Matt Ryan's Hall of Fame Case

Written by: Eric Meyer

Published: July 12, 2020

Hello, everyone! As you may know, the Sportsballers concluded their most recent episode with a friendly discussion regarding Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and his case for future Hall of Fame enshrinement. Unfortunately, we had some technical difficulties and the debate was cut short, so as promised, here's my analysis of Matt Ryan's career so far and whether he's on the road to Canton.

It goes without saying that there are many roads to the Hall of Fame.  Some guys make it by winning championships or individual accolades.  Others build their résumé with statistical prowess.  Some are just so gifted that achievements or numbers cannot explain their impact.  Does Matt Ryan meet the threshold for any of these paths to greatness?  We're about to find out.

Career Accomplishments

This is probably the easiest area to evaluate for Matt Ryan.  He has won an MVP and made one Super Bowl appearance.  For comparison, I've looked up how many quarterbacks have exactly one MVP and one Super Bowl loss.  Here's the list:

Earl Morrall*

Ken Anderson

Dan Marino

Boomer Esiason

Steve McNair

Rich Gannon

Cam Newton

Matt Ryan

Cam Newton is still playing, but out of the six retired players, only Dan Marino has been inducted into the Hall of Fame.  Meanwhile, every quarterback who has won multiple MVP awards is either a Hall of Famer or a shoo-in when eligible.  Clearly, Ryan's one MVP and one Super Bowl appearance alone aren't going to cut it, but perhaps his statistics will bolster his case.

*Morrall's situation is complicated.  He led the 1972 Dolphins through the AFC playoffs while filling in for an injured Bob Griese.  Griese returned to start in Super Bowl VII and led Miami to victory.  Morrall also took over for an injured Johnny Unitas mid-game in Super Bowl V, which the Colts won.  Nevertheless, his only Super Bowl start was for the Colts in Super Bowl III, which was a losing effort to the Jets.  Therefore, his Super Bowl record is officially 0-1 like everyone else on this list.  What a weird career.

Statistical Proficiency

As shown above, winning an MVP and making a Super Bowl don't necessarily earn you a gold jacket.  Only one player has made the Hall of Fame with such a limited trophy case; Dan Marino.  Of course, it's easily understood why Marino is the exception.  He's one of the greatest statistical passers of all-time.  Marino retired holding nearly every volume record of significance while also being one of the most efficient passers of all-time, boasting the 5th-highest ANY/A+* in NFL history.

I am by no means demanding that Ryan post numbers as great as Marino's, but I do think it's important to evaluate his stats to see how well they measure up.  I searched quarterbacks by their ANY/A+ between 2008-2019, the duration of Ryan's career so far.  I filtered it to only include quarterbacks who have made at least 100 starts in that stretch.  This way, I can evaluate Ryan against quarterbacks that were more-or-less part of the same era.  Here's what the search yielded:

Ryan ranks 9th by these parameters, which doesn't scream "Hall of Fame" to me, but all eight guys in front of him have solid Hall of Fame cases of their own, except for perhaps Romo.  Besides, a singular number that sums up Ryan's entire career isn't very thorough, so I want to look at Ryan's season-by-season performance rather than just lumping them all together.

I decided to look at the top 60 seasons by ANY/A+ between 2008-2019.  I chose 60 because I wanted an idea of how often Ryan has had a top 5 type of season in his 12-year career.  I also controlled for injuries by limiting the list to players who made at least 12 starts.  If you want to see the data for yourself, click here.  Below, I ranked the players based on their number of seasons in the top 60.

Drew Brees - 9

Tom Brady - 7

Philip Rivers - 6

Aaron Rodgers - 5

Peyton Manning - 4

Ben Roethlisberger - 3

Tony Romo - 3

Matt Ryan - 2

Once again, Ryan isn't a slouch for finishing behind these other players.  All of those QBs were/are excellent players.  However, I believe his case gets a lot tougher when I mention who else has two seasons in this top 60:

Kirk Cousins

Jared Goff

Patrick Mahomes

Dak Prescott

Kirk Cousins couldn't secure a longterm deal with the team that drafted him.  He made this list twice in five seasons.  Jared Goff is a quarterback whose contract is chided as one of the worst in football.  He made this list twice in three seasons.  Patrick Mahomes, who is obviously tremendous, made this list twice in two seasons.  Dak Prescott is regularly questioned about whether or not he's a franchise quarterback.  He made this list twice in four seasons.  Matt Ryan made this list twice in 12 seasons.

To be clear, none of these guys are bad quarterbacks.  Perhaps this data indicates that the public underrates them.  But save for Mahomes, none of these guys have what most would consider hall-of-fame potential.  Yet, they manage to appear on this list as often as Matt Ryan does with far fewer seasons under their belts.  That's pretty telling.

Many might point to Ryan's volume statistics as an avenue for enshrinement, but I don't buy that one bit.  Sure, there's a good chance that Ryan will finish in the top 10 in career yards and touchdowns when he retires, but Ken Anderson and Boomer Esiason both achieved that when they finished playing.  Neither of them has a bust sitting in Canton.  It's understood that quarterbacks are playing longer and throwing for more yards and touchdowns today, so there's no justification for using volume numbers without context to make a Hall of Fame case.  The bottom line is, Matt Ryan isn't statistically proficient enough to to be worthy of a spot in the Hall.

*ANY/A+ is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, indexed.  This allows control for era, setting the league average at 100.  I chose to use ANY/A because it's the most comprehensive box score statistic for passing efficiency and has the highest correlation to winning among quarterback metrics.

Extraordinary Ability

There are some examples of Hall of Fame players whose statistics didn't look incredible due to their less-than-ideal situations.  A few quarterbacks have failed to win awards or Super Bowls for the same reason.  These players still showed their unbelievable ability and elevated their flawed teams, which justified their Hall of Fame status.  Is Matt Ryan one of these quarterbacks?  Is he a player whose greatness can't just be measured by numbers?

In a word, no.  Let's be honest.  What game-changing skill does Ryan possess?  Does he dissect a defense like Tom Brady?  No.  He wasn't even allowed to audible much during his MVP season.  It was Kyle Shanahan's show.  Ryan doesn't have a rocket arm like Aaron Rodgers, or deadly accuracy like Drew Brees, or Houdini-like escapability like Russell Wilson.  He's simply a good quarterback who has generally had great offensive support.  That's good enough to earn a lot of money and respect, but Hall of Fame?  I'm not sold.

I don't see a justifiable case for Matt Ryan to be inducted in to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.  I'm actually far more convinced of my stance now than I was before I started this exercise.  Obviously there is still time for him to boost his résumé, and if he leads the Falcons on another deep playoff run or two, the situation could change.  As of right now, Ryan doesn't make the cut.