Written by Cory Puffett
Published November 7, 2023
Coming off our highest scoring week of the year, it was only right that we would nearly set a new season-low in Week 9. Our 12 managers combined for barely a point more than we did in our season opener. With just 1,190.29 points scored, this was the fifth lowest scoring week of the 109 regular season weeks since the start of the 2016 season.
A couple of our managers have had a particularly difficult stretch, though one at least has enjoyed some luck he can hang his hat on.
There were also a lot of points left on managers’ benches this week plus a pair of strong performances by players that spent some time on rosters this week. This includes the #1 performance at four of six positions! We’ll get into all those in the game-by-game breakdown.
We had yet another woeful coaching week. Despite our managers succeeding on 8 of their 13 coaching risks in Week 9, we lost a net 45.30 points, bringing us to a net of -81.69 points so far this season despite succeeding on 50.4% of our risks to this point.
All 12 of our managers are within four games of each other with four teams at 6-3, three at 3-6, and the other five straddling .500 and hoping to either get back to it or stay above that line in Week 10.
Historically, teams with a 6-3 record through Week 9 in the AFL make the playoffs at a 50% clip, but that number is inflated by our early years, which included our only Sabol Bowl champion to ever boast this record after Week 9: Danny Hatcher back in 2014. Since 2019, eight teams have started 6-3 (not including the four this year) and only three of those eight went on to make the playoffs.
Teams just a game above .500 at this juncture have been slightly less successful at making the playoffs with a 44.8% success rate, but 3 of our 10 Sabol Bowl winners have had this record at this point in their respective championship seasons. Cory Puffett was 5-4 after Week 9 during his run to the Sabol Bowl III title and each of our last two Sabol Bowl champions, Evan Ash in 2021 and William Battle in 2022, were 5-4 at this point in their seasons.
Playoff chances drop dramatically for the seven managers currently under .500 with 22.2% of 4-5 teams making the playoffs in AFL history and only 5.9% of teams making it after starting 3-6. In fact, the only 3-6 team to ever turn it around and make the playoffs was Anthony Battle, who finished the 2018 season 7-7 and ultimately lost Sabol Bowl VI to his brother. No team has ever won the Sabol Bowl after being under .500 entering Week 10.
Let’s jump into our game-by-game breakdowns. As always, we begin with the Week 9 Game of the Week.
All-time H2H: Alex leads series 3-1
A week ago, Alex was worried his Week 8 loss to Andrew was going to spark a long losing streak that would undo the 5-game winning streak he was coming off.
Though there is still certainly time for his season to unravel, he was able to get right back on the winning train with a huge victory in the Game of the Week to pull back into a tie for the best record in the league.
With the win, Alex secured his fifth career Peyton Manning Award and his second of the season following his Week 7 Game of the Week victory. Alex is now 5-8 in his career when playing for the Peyton Manning Award while Will falls to 8-11 in his attempts to secure the award.
Alex’s victory came despite some questionable decisions. Nobody will blame him for leaving the RB4 on his IR. Who saw Keaton Mitchell’s 21.37-point outing as a possibility this week?
But entering Sunday morning, Alex decided not to chance starting Miami’s defense with their negative projection. FleaFlicker suggested adding the Falcons defense but he decided to pick up the Chargers, so when he then decided to immediately drop them upon seeing he would have to make some other roster moves to pull them off the IR and into his lineup, he was charged a dual coaching risk. Both teams scored far more than the 49ers defense did considering they were on BYE, but the Chargers finished Monday night with 30.87 points, which would have made them the #1 defense of the week.
Not only did that mean Alex cost his team a league-high 30.87 points, earning him the Hue Jackson Award, it also meant he cost himself the opportunity to earn 18.61 coaching points since the Chargers outscored the Falcons by that much.
Instead, Alex claims the sixth Hue Jackson Award of his career and his third of the season. He is now tied with Stephen April and Anthony Battle for the 8th most Hue Jackson Awards in league history.
If it hadn’t been for that roster management by Alex, the Hue Jackson Award would have gone to his opponent. Nervous about his matchup with Houston, Will benched Rachaad White, who ended up as the RB1 of the week with 28.50 points. With Zack Moss scoring just 3.11 points as his replacement, Will cost his team 25.39 points.
