Super Bowl LX Picks

Since 2001 when I first began making, or at least tracking, my Super Bowl predictions, I am 16-9. This is my 26th year making an official Super Bowl prediction and it is just the seventh time I am doing so without using Madden. While I am 13-6 all-time when using Madden, my record making picks completely on my own is just 3-3 including a miss last year when I chose the Chiefs to beat the Eagles.

This year I am going with the Seattle Seahawks. Their defense is one of the best we've ever seen. By total defensive DVOA, they barely rank outside of the Top 20 defenses of all-time (including Aaron Schatz's estimated defensive DVOA's from 1950 through 1977). While the passing defense of this year's squad is not as prolific as the Legion of Boom in 2013, the difference is not huge and the run defense was so good this year that this is actually the best all-around defense Seattle has ever fielded.

Offensively, Seattle doesn't feel like they should be a dominant force, but they ranked 10th in DVOA this year (5th in passing, 12th in rushing). They boast the offensive player of the year in Jaxon Smith-Njigba (shame on Druski, by the way, for his shenanigans during the NFL Honors, put some respect on JSN's name), a healthy Kenneth Walker III who is one of the most dynamic running backs in the game, and a quarterback in Sam Darnold who has led two different teams to 14-win seasons in the past two years.

On the other side, Mike Vrabel (shame, also, on Tiffany Haddish, too, but at least I don't think she purposefully butchered his name) has done an incredible job turning a team with 13 losses each of the past two seasons into a 14-win team in 2025. Drake Maye took a huge step forward this year and was a deserving runner-up for the MVP award. They've got a couple of very good running backs, including a veteran who has stepped up in the bright lights of the postseason. Their wide receiver corps is filled with good but not great receivers and Maye has done well to find the hot hand almost every game. And the defense wasn't great this year (23rd in total DVOA and bottom half in each discipline), they've also stepped up this postseason.

While I think Seattle will win, I expect a tight game. The Patriots are well-coached and very disciplined. They don't take the ball away a lot, but they also don't turn it over very often. I'm taking Sam Darnold as my MVP because he's not been able to get the ball to JSN enough for the star wide receiver to stand out in any individual game, I don't trust running backs to win the award, and I can't begin to venture a guess as to which defensive player will step up this time around, though I would bet the MVP will actually be one of the members of this outstanding defense if I could take the lot of them.

Final Score: Seattle Seahawks - 27, New England Patriots - 24
MVP: Sam Darnold

Final Score: Seattle Seahawks - 27, New England Patriots - 24
MVP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

The Seahawks are definitely the better team and are expected to win. They have a dominant defense and a capable offense compared to the Patriots’ good but unremarkable units on each side of the ball. If Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold can remain poised and not turn the ball over then they’ll be world champions.

I'm taking Cooper Kupp again, because why not? He's as good as he ever was. I think the Pats take away JSN and make Kupp beat them.

Final Score: Seattle Seahawks - 23, New England Patriots - 20
MVP: Cooper Kupp