Keeper value: +117 vs CPR (#23)

Other notable keeper options:

Christian Watson, GB WR (+81; could be kept 125th overall, CPR #44)

Jaylen Waddle, Mia WR (+23; could be kept 44th overall, CPR #21)

As always, I’ll begin with myself and then run through the rest of the league alphabetically.

After taking Etienne in the 16th round of his rookie season following the Lisfranc injury he suffered during training camp, I kept him in the 16th round last year. His cost increases by 25% of our draft this year, but even so getting a solid RB2 with RB1 upside in the 12th round is impossible to pass up.

With Rodgers gone in Green Bay, there was no chance I would take Watson over him, and if I’m honest it was harder to turn my back on Jalen Hurts in the 6th than it was to pass up Waddle in the 5th.

Ultimately, though, there was no decision to be made. I’ll be keeping Etienne as the last traditional keeper off the board in this year’s draft.

Keeper Grade: A

Keeper value: +19 vs CPR (#5)

Taxi Keeper value: +23 vs CPR (#169)

Other notable keeper options:

Cam Akers, LAR RB (+71; could be kept 120th overall, CPR #49)

Kenneth Walker III, Sea RB (+70; could be kept 97th overall, CPR #27)

Stephen really had me scratching my head in the weeks leading up to the draft. Most fantasy players tend to overvalue the guys on their own roster but Stephen was egregiously undervaluing them instead!

First, he explored the possibility of picking up Calvin Ridley to keep as an 8th rounder, but to do so he had to trade for an 8th round draft pick and he ultimately tipped his hand to Eric Meyer who beat him to the punch.

Then, Friday evening as the keeper deadline approached, he surprised the league by reaching an agreement with Sean Kennedy to trade a 10th round pick for Tyreek Hill and a 13th rounder.

The question is: why did he do this? He had two really solid options. Cam Akers is a guy nobody feels really good drafting, but he had six straight double-digit outings to end the regular season last year with 20+ touches in each of the last three.

Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker III was a huge part of why Stephen remained in the playoff race and ultimately won the consolation tournament. After a slow start to the season, from Weeks 5 through 18 he scored double digits in all but three games, one of which he missed due to injury and one of which was Seattle’s bye week.

Now look, there’s no doubt that getting one of the most electric wide receivers in the game at the end of the second round is solid value but he also gave up three rounds of draft value to do this, even if it comes in the back half of the draft.

Stephen has five draft picks in the first three rounds of this year’s draft, but now he’s using one of them on his keeper. Based on where I have Kenneth Walker ranked, he could have had six players ranked in the top 36, with one of them coming in the early ninth.

As for his taxi keeper, who is already slotted in as the AFL’s Mr. Irrelevant for 2023, I have one word regarding Jameson Williams: meh.

Keeper Grade: B-

Keeper value: +/-0 vs CPR (#2)

Other notable keeper options:

Alexander Mattison, Min RB (+98; could be kept 122nd overall, CPR #24)

Geno Smith, Sea QB (+86; could be kept 167th overall, CPR #81)

Tony Pollard, Dal RB (+64; could be kept 74th overall, CPR #10)

Evan already knows that I hate this keeper choice, and he doesn’t care, so I won’t try to convince him. But I will explain why I hate this so much.

Firstly, Jefferson wasn’t his first choice for keeper. He made a switch in the final day leading up to our keeper deadline away from Cooper Kupp. That’s right, not one of the other three notable keeper options. He had both Kupp and Jefferson as 1st round keeper options this year, and even before Kupp’s late-week set back to his hamstring injury he was ranked below Jefferson by virtually every expert out there.

Evan had two other players ranked as either first or second round talents who he could have gotten far later in the draft. In fact, with Christian McCaffrey not being kept, there was a 50/50 chance Evan could get Justin Jefferson with the 2nd overall pick and he could have had great value on either Mattison or Pollard, the two players FantasyPros would have suggested Evan decide between.

In fact, if Evan really liked Kupp enough to keep him over Jefferson in the first place, prior to that injury it would have made even more sense to keep one of the running backs because at least one of the two wide receivers would have been there for him to take at 1.02.

The other reason I hate this pick so much is because Evan could have been keeping Justin Jefferson in the 7th round this year if he had kept him in the 9th last year instead of Cooper Kupp in the 4th, a decision I generously only docked Evan a letter grade for in last year’s keeper grades. If Evan hadn’t traded his 2nd round pick to Stephen, he still at least could have kept Kupp in the 2nd this year and gotten either McCaffrey or Jefferson at 1.02 last night.