While I don’t have our data organized in a way that would be easy to search for this, their 56.26 combined coaching points lost may well be an AFL record.
The good news for Alex is that he didn’t cost himself enough points to lose or to fall under triple digits. He’s scored at least 100 points in every week since Week 2 and his eight-game streak is the second longest in the AFL.
As far as luck goes, Alex has 1.1 more win than expected based on his season-long breakdown. When looking only at Top 6 performances, though, Alex is not considered lucky as his one lucky win is offset by an unlucky loss he suffered in Week 8.
Will, meanwhile, is one of our four unluckiest managers of the season. By breakdown he is 0.9 wins below expected, the second worst luck in the AFL, and by Top 6 performances he is 1 win below expected, the fourth worst luck in the league.
All-time H2H: Series tied 4-4
Despite losing two points on a manual stat correction thanks to Isaiah McKenzie’s punt return fumble lost for the Colts defense, Alex held on in a close battle against a team looking to steal his Tom Brady Award from him.
Instead, Alex earned his second Tom Brady Award of the season and passed Stephen for the seventh most all time with the ninth Tom Brady Award of his career.
Even after losing those two points for the punt return fumble, the Colts defense scored 27.84 points, which ranked 39th all-time among defenses and earned Alex his seventh career Chuck Noll Award as the defensive coach of the week.
Things got a little dicey for Alex through the Monday night game, but it could have been a more comfortable victory had he started Cade Otton at tight end. The second-year Buccaneer scored 20.40 points which would have made him the TE3 on the week.
In any case, Alex did earn one other award because his narrow victory came thanks to a successful coaching risk. He picked up Mac Jones for a spot start this past week, but FleaFlicker suggested Daniel Jones was the best waiver wire option. The young Patriots signal-caller outscored Danny Pennies by 10.46 points, roughly double Alex’s margin of victory.
Thanks to that coaching risk, Alex earned his sixth career Chuck Knox Award. It’s the third time this season he’s been crowned coach of the week.
One final note on Alex before we move on, after another solid performance by Cleveland Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins, he overtook Andrew Perez as the league’s leader in kicker scoring with 96.10 points from the position through nine weeks.
This will be a tough loss to swallow for Stephen because there was a lot to like about this game for him.
The Cleveland Browns defense scored 24.10 points, good for 96th on the all-time defensive leaderboard. It was a much-needed strong defensive game for Stephen, who even after that performance remains dead last in defensive scoring in the AFL with 58.25 points, more than 90 points behind the league’s leader.
Stephen was one of two managers with five Top 5 positional performers this week, one more than Alex had. He also extended his streak of 100-point games to nine, maintaining the longest active streak in the AFL.
While he does have one lucky win this season to help offset them a bit, all three of Stephen’s losses have come in weeks when he was a Top 6 scorer, making him one of three managers who are 2 wins below expected based on this metric. When looking at breakdown, though, he’s only 0.7 wins below expected; unlucky, but not egregiously so.
All-time H2H: Sean leads seried 8-6
Anthony was in dire need of a win, not only to keep his playoff hopes alive but to even keep his hopes of avoiding the Snyder bracket alive. He’d been struggling quite a bit lately and even this week missed out on some opportunities to win even bigger.
Two top five positional players went unused on Anthony’s bench in Week 9. Jake Ferguson was the TE5 with 19.25 points and Nick Folk was the K5 with 13.00 points.
Though there weren’t a lot of performances that will show up in the AFL’s historical records this week for Ant, he did boast two top positional scorers this week. Josh Jacobs was the highest scoring starting running back in the AFL with 23.58 points and, for the second straight week, CeeDee Lamb led all starting AFL wide receivers with 23.15 points.
Anthony maintained his lead in the race for the most defensive points of the season; he is now up to 151.15 points in nine weeks.
Sean, meanwhile, dropped Joshua Dobbs early in the week after repeatedly trying to drop him the previous two weeks only to be reminded he still had more time to serve on his IR. Dobbs wound up as the QB4 of the week despite not even being the starter in his game, finishing with 26.25 points and a come-from-behind win for the Vikings over Atlanta.
