elsewhere to overcome it.”
FantasyPros, conversely, doesn’t have the same high opinion of Anthony’s receivers, ranking him sixth at WR1, fifth at WR2, and sixth at TE, plus eleventh and eighth at the two FLEX spots with Christian Watson and Antonio Gibson, respectively.
Hindsight: None of FantasyPros’ recommended changes would have lifted Anthony above his eighth spot in our post-draft power rankings. The biggest change would have come from taking Joe Burrow in the 4th instead of Christian Watson and Rashod Bateman in the 9th instead of Geno Smith. Honestly, I think that would’ve been kind of silly considering he has Patrick Mahomes as his starting quarterback.
Steals & Reaches: Anthony had no steals in Sunday’s draft according to FantasyPros, and his only value pick was Antonio Gibson with his second pick of the 8th round. His three reaches were Zay Flowers (7.12), Michael Thomas (8.01), and Jake Elliott (13.12).
Draft Grade: B
Eric is “primed for the playoffs,” according to FootballGuys. It comes across as much less sarcastic now than it did when they said the same thing about Evan’s squad while giving him a very low playoff probability.
Eric’s strengths are at running back and tight end, and while FantasyPros doesn’t particularly like Jaylen Waddle as his WR1, they love Chris Olave as his WR2.
While FootballGuys also considers Waddle a below-average WR1, they don’t dock Eric nearly as much in his draft grade because they believe he has at least two Top-12 guys at the position (DK Metcalf is also on his roster).
RotoTrade really likes Eric’s wide receiver depth. “You’ve got an excellent duo of starting pass catchers,” their analyzer writes, “which impressively includes two wide receivers in our Top 20 (highlighted by Jaylen Waddle). You have TWO Top 40 WRs on your bench (led by Calvin Ridley), which gives you a lot of depth and flexibility for trades.”
Quarterback projects to be Eric’s position of weakness this season. He waited until the 9th round to select his first of two quarterbacks, Dak Prescott. While FootballGuys doesn’t really like Derek Carr as his backup, ranking him 23rd at the position, they do note that they have a strong combined schedule, which could allow Eric to play the matchups and have serviceable production at the position.
Hindsight: FantasyPros offers two alternative choices, either of which would have lifted him from fifth to fourth and that in conjunction with each other would have lifted him to the second highest draft grade in the league. One change would have been to draft Joe Mixon instead of Chris Olave in the 2nd round and Romeo Doubs instead of Jerick McKinnon in the 12th. The other would have been to draft Joe Burrow in the 3rd instead of DK Metcalf and then DJ Chark in the 15th instead of Derek Carr.
Steals & Reaches: FantasyPros really liked several of Eric’s picks and they graded three of his selections as steals in the draft: Zach Charbonnet (10.10), Jerick McKinnon (12.10), and Sam LaPorta (16.10). The only selection the site graded as a reach was Daniel Carlson (13.03).
Draft Grade: B+
Cory’s draft was within 15 points of Will Massimini’s score, putting him fourth in FantasyPros’ post-draft rankings. Wide receiver and tight end project to be positions of concern for him but the site loves the running backs he’ll be using at the flex, along with his primary back, Nick Chubb.
FootballGuys says that “while it’s probably not accurate to describe a team with Joe Burrow as weak at the position, we do think you’re dangerously thin.” The analyzer brings up Tom Brady’s 2008 season as a reminder that quarterbacks can go down at any time and it’s important to be prepared, something Cory isn’t with his lone backup being Bryce Young, who has the same bye week as Burrow and who Cory immediately placed on his TAXI squad after Sunday’s draft.
With essentially only one quarterback on the roster, plus just one tight end, one kicker, and one defense, it would be easy for analyzers to fault Cory for over-indexing on his skill positions. Instead, RotoTrade’s only poor grade for his team was at one of those skill positions.
The site gave Cory a C+ at wide receiver despite giving him a nearly identical assessment as it did for Eric, only swapping out the word “OK” for “excellent” as the fourth word of the entry.
Hindsight: FantasyPros’ top suggestion for Cory would have tied him for the site’s highest draft grade in the AFL. The analysis suggests he should have drafted Trevor Lawrence in the 6th and Juwan Johnson in the 16th instead of Dallas Goedert and Bryce Young in the two respective rounds. Respectfully, I don’t see that much value in adding a second starting caliber quarterback when I already have a really good one while taking a significant downgrade with the only tight end on my roster.
Steals & Reaches: None of Cory’s draft picks were classified as steals, though he did have two value picks: Samaje Perine (9.05) and Raheem Mostert (10.08). Cory’s only pick graded as a reach by FantasyPros was Allen Lazard (10.01).
Draft Grade: A-
FantasyPros liked Sean’s draft better than anybody else’s in the league, so there’s certainly an argument to be made for him to have the number one spot here.
With Daniel Jones and Pat Freiermuth the long players at the positions on Sean’s roster, there are some concerns here. But as most seasoned veterans know, it’s better to be weak at those positions if it means you’re strong at running back and wide receiver.
Sean only has four wide receivers on his roster, but two of them are Ja’Marr Chase and Davante Adams and he also had Drake London as a taxi keeper from last season. His fourth receiver is a rookie who will likely go immediately onto his taxi squad for this season.
Meanwhile, half of his roster is running backs with eight of them on his team. It may be a bit much, but the chances of one of those depth pieces breaking out to join Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison at the top are pretty high.
RotoTrade is much less excited about Sean’s team than the other two analyzers I used for this writeup. He earned a D at quarterback and a C for depth, so while they like his RB, WR, and FLEX situations, and they’re also pleased with the Eagles at defense and accepting of Jason Sanders as his kicker, they don’t view Sean’s running backs as players that have much breakout potential.
Hindsight: With the highest graded draft according to the site, none of FantasyPros’ suggestions would have improved his standing. Their top suggestion, though, is that he should have taken Khalil Herbert in the 7th instead of Pat Freiermuth and then selected Tyler Higbee over Jaylen Warren in the 11th.
Steals & Reaches: Sean had no steals during the draft according to FantasyPros, but Alexander Mattison (5.07), Dalvin Cook (8.02), Daniel Jones (9.11), Damien Harris (10.12), and Jaylen Warren (11.11) were all graded as value picks. His only reach in the draft was the Philadelphia Eagles (12.02).
Draft Grade: A-
Considering Stephen had five picks in the first three rounds of Sunday’s draft, it should be considered disappointing that he didn’t have the highest graded draft on FantasyPros, coming in nine points below Sean’s score of 852.
Still, FootballGuys gave him an A+, one of the few times I’ve ever seen that grade on their site. Running back, receiver, and FLEX are all considered positions of massive strength on each of the three draft analyzers. Justin Herbert is considered a mid-tier starting quarterback but FantasyPros and FootballGuys are both happy with Jared Goff and Kyler Murray as depth pieces for him.
With Cole Kmet as his only tight end, everybody is concerned about this position for Stephen.
Perhaps most confusing is the disparity in opinions on his defensive situation. FantasyPros doesn’t particularly like the Commanders as his lone defense, ranking Stephen’s roster eighth in the AFL at the position. FootballGuys suggests Washington could be a solid first punch of a committee approach if paired with the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, or Jacksonville Jaguars (the Packers were drafted on Sunday but the other two are on waivers). Meanwhile RotoTrade believes Stephen could get away with starting the Commanders every week!
Ultimately, I’m a little bit underwhelmed with Stephen’s draft. No doubt he should have one of the best teams in the league this year, but he probably should have come away much better considering the high draft pick capital he had entering Sunday. After all, we’ve seen Eric come out of the draft with a projected playoff probability well over 90% multiple times in his career despite never having as many early-round picks as Stephen had.
Hindsight: FantasyPros provided 15 alternative pairs of picks Stephen could have made Sunday night, each of which would have vaulted him over Sean for the best draft grade on the site. The one that would have made the most sense to me would have been to take the Baltimore Ravens in the 13th instead of Kyler Murray and then Russell Wilson in the 14th instead of the Commanders.
Steals & Reaches: Stephen had no steals Sunday night according to Fantasy Pros, but he did have three value picks: Javonte Williams (6.12), Jared Goff (12.12), and Jeff Wilson (13.01). His reaches were Treylon Burks (9.01) and Kyler Murray (13.11).
Draft Grade: A-
Last year the AFL champion was 2nd in our draft grades and the runner up was 9th, meanwhile the sacko/Snyder “winner” was 12th. The managers who finished with the two worst records in the AFL were 1st and 4th and the manager who led the league in wins and points during the regular season was 5th.
Time will tell if this year’s grades are more accurate than last year’s. Be sure to come back every week on Wednesday for my league recaps where I’ll cover noteworthy performances and add historical context for our league, dating all the way back to its inception in 2013.