Written by Cory Puffett
Published September 1, 2024
Note: This was written in the hours leading up to our 12th annual AFL Draft at 7pm on Sunday, September 1. It was held for publication until after the draft so as to not give a competitive advantage to other managers who would have access to some of Cory’s player rankings.
Another season of fantasy football is upon us! It’s Labor Day, which means our league of record, A Football Life, held its draft last night. Keepers have become an increasingly important part of our league's identity with the addition of a 'TAXI keeper' last season and some modifications to how they are handled heading into last night's draft.
With time in increasingly short supply for me, let's jump right into this year's keeper grades, assigned based on my own player rankings (CPR).
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (2nd round, 24th overall)
Keeper value: +11 vs CPR (#13)
Other notable keeper options:
Travis Etienne, Jac RB (+81; could be kept 97th overall, CPR #16)
As always, I’ll begin with myself and then run through the rest of the league alphabetically.
For a while I was sure I was going to keep Travis Etienne for a third straight year. Ultimately, I decided that the frustrating inconsistency I dealt with from him in 2023, particularly in the second half of the season, was not worth it so I began exploring other options.
I traded with Brandon Saunders for Kyren Williams, who is eligible as a 15th round keeper, figuring I would take a dynamic running back duo by pairing him with Christian McCaffrey with my first overall pick.
Stephen April threw a wrench in my plans when he traded CMC to Alex Kincaid. As much as I like Kyren, his keeper value, and the potential value next year and beyond, and my lack of concern over some recent news that some in the fantasy community would consider red flags, I knew who I preferred between the two.
So I executed another trade with Alex, swapping the two players and gaining back a bit of the draft capital I gave up in my initial trade with Brandon. I didn't get all of it back, but considering Stephen likely would have traded away CMC regardless, I say it was worth giving up a bit of capital to ensure I could take CMC first overall and then pivot from Etienne to my guy from my team, "Sun God."
Keeper Grade: A-
K - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (5th round, 45th overall)
Keeper value: +36 vs CPR (#9)
Other notable keeper options:
Jamyr Gibbs, Det RB (+19; could be kept 31st overall, CPR #12)
Tyreek Hill, Mia WR (+2; could be kept 7th overall, CPR #5)
It would have been quite the long-ish con if Stephen had gone from renaming his team Darth Ja'MarrMarr last week to pivoting away from the 5th round value of Cincinnati's top offensive weapon.
Any time you can get a Top 10 fantasy player outside the first two rounds, you count yourself blessed as a manager in a keeper leaguue.
Jamyr Gibbs is certainly an intriguing option in the 4th, but he's still sharing the Detroit backfield and as long as Joe Burrow stays healthy this year, Chase will likely provide more consistency at a position of utmost importance in our league.
Stephen did have an option to keep Marvin Mims Jr in the 16th round as a taxi keeper but decided against it. Based on my ranking of Mims, which would have made him a -40 value at that spot, this was a good decision. FantasyPros, however, felt that Mims would have been a solid value there, giving him a keeper value rating almost a full round ahead of Stephen's 16th round spot.
Keeper Grade: A
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (3rd round, 27th overall)
Keeper value: -22 vs CPR (#49)
Other notable keeper options:
Taysom Hill, NO TE (+103; could be kept 171st overall, CPR #68)
Alvin Kamara, NO RB (+28; could be kept 51st overall, CPR #23)
D'Andre Swift, Chi RB (+21; could be kept 94th overall, CPR #73)
Evan seems to find new ways to make me scratch my head in confusion every year over his keeper selections.
In 2022 he elected to keep Cooper Kupp in the 4th round instead of Justin Jefferson in the 9th despite Jefferson being ranked between two spots ahead of Kupp and three spots behind him in pre-draft rankings.
So when 2023 rolled around, instead of choosing between Kupp in the 2nd or Jefferson in the 7th, assuming he still ended up with both, he had to choose between either of them in the 2nd round.
Ultimately 2023 was a bit of a wash for Evan's options. The three better options based on my rankings were Alexander Mattison, Geno Smith, and Tony Pollard. While Geno remained solid and would have probably wound up being his best choice with the 167th overall pick, we all know how disasterous last season was for the two former backup running backs thrust into starting roles for their respective NFL teams.
Now this year Evan is back at it again, making a choice reminiscent of when Andrew Perez kept George Kittle with the third overall pick in the 2021 draft at a -26 value. This is certainly not as egregious considering it's only the 3rd round. But Andrews also has even more of a recent injury history than Kittle had at that time and Andrews has some competition at the position from Isaiah Likely that Kittle has never had since his ascent to fantasy stardom.
Personally, I would've gone with Alvin Kamara with this pick. Even with possibly the worst active head coach in the NFL, he remains a viable fantasy option at a positive value.
Keeper Grade: F
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1st round, 6th overall)
Keeper value: +2 vs CPR (#4)
Other notable keeper options:
Jake Ferguson, Dal TE (+100; could be kept 174th overall, CPR #74)
Zamir White, LV RB (+49; could be kept 91st overall, CPR #42)
Josh Jacobs, GB RB (+16; could be kept 30th overall, CPR #14)
Josh Jacobs remained marked as Ant's keeper for 2024 until less than 20 minutes until the keeper deadline when he pivoted to CeeDee Lamb.
There are a lot of question marks surrounding Jacobs this year, from his move from Las Vegas to Green Bay to the fact he'll now be in an offense and under a coach that likes to utalize more than one back. With AJ Dillon likely to take some reps or even full drives from him and the fantasy community looking to Marshawn Lloyd to provide some explose change-of-pace reps, will Jacobs's efficiency numbers increase enough to keep him viable as a top option?
I can't blame Anthony for not taking the chance. CeeDee Lamb has become an elite fantasy player over the past season and a half. While his teammate provides some excellent value, the difference between getting Ferguson in the 15th round and potentially taking him a handful of rounds earlier at ADP may not be worth passing up on the guy on your favorite team.
Keeper Grade: A-
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (1st round, 11th overall)
Keeper value: +8 vs CPR (#3)
Other notable keeper options:
Tank Dell, Hou WR (+127; could be kept 182nd overall, CPR #55)
Jayden Reed, GB WR (+67; could be kept 179th overall, CPR #112)
James Cook, Buf RB (+43; could be kept 62nd overall, CPR #19)
Hallelujah! Arthur Smith is gone and the hope of a new day springs eternal for Bijan Robinson. Getting a player just about everyone has ranked in the Top 5 with the penultimate pick of the first round is a nice little steal.
There are still plenty of questions about what Bijan Robinson's usage will ultimately look like, but he was a terrific fantasy player as a rookie and should be even better as a sophomore. I might have gone a different direction with the options William had, but this was certainly not a bad decision. He'll just have to hope this coaching staff doesn't pull was Smith's did against Tampa Bay in Week 7 last year.
Keeper Grade: A
K - Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (16th round, 189th overall)
TK - Jalin Hyatt, WR, New York Giants (15th round, 172nd overall)
Keeper value: +97 vs CPR (#92)
Taxi Keeper value: -64 vs CPR (#236)
Other notable keeper options:
Drake London, Atl WR (+107; could be kept 141st overall, CPR #34)
The former Mr. Irrelevant is only going to miss repeating that title by three picks in the 2024 AFL Draft. With both players valued in the 16th round, Sean got to decide which would move up to the 15th and he chose the Giants sophomore receiver.
FantasyPros dosn't particularly like the decision to keep Hyatt, but they at least have him ranked 36 spots ahead of where I have him.
With a new coaching staff and an actual good quarterback, albeit one recovering from a serious injury, I would've rolled the dice for one more year on London to keep the high keeper value next year for a very talented skill position player. But considering his sporadic production and Purdy's consistency within a good offense, Sean made a solid choice.
Keeper Grade: B+
K - Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams (15th round, 173rd overall)
TK - Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (16th round, 188th overall)
Keeper value: +163 vs CPR (#10)
Taxi Keeper value: +84 vs CPR (#104)
Other notable keeper options:
Kyler Murray, Ari QB (+71; could be kept 149th overall, CPR #78)
Dalton Kincaid, Buf TE (+53; could be kept 116th overall, CPR #63)
Jonathan Taylor, Ind RB (+22; could be kept 29th overall, CPR #7)
If it wasn't for one other manager making a couple savvy transactions last season, this would be the runaway best keeper grade in the AFL this year. With a total value closing in on +250, and a value over +280 by FantasyPros ECR, there's not much to say here. Yes Alex ultimately passed up on the consensus #1 overall player in fantasy football, but Kyren Williams is primed for a stellar sophomore campaign and Rashee Rice appears well on his way to becoming Patrick Mahomes's top receiving target after Travis Kelce.
Keeper Grade: A+
K - Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (8th round, 85th overall)
TK - Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (16th round, 181st overall)
Keeper value: +60 vs CPR (#25)
Taxi Keeper value: +39 vs CPR (#142)
Other notable keeper options:
Rachaad White, TB RB (+113; could be kept 133rd overall, CPR #20)
Zack Moss, Cin RB (+52; could be kept 180th overall, CPR #128)
Josh Downs (TK), Ind WR (+3; could be kept 181st overall, CPR #178)
If you follow FantasyPros ECR, the Tyjae Spears decision was a no brainer. I looked at it as a worthwhile keep, but nothing crazy. FP has Spears inside their Top 100, though!
Will is determined to hold on to his guy, going the opposite route as Sean Kennedy with Drake London. We never got to find out what Wilson would do with Aaron Rodgers last year, so the upside is certainly there this season.
Still, with only some dude named Bucky Irving behind him, I think I would've gone with Rachaad White four rounds later considering I have him ranked five spots ahead of Wilson.
Keeper Grade: A-
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (11th round, 128th overall)
Keeper value: +110 vs CPR (#18)
Other notable keeper options:
Isiah Pacheco, KC RB (+50; could be kept 65th overall, CPR #15)
Gus Edwards, LAC RB (+37; could be kept 176th overall, CPR #139)
Last year I gave Alex an F for keeping Josh Allen over Chris Olave. I was absolutel right to do so even in hindsight as Josh Allen's true keeper grade wound up being -6 and Olave's would've been around +50.
But it didn't matter as Alex made a run to his first Sabol Bowl appearance.
This year I get to go completely in the opposite direction and hopefully, for Alex's sake, his season trajectory doesn't also go in the opposite direction.
Achane showed remarkable versatility in both the ground game and pass game. He remains a bit undersized, which is why I'm a little suprised to see Raheem Moster slipping as far as he has in ADP. But there's no doubt that if Achane stays healthy, he's the back you want more of in this offense.
Pacheco would be a fine option, but with the 8th and 17th picks under his control, Alex can still grab him or a similar player in one of those early rounds and trust that he's got an electric, potential league-winner in the back half of the draft.
Keeper Grade: A
K - Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (9th round, 106th overall)
Keeper value: +48 vs CPR (#58)
Notable keeper options:
Jerome Ford, Cle RB (+38; could be kept 178th overall, CPR #140)
Jordan Love, GB QB (+11; could be kept 106th overall; CPR #95)
After Andrew Perez initially did not elect to keep a player, he left the league Sunday morning. Fortunately, we managed to find someone who was available, interested, and who I've known for literally as long as I can remember, nearly my entire life.
Jeffery quickly identified Mostert as the best value on his new team and elected to keep him in the 9th round, one round ahead of where he was draft last season because his team did not have a 10th round pick. This still represents a terrific value for a running back that spent much of the 2023 season as a Top 3 fantasy option and should be back in that conversation should anything happen to his backfield mate who was kept two rounds later by Alex Mayo.
Keeper Grade: A
K - Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions (16th round, 191st overall)
TK - C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (15th round, 170th overall)
Keeper value: +144 vs CPR (#47)
Taxi Keeper value: +124 vs CPR (#67)
Other notable keeper options:
Dak Prescott, Dal QB (+22; could be kept 98th overall, CPR #76)
With a total keeper value of +168 by my rankings and +195 by FantasyPros' ECR, Eric is the pre-draft winner this year. The question is can he use that to finally end this four-year slump during which he has not once finished as a Top 5 team in the AFL?
Keeper Grade: A++
K - Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams (15th round, 177th overall)
TK - Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (16th round, 184th overall)
Keeper value: +156 vs CPR (#21)
Taxi Keeper value: +124 vs CPR (#60)
Other notable keeper options:
Nico Collins, Hou WR (+85; could be kept 112th overall, CPR #27)
Trey McBride, Ari TE (+79; could be kept 136th overall, CPR #57)
Breece Hall, NYJ RB (+40; could be kept 42nd overall, CPR #2)
When you have a Top 5 fantasy player, and in fact the guy I have ranked #2 overall for our league's scoring settings, I tend to air on the side of taking that guy at a slightly lesser value.
That said, Brandon still got someone just outside the Top 20 with solid upside and long-term keeper potential for our league and that year-after-year value isn't something I factor into these keeper scores so I won't knock Brandon for passing on Breece Hall.
The value on Richardson could be outstanding. I like him as a fantasy quarterback even if I think he's going to end up being a worse version of Justin Fields in the long run. As long as he's the starter for a team, he's worth rostering and likely worth starting on a regular basis. I just expect him to lose the keys to his offense within the next couple seasons.
Keeper Grade: A+
Be sure to come back for my AFL Draft Grades article later this week!