Sean does earn honorable mention for the Chuck Knox Award this week. Though his risks didn’t earn him a win as Alex Kincaid’s did, Sean earned a league-high 22.86 points from coaching in Week 9 on the strength of three successful coaching risks.
Sean added Will Levis off waivers this week instead of Daniel Jones and then started Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Minshew outperformed Jones by 9.08 points. Sean’s other 13.78 points came from a trade he made with Stephen just ahead of Thursday Night Football. Sean acquired Derrick Henry and Jaylen Waddle in exchange for Tony Pollard and Ja’Marr Chase, who had a higher combined projection than the two players he received. Henry outscored Pollard by 11.80 points and Waddle outscored Chase by 1.98 points.
Unfortunately for Sean, those coaching points were not enough to help him reach the century mark as his 100-point drought reached its fourth game, tied for the longest active streak in the AFL. It is the fourth time in Sean’s career he’s had a four-game streak without 100 points, the most in the AFL, but he is still two games shy of his career long.
All-time H2H: Eric leads series 10-5
Eric is the third manager to earn 10 wins against a single opponent in AFL history. Evan Ash has 11 wins against Anthony Battle and William Battle has 14 wins against Brandon.
After trading for 2024 draft capital, Eric’s team has picked up the pace significantly of late. This week’s strong performance came despite the QB1 of the week sitting on his TAXI squad. C.J. Stroud had a monster 42.42-point game go to waste.
Eric won’t sweat it too much. The real QB2 of the week, Dak Prescott, scored 28.43 points in his lineup, but that sort of gap certainly could have come into play. Fortunately for Eric it didn’t as he won his matchup by almost 55 points thanks to five Top 5 positional performers, tied with Stephen April for the most in the AFL this week.
Brandon’s poor week earned him his 16th career David Carr Award. He broke a tie with Evan for the most weeks as the AFL’s lowest scorer all-time. He was the only manager this week without a Top 5 positional player. He also fell below Eric for the fewest kicker points of the 2023 season with just 53.00 so far.
All-time H2H: Cory leads series 8-7
Cory took the lead in his all-time series with his Sportsballers co-host after winning their Week 9 matchup by a comfortable margin. He showed off some of his team’s depth this week as the #5 defense of the week, the Green Bay Packers, sat on his bench with 17.83 points but the #4 defense, the Las Vegas Raiders, contributed 23.32 points to his cause.
The only other noteworthy stat from this game comes from Evan’s bench, where Taysom Hill scored 19.67 points. The real TE4 of the week, it is the fourth time this season and the third week in a row that Evan has left a Top 5 tight end performance by Hill on his bench.
All-time H2H: William leads seried 8-5
In a low-scoring affair, William Battle could have cost his team a win by leaving Tank Dell’s 28.16 points on his bench. Dell joined C.J. Stroud for Eric Meyer, Rachaad White for Will Massimini, and the LA Chargers for Alex Mayo as a #1 positional performer who was either dropped or left on his team’s bench in Week 9.
Fortunately for William, while most of his lineup underperformed, he did have two other top positional performers for the week to help lift him to the victory against Andrew. Dalton Schultz had 22.85 points as the TE1 and Younghoe Koo had 19.90 points as the K1.
Schultz’s performance ties him for 82nd on the AFL’s all-time tight end leaderboard while Koo lands at #17 on the corresponding kicker list. Koo also earned William his eighth career Scott O’Brien Award as the kicker coach of the week.
Free Agent All-Stars vs Tom Brady Award Winner
Every week, I compare the best possible lineup made of players who are were available on waivers prior to Wednesday in the AFL to the top scoring team of the week in our league. Included percentages for the Free Agent All-Star players represent the percentage of FleaFlicker leagues in which each player was rostered as of Tuesday morning.
Final Score:
Free Agent All-Stars – 156.41
Alex Kincaid – 126.28
YTD Tom Brady Award Winner Record: 5-4
The Free Agent All-Stars ended a four-game losing streak to the Tom Brady Award winner.
Below is a rundown of standings, Week 9 game scores and positional leaders, plus updated power rankings:
Game of the Week: Alex Mayo vs Will Massimini
In a bizarre situation, Will earned more points from his starting quