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Written by Cory Puffett
Published December 5, 2024
The AFL playoff picture got much clearer over Thanksgiving weekend. Sean Kennedy and Anthony Battle locked down the AFL East and West division titles, respectively.
In Anthony's case, because of the relative weakness of his division, his title simultaneously eliminated his three division rivals from playoff contention altogether. At least two of them will join Eric Meyer in the Snyder bracket of the consolation ladder in two weeks.
In the East, Jeffery McDonald and defending champion Brandon Saunders are both alive in the wild card hunt. Brandon is only barely in the hunt, granted he's much more alive than Cory Puffett is from his current home in fourth place in the AFL Central.
The only managers who currently control their fates are Jeffery and the two managers at the top of the Central, Alex Kincaid and Stephen April.
Alex is at the top of the Central with a one-game lead over Stephen. Since Stephen already beat Alex back in Week 7, if Stephen wins this week, their Week 15 matchup will be for the division title and a playoff birth.
Meanwhile, Jeffery has a Week 14 date with the current favorite to win the Snyder Belt, Eric. This sets him up perfectly to take advantage of whatever happens in the Central. If Alex Kincaid wins out and claims the Central title, two wins guarantees Jeffery will finish ahead of Stephen and earn the wild card playoff berth. If Stephen manages to win out, including that Week 15 de factor AFL Central title game, those two wins for Jeffery would bring us all the way back to Week 1 when Jeffery earned the Tom Brady Award and beat Alex Kincaid, clinching him the tiebreaker.
Now, if Alex wins this week and Stephen loses, then we'll have all three division champions crowned with only the wild card left to decide. Here are all of this week's clinching scenarios.
Stephen April can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win -AND- losses by Jeffery McDonald and Evan Ash
Alex Kincaid can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win -AND- a loss by Stephen April
A win -AND- a loss by Jeffery McDonald
That's it. Nobody else can clinch this week. But there are plenty of elimination scenarios to look at, too.
Cory Puffett currently has an estimated <0.1% chance of making the postseason and can be eliminated with:
A loss
A win by Jeffery McDonald
A win by Evan Ash
A win by Brandon Saunders
Evan Ash currently has an estimated 3.0% chance of making the postseason and can be eliminated with:
A loss
Wins by Stephen April and Jeffery McDonald
Brandon Saunders currently has an estimated 6.1% chance of making the postseason and can be eliminated with:
Wins by Stephen April and Alex Kincaid
A loss -AND- a win by Stephen April
A loss -AND- a win by Jeffery McDonald
Jeffery McDonald currently has an estimated 45.9% chance of making the postseason and can be eliminated with:
A loss -AND- wins by Stephen April and Alex Kincaid
Game of the Week: Alex Mayo (74.23) vs Anthony Battle (123.09)
Game of the Week: Alex Mayo (74.23) vs Anthony Battle (123.09)
All-time H2H: Anthony leads series 6-3
In the least competitive matchup of the week, Anthony easily handled his business against Alex to lock up the AFL West division title.
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Considering Anthony had the only 30-point scorer and the only two other 20-point scorers in the game, it’s no surprise he won by nearly 50 points, 20 more than the next biggest blowout of the week.
Brandon Saunders (136.42) vs Eric Meyer (105.76)
Brandon Saunders (136.42) vs Eric Meyer (105.76)
All-time H2H: Eric leads series 10-8
Jeffery McDonald (110.11) vs Sean Kennedy (131.12)
Jeffery McDonald (110.11) vs Sean Kennedy (131.12)
All-time H2H: Sean leads series 2-0
Will Massimini (96.35) vs William Battle (105.44)
Will Massimini (96.35) vs William Battle (105.44)
All-time H2H: Will leads series 9-6
Cory Puffett (102.64) vs Alex Kincaid (103.90)
Cory Puffett (102.64) vs Alex Kincaid (103.90)
All-time H2H: Alex leads series 6-3
Stephen April (97.49) vs Evan Ash (98.68)
Stephen April (97.49) vs Evan Ash (98.68)
All-time H2H: Evan leads series 7-6
Free Agent All-Stars vs Tom Brady Award Winner
Every week, we take the best possible lineup made of players who were available on waivers in the AFL at the end of the week and compare it to the top scoring team of the week in our league. Included percentages for the Free Agent All-Star players represent the percentage of FleaFlicker leagues in which each the player was rostered as of data gathering (usually Tuesday morning).
Final Score:
Free Agent All-Stars – 158.77
Brandon Saunders – 136.42
YTD Tom Brady Award Winner Record: 4-9
IR Report
In our league, any player can be placed on IR regardless of injury designation. Once on IR, the player cannot be moved, dropped, or traded for a minimum of three weeks.
After Week 1, IR placements are retroactive to the prior week as long as the player was already on the team's roster but was not in the starting lineup during that prior week. This means those players will be eligible to come off IR after just a two-week stay.
TAXI Report
In our league, any rookie can be placed on the TAXI squad at any time.
Rookies placed on the TAXI on or before Week 8, who remain there without ever being removed until the end of the Sabol Bowl, are eligible as TAXI Keepers for the following year, so long as they never appeared in a starting lineup prior to Week 8. Each manager is permitted to designate one TAXI Keeper in addition to their Traditional Keeper.
Weekly Manager Awards
How were this week's $10 divvied up? Weekly awards with no financial benefit can also be found here
Weekly Manager Awards
How were this week's $10 divvied up? Weekly awards with no financial benefit can also be found here
$4 - Tom Brady Award (Highest Scorer) Brandon Saunders #10 in his career
136.42 points Does not rank in Top 100 all-time
Brandon is the eighth manager in AFL history to win 10 Tom Brady Awards in his career
$1 - Norm Van Brocklin Award (Top QB) Anthony Battle #16 in his career (4th most all-time)
Josh Allen, 30.32 14th career QB1 week
$1 - Adrian Peterson Award (Top RB) Will Massimini #20 in his career (2nd most all-time)
Bucky Irving, 29.55 1st career RB1 week
$1 - Flipper Anderson Award (Top WR) Jeffery McDonald #1 in his career
Mike Evans, 23.80 7th career WR1 week
$1 - Shannon Sharpe Award (Top TE) William Battle #10 in his career (t-3rd most all-time)
Brock Bowers, 24.78 1st career TE1 week
$1 - Scott O'Brien Award (Top K) Will Massimini #25 in his career (most all-time)
Chris Boswell, 15.60 9th career K1 week
$1 - Chuck Noll Award (Top DEF) Cory Puffett #15 in his career (t-4th most all-time)
Dallas Cowboys, 18.18 8th DEF1 week all-time
David Carr Award (Lowest Scorer) Alex Mayo #5 in his career
#1 Power Ranking Sean Kennedy #20 in his career (t-3rd most all-time)
#12 Power Ranking Eric Meyer #17 in his career (t-3rd most all-time)
Coaching Report
Who earned or cost him team the most points or a win based on coaching decisions? Find out here.
Coaching Report
Who earned or cost him team the most points or a win based on coaching decisions? Find out here.
Chuck Knox Award (Best Coach) Alex Kincaid #7 in his career
With just one coaching risk, Alex earned a league-high 13.95 points and a win by starting Cooper Rush instead of Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
Honorable Mention: Evan Ash also earned a win with a nearly-identical 13.23 points by succeeding on his lone coaching risk, starting Mark Andrews at tight end instead of Cade Otton.
Hue Jackson Award (Worst Coach) Eric Meyer #7 in his career
With two failed coaching risks, Eric cost his team a league-high 37.33 points and a win to earn his second straight Hue Jackson Award. He lost 14.60 points with his usual risk of starting C.J. Stroud at QB while leaving Jayden Daniels on his TAXI and another 22.73 points by starting the Baltimore Ravens at defense instead of the New York Jets, who he picked up early in the week and then left on the bench despite their higher projection.
Managers took a combined 13 coaching risks this week and were successful on 4. The league's net point differential was -62.05
To date in 2024, the AFL has a .433 success rate on 194 total coaching risks with a -468.95 point differential
Manager Luck Report
Who suffered an unlucky loss or earned a lucky win this week? Who have been the luckiest and unluckiest managers this season? Find out here.
Manager Luck Report
Who suffered an unlucky loss or earned a lucky win this week? Who have been the luckiest and unluckiest managers this season? Find out here.
Lucky Wins
Evan Ash 3-8 breakdown (#9 scorer for the week)
Alex Kincaid 5-6 breakdown (#7 scorer for the week)
Unlucky Losses
Jeffery McDonald 8-3 breakdown (#4 scorer for the week)
Eric Meyer 6-5 breakdown (#6 scorer for the week)
Luckiest managers through Week 13 (all-play)
Jeffery McDonald 1.7 wins above expected
Alex Kincaid 1.7 wins above expected
Sean Kennedy 1.3 wins above expected
Anthony Battle 0.7 wins above expected
Luckiest managers through Week 13 (median scoring)
Jeffery McDonald 2 wins above expected
Alex Kincaid 2 wins above expected
Will Massimini 1 wins above expected
Evan Ash 1 wins above expected
Unluckiest managers through Week 13 (all-play)
William Battle 2.0 wins below expected
Alex Mayo 1.0 wins below expected
Eric Meyer 1.0 wins below expected
Cory Puffett 0.8 wins below expected
Unluckiest managers through Week 13 (median scoring)
William Battle 3 wins below expected
Brandon Saunders 1 wins below expected
Stephen April 1 wins below expected
Eric Meyer 1 wins below expected
Positional Top 100 Leaderboards
These players posted one of the 100 best performances in AFL history within their position groups.
Positional Top 100 Leaderboards
These players posted one of the 100 best performances in AFL history within their position groups.
Brock Bowers, TE William Battle 24.78 Points (#61 all-time)
Missed Opportunities
The players riding their managers' benches would have been key contributors.
Missed Opportunities
The players riding their managers' benches would have been key contributors.
Eric Meyer left the #2 QB performance of the week on his taxi
Jayden Daniels, 28.91 Points
Alex Mayo left the #3 QB performance of the week on his bench
Tua Tagovailoa, 26.94 Points
Alex Mayo left the #4 Po performance of the week on his taxi
Caleb Williams, 25.39 Points
This was the second week in a row Daniels, Tagovailoa, and Williams were Top 4 QBs while not starting in their managers' lineups.
Brandon Saunders left the #5 QB performance of the week on his IR
Jameis Winston, 25.37 Points
Eric Meyer left the #1 WR performance of the week on his bench
Jerry Jeudy, 38.25 Points
This would have ranked #21 on the AFL's all-time single game wide receiver list.
Stephen April left the #2 WR performance of the week on his bench
Terry McLaurin, 24.20 Points
Evan Ash left the #5 WR performance of the week on his bench
Keenan Allen, 21.65 Points
Anthony Battle left the #2 TE performance of the week on his bench
David Njoku, 20.65 Points
Alex Mayo left the #5 TE performance of the week on his bench
Dalton Schultz, 15.30 Points
Eric Meyer left the #1 DEF performance of the week on his bench
New York Jets, 27.62 Points
This would have ranked #45 on the AFL's all-time single game defense list.
Sean Kennedy left the #2 DEF performance of the week on his bench
LA Chargers, 24.04 Points
Top 100 Team Scores
These managers' earned one of the 100 highest team scores in AFL history.
Top 100 Team Scores
These managers' earned one of the 100 highest team scores in AFL history.
None in Week 13
Weekly League-wide Point Total
How high- or low-scoring was this week in the context of AFL history?
Weekly League-wide Point Total
How high- or low-scoring was this week in the context of AFL history?
The AFL scored 1,285.23 points in Week 13
This does not rank in the Top 50 in league history out of 168 regular season weeks
Scoring Anomalies
Did the second-highest scoring team lose? Or the second-lowest scoring team win? These sorts of anomalies and more are included here.
Scoring Anomalies
Did the second-highest scoring team lose? Or the second-lowest scoring team win? These sorts of anomalies and more are included here.
Stephen April's league-leading active streak of 100-point games ended at 5
Sean Kennedy, Alex Kincaid, and Brandon Saunders take over as the active leaders after each recorded his 3rd straight 100-point outing.
Eric Meyer's league-leading active drought of 100-point games mercifully ended at an AFL record-tying 7 games
Will Massimini takes over as the active leader with his 4th straight sub-100-point outing, which sets a new career long.
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