But I digress; ultimately, Evan likes his guys and he got one of them, even if he’s right where he’s ranked. Justin Jefferson is one of the best in the league and one of the two most valuable players in fantasy; there’s no way I can give somebody an F for keeping him, as much as I want to do so.

Keeper Grade: C+

Keeper value: +49 vs CPR (#11)

Other notable keeper options:

Deshaun Watson, Cle QB (+62; could be kept 133rd overall, CPR #71)

Miles Sanders, Car RB (+49; could be kept 92nd overall, CPR #43)

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det WR (+43; could be kept 61st overall, CPR #18)

The two biggest values based on my rankings were actually Taysom Hill (+84 vs CPR) and the Eagles defense (+68 vs CPR), but Hill’s scoring is too volatile and there’s never a reason to keep a defense regardless of the potential value.

This was a no-brainer. Jacobs and St. Brown were the two best players on Ant’s roster, both were huge values, but Jacobs is ranked several spots higher while only having to be taken one spot ahead. Granted it’s an entire round ahead in terms of keeper value for next year, so there might be an argument to be made for keeping the Sun God so that he’d have 4th round value next year as opposed to Jacobs who will be a 3rd round keeper in 2024.

In any case, Ant was the manager who gave Josh Jacobs a shot to prove everybody wrong last year and now he reaps the benefits. Well done!

Keeper Grade: A

Keeper value: +74 vs CPR (#62)

Other notable keeper options:

David Njoku, Cle TE (+50; could be kept 129th overall, CPR #79)

Amari Cooper, Cle WR (+44; could be kept 81st overall, CPR #37)

While William did have two other solid options, one of whom is ranked higher in my overall list, I think this is exactly the right decision for him.

William has historically been a fan of mobile quarterbacks. Cam Newton was his primary starter from 2013-2015, Russell Wilson had at least seven starts for him in each season from 2016-2021 except for 2019 when he had Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield, and then last year his two quarterbacks were Kyler Murray and Fields.

We’ll see if he pairs Fields with somebody else, but after Murray went down with injury last year, Fields was terrific for William, scoring over 100 fantasy points in just four starts to close out the regular season before he averaged just 12 points per game in William’s run to victory in Sabol Bowl X.

Now William gets Fields at a terrific value, enough of one that he could be a solid keeper option for the next year or two, especially if he takes the step forward with his passing that many in the industry expect to see from him.

Keeper Grade: B+

Keeper value: +55 vs CPR (#4)

Taxi Keeper value: +108 vs CPR (#74)

Other notable keeper options:

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE RB (+55; could be kept 83rd overall, CPR #55)

Khalil Herbert, Chi RB (+33; could be kept 131st overall, CPR #98)

Sean took several risks last season leaving London on his taxi squad all season, but it pays off now as he gets incredible value for a sophomore wide receiver with a high floor.

Obviously, there are a lot of question marks around the production we can expect from London, but his issues in 2022 was largely because of poor quarterback play. Marcus Mariota led the NFL in off-target percentage. Even with my own concerns about Desmond Ridder, I expect a big step forward from London this year.

As for Sean’s traditional keeper, there’s no debate. After keeping Chase in the 7th last year, he was taxed two full rounds. Chase is still just as much a value over ranking as Rhamondre Stevenson and his true ranking is between 20 and 24 spots higher depending on whether you look at FantasyPros’ ECR or my own ranking.

Keeper Grade: A++

Keeper value: +51 vs CPR (#87)

Other notable keeper options:

Brian Robinson, Was RB (+51; could be kept 151st overall, CPR #100)

DeVonta Smith, Phi WR (+20; could be kept 62nd overall, CPR #42)

Dameon Pierce, Hou RB (+20; could be kept 49th overall, CPR #29)

This keeper doesn’t really move the needle for me that much. Don’t get me wrong, I think Jahan Dotson is incredibly talented. There’s a greater-than-zero chance he breaks out this year. But Sam Howell is such a big question mark that I’m not sure I would want to spend my only keeper on one of his wide receivers, even in the 12th round.

The +51 value is a draw, certainly, but honestly I think I would have preferred the higher floor of Dameon Pierce or DeVonta Smith, whose overall rankings are basically flipped from mine on FantasyPros. In either case, they’re both graded as 3rd or 4th round talents compared to Dotson, who is a 7th rounder on FantasyPros and an 8th rounder in my own rankings.

Keeper Grade: B+

Keeper value: +86 vs CPR (#25)

Taxi Keeper value: +133 vs CPR (#50)

Other notable keeper options:

            DeAndre Hopkins, Ten WR (+42; could be kept 106th overall, CPR #64)

            Pat Freiermuth, Pit TE (+12; could be kept 87th overall, CPR #75)

I mean, how much do I really need to say here. Will knocked it out of the park with his 10th round pick last year, snatching up the NFL’s offensive rookie of the year. Meanwhile he found a rookie who he never had to consider activating but is projected to be a major contributor to Tampa’s offense in 2023.

Keeper Grade: A+

Keeper value: -14 vs CPR (#33)

Other notable keeper options:

            Chris Olave, NO WR (+66; could be kept 102nd overall, CPR #36)

            Raheem Mostert, Mia RB (+7; could be kept 115th overall, CPR #108)

I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw that Alex decided to keep Josh Allen over Chris Olave. This felt like such a slam dunk pick to me. A sophomore wide receiver getting an upgrade at quarterback with a domed home field in the 9th round? Sign me up, but apparently not Alex.

As I said in Evan Ash’s paragraph, there’s nothing wrong with getting your guy. But you have to take draft capital into consideration.

Now Alex is in a bit of a dicey situation. If he wanted Josh Allen this badly, he was going to have to spend his second-round pick on him. Where Evan very well may have been able to get Justin Jefferson at value without keeping him, Alex doesn’t have his third-round pick to take Allen 30th overall, having traded it to Stephen April. By the time Alex makes his third selection at 43rd overall, Allen will surely be gone.

But even with keepers skewing our league’s ADP slightly, Allen most likely would have been there 19th overall for Alex to draft, he could have had Olave in the 9th and either an RB or a WR in the 1st round, helping to make up for that missing third-round pick. Now he’s going to be well behind the 8-ball.

Keeper Grade: F

Keeper value: +49 vs CPR (#45)

Other notable keeper options:

            Isiah Pacheco, KC RB (+138; could be kept 190th overall, CPR #52)

            Joe Burrow, Cin QB (+24; could be kept 75th overall, CPR #51)

I don’t hate this pick, but I also don’t love it.

Eric is the first manager in AFL history to take advantage of the option to spend $50 of his FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) for the season to add a free agent before the draft. This amounts to 25% of his budget for the season.

Now, I will say that FantasyPros is a little more in favor of this move by Eric than I am. While their site also has Pacheco as a much bigger value, they also have Pacheco ranked 79th overall and Ridley 34th, which is a huge gap.

But I’m much more bullish on Pacheco, ranking him 52nd overall just a handful of spots behind Ridley at 45th, which would make Pacheco the only move in this situation and suggests that Eric wasted a quarter of his FAAB.

Now Ridley has a lot of upside; he could finish much higher than where I have him ranked. But I think Eric massively undervalued Pacheco, who he could have had in the 16th round.

Keeper Grade: B+

Keeper value: +13 vs CPR (#39)

Other notable keeper options:

            DJ Chark, Car WR (+47; could be kept 165th overall, CPR #118)

            Tyler Lockett, Sea RW (+21; could be kept 93rd overall, CPR #72)

For the fourth straight year, Andrew is keeping a 49er. He got really good value last year when he kept Samuel in the 7th round, but the fantasy community isn’t quite as high on him this year. FantasyPros ranks Deebo 39th overall, exactly where I have him ranked, 20 spots below where he was ranked entering 2022.

While Chark and Lockett both represented higher value over draft position, the only player on Drew’s roster from 2022 who was ranked higher overall than Samuel was Joe Mixon, but his keeper value would have been 12 points to the negative, so I think he made the right choice.

Keeper Grade: A-

Keeper value: -12 vs CPR (#20)

Other notable keeper options:

            Jakobi Meyers, LV WR (+45; could be kept 152nd overall, CPR #107)

            Romeo Doubs, GB WR (+35; could be kept 161st overall, CPR #126)

            Christian Kirk, Jac WR (+20; could be kept 89th overall, CPR #69)

While he didn’t appear as one of the other three highest values, I might have considered CeeDee Lamb in the 2nd round if I was Brandon.

I have Lamb ranked 13th while FantasyPros has him 12th overall, and Brandon could have had him as his 17th pick. There’s a chance Kelce would have been around for Brandon at 8th overall either way.

While he’s getting him at a pretty bad value compared to my ranking, it is worth noting that FantasyPros has Kelce ranked 6th overall and his ADP is currently 5th overall. From that standpoint, maybe Brandon is justified in this selection. After all, Kelce has appeared in 12 playoff games in league history, twice as many as any other offensive player, so he’s certainly been an extraordinarily valuable asset to the managers who draft or keep him.

Keeper Grade: B+