Embedded Files
Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 10, 2024
We are a third of the way through our season and we are down to just one undefeated team. First-year manager Jeffery McDonald is perfect so far; but what does that mean for his playoff prospects?
Well, if you ask playoff computer, which runs a combination of actual permutations and probability, largely based on the Monte Carlo Method, he's got nearly an 80% chance of making the playoffs. He's not quite a lock, but it certainly would take quite a collapse.
Looking back on our league's history, those collapses are more frequent than one might expect, especially in recent years. Through 2020, we'd had five teams reach a 5-0 record in our league. All five made the playoffs and two of them went on to win the Sabol Bowl. Since 2021, which just so happens to be the year we extended our regular season from 14 games to 15, two of three teams to start 5-0 have ultimately missed the playoffs.
Certainly these past meltdowns have no bearing on Jeffery's playoff prospects this season, but there is still plenty of season left. With three other excellent managers in his division, he'll be watching his six in the coming weeks.
Also of interest, we currently have just four teams above .500 and seven teams sitting at 2-3. In 11 previous seasons in the AFL, we'd never had more than five teams with a 2-3 record after five weeks. That was back in 2019, which was also the only season until this year where we had eight teams below .500 at this stage in the season.
Historically, 36.4% of teams that start 2-3 or worse through five games make the playoffs in the AFL, suggesting at least two of our four teams above .500 could wind up in the consolation ladder at season's end.
Of note this week, Cory Puffett and Sean Kennedy entered the week as the only two managers who had scored at least 100 point in every game this season. Both failed to hit that mark in Week 5, making this the earliest in any AFL season that all 12 managers have had at least one week with fewer than 100 points.
Game of the Week: Will Massimini (96.97) vs Jeffery McDonald (142.46)
Game of the Week: Will Massimini (96.97) vs Jeffery McDonald (142.46)
All-time H2H: Jeffery leads series 1-0
A trip to London gave Garrett Wilson his first 20-point fantasy game since Week 13 of the 2022 season. Unfortunately for Will, nobody else in his lineup could even muster 15 points and he left a pair of 25-point outings on his bench last Thursday night.
Â
If there is any solace for Will to find in leaving all those points on his bench, it’s the fact his optimum score was nearly seven points shy of Jeffery’s actual score. Lamar Jackson, who already had three games with 24+ points, had his best outing of the season. Mike Evans, who already had two 20-point games, also had his best fantasy output of the year. George Kittle and the Chicago Bears defense each added more than 15 points to the effort.
Â
Jeffery is now 2-0 in his career when playing in the game of the week while Will has fallen to 8-12. Jeffery already has more Peyton Manning Awards through five weeks than Saswat Misra had in three season in the AFL from 2013 through 2015 and is just one Manning Award behind both Adam Perez and Alex Kincaid.
William Battle (112.70) vs Stephen April (163.85)
William Battle (112.70) vs Stephen April (163.85)
All-time H2H: Stephen leads series 7-2
Brandon Saunders (135.22) vs Alex Mayo (77.90)
Brandon Saunders (135.22) vs Alex Mayo (77.90)
All-time H2H: Brandon leads series 5-3
Cory Puffett (90.04) vs Eric Meyer (124.78)
Cory Puffett (90.04) vs Eric Meyer (124.78)
All-time H2H: Series tied 7-7
Anthony Battle (103.28) vs Evan Ash (112.87)
Anthony Battle (103.28) vs Evan Ash (112.87)
All-time H2H: Evan leads series 12-5
Sean Kennedy (87.08) vs Alex Kincaid (92.43)
Sean Kennedy (87.08) vs Alex Kincaid (92.43)
All-time H2H: Sean leads series 6-2
Free Agent All-Stars vs Tom Brady Award Winner
Every week, we take the best possible lineup made of players who were available on waivers in the AFL at the end of the week and compare it to the top scoring team of the week in our league. Included percentages for the Free Agent All-Star players represent the percentage of FleaFlicker leagues in which each the player was rostered as of data gathering (usually Tuesday morning).
Final Score:
Free Agent All-Stars – 165.29
TB Award Winner – 163.85
YTD Tom Brady Award Winner Record: 1-4
IR Report
In our league, any player can be placed on IR regardless of injury designation. Once on IR, the player cannot be moved, dropped, or traded for a minimum of three weeks.
After Week 1, IR placements are retroactive to the prior week as long as the player was already on the team's roster but was not in the starting lineup during that prior week. This means those players will be eligible to come off IR after just a two-week stay.
Weekly Manager Awards
How were this week's $10 divvied up? Weekly awards with no financial benefit can also be found here
Weekly Manager Awards
How were this week's $10 divvied up? Weekly awards with no financial benefit can also be found here
$4 - Tom Brady Award (Highest Scorer) Stephen April #11 in his career
163.85 points Ranks #21 all-time
$1 - Norm Van Brocklin Award (Top QB) Stephen April #5 in his career
Joe Burrow, 35.15 3rd career QB1 week
$1 - Adrian Peterson Award (Top RB) Evan Ash #16 in his career (T-3rd most all-time)
Tank Bigsby, 26.44 1st career RB1 week
$1 - Flipper Anderson Award (Top WR) Stephen April #5 in his career
Ja'Marr Chase, 37.70 4th career WR1 week
$1 - Shannon Sharpe Award (Top TE) Stephen April #9 in his career
Tucker Kraft, 23.25 1st career TE1 week
$1 - Scott O'Brien Award (Top K) Anthony Battle #16 in his career (T-3rd most all-time)
Ka'imi Fairbairn, 17.60 6th career K1 week
$1 - Chuck Noll Award (Top DEF) Brandon Saunders #10 in his career
Denver Broncos, 24.35 10th DEF1 week all-time
David Carr Award (Lowest Scorer) Alex Mayo #4 in his career
#1 Power Ranking Jeffery McDonald #2 in his career
#12 Power Ranking Anthony Battle #2 in his career
Coaching Report
Who earned or cost him team the most points or a win based on coaching decisions? Find out here.
Coaching Report
Who earned or cost him team the most points or a win based on coaching decisions? Find out here.
Chuck Knox Award (Best Coach) Evan Ash #14 in his career (T-most all-time)
Evan added Tre Tucker off waivers this week instead of Trey Sermon, who already had a higher projection and saw that expected total skyrocket after Jonathan Taylor was ruled out of the Colts' Week 5 contest. Evan started Tank Bigsby, who had a lower projection than either Tucker or Sermon and wound up earning a league-high 10.89 points and a win thanks to his coaching decision.
Hue Jackson Award (Worst Coach) Alex Kincaid #9 in his career (4th most all-time)
Alex waited until Thursday to put in a waiver claim for a defense to replace the only unit on his roster, the Detroit Lions who were on bye. The Commanders had the highest projection of available defenses and went unclaimed on Wednesday. Because he waited, Alex had to settle for the New England Patriots, who still had a solid performance. But he never plugged them in either, instead leaving the Detroit Lions in his lineup. He nearly cost his team the win and did cost them a league-high 16.17 points with the coaching blunder.
Managers took a combined 10 coaching risks this week and were successful on 5. The league's net point differential was -7.33
To date in 2024, the AFL has a .500 success rate on 66 total coaching risks with a -123.29 point differential
Manager Luck Report
Who suffered an unlucky loss or earned a lucky win this week? Who have been the luckiest and unluckiest managers this season? Find out here.
Manager Luck Report
Who suffered an unlucky loss or earned a lucky win this week? Who have been the luckiest and unluckiest managers this season? Find out here.
Lucky Wins
Alex Kincaid 3-8 breakdown (#9 scorer for the week)
Unlucky Losses
William Battle 6-5 breakdown (#6 scorer for the week)
Luckiest managers through Week 5 (all-play)
Jeffery McDonald 1.3 wins above expected
Sean Kennedy 0.7 wins above expected
Eric Meyer 0.6 wins above expected
Luckiest managers through Week 5 (median scoring)
Jeffery McDonald 1 wins above expected
Anthony Battle 1 wins above expected
Will Massimini 1 wins above expected
Unluckiest managers through Week 5 (all-play)
William Battle 1.3 wins below expected
Stephen April 0.8 wins below expected
Will Massimini 0.5 wins below expected
Unluckiest managers through Week 5 (median scoring)
William Battle 2 wins below expected
Stephen April 1 wins below expected
Positional Top 100 Leaderboards
These players posted one of the 100 best performances in AFL history within their position groups.
Positional Top 100 Leaderboards
These players posted one of the 100 best performances in AFL history within their position groups.
Joe Burrow, QB Stephen April 35.15 Points (#96 all-time)
Lamar Jackson, QB Jeffery McDonald 35.08 Points (#98 all-time)
Ja'Marr Chase, WR Stephen April 37.70 Points (#22 all-time)
Tucker Kraft, TE Stephen April 23.25 Points (#77 all-time)
Ka'imi Fairbairn, K Anthony Battle 17.60 Points (T-#59 all-time)
Younghoe Koo, K Brandon Saunders 17.50 Points (T-#61 all-time)
Denver Broncos Brandon Saunders 24.35 Points (#95 all-time)
Missed Opportunities
The players riding their managers' benches would have been key contributors.
Missed Opportunities
The players riding their managers' benches would have been key contributors.
Cory Puffett left the #3 QB performance of the week on his bench
Kirk Cousins, 34.92 Points
Alex Mayo left the #5 QB performance of the week on his TAXI
Caleb Williams, 25.59 Points
Brandon Saunders left the #3 RB performance of the week on his bench
Rico Dowdle, 20.30 Points
Jeffery McDonald left the #4 RB performance of the week on his bench
D'Andre Swift, 20.18 Points
Swift was the RB3 in Week 4, also sitting on Jeffery's bench
Will Massimini left the #3 WR performance of the week on his bench
Darnell Mooney, 27.50 Points
Jeffery McDonald left the #4 WR performance of the week on his bench
DJ Moore, 25.70 Points
Eric Meyer left the #5 WR performance of the week on his bench
Tee Higgins, 25.40 Points
Top 100 Team Scores
These managers' earned one of the 100 highest team scores in AFL history.
Top 100 Team Scores
These managers' earned one of the 100 highest team scores in AFL history.
Stephen April 163.85 Points (#21 all-time)
Weekly League-wide Point Total
How high- or low-scoring was this week in the context of AFL history?
Weekly League-wide Point Total
How high- or low-scoring was this week in the context of AFL history?
The AFL scored 1,339.08 points in Week 5
This does not rank in the Top 50 in league history out of 160 regular season weeks)
Scoring Anomalies
Did the second-highest scoring team lose? Or the second-lowest scoring team win? These sorts of anomalies and more are included here.
Scoring Anomalies
Did the second-highest scoring team lose? Or the second-lowest scoring team win? These sorts of anomalies and more are included here.
Cory Puffett's league-leading active streak of 100-point games ended at 8, as did Sean Kennedy's second-longest active streak of 7 games
William Battle, Jeffery McDonald, and Eric Meyer take over as the active leaders with their 2nd straight 100-point outings.
Anthony Battle's league-leading active drought of 100-point games ended at 3, which was tied for his career long.
Alex Mayo takes over as the active leader with his 3rd straight sub-100-point outing.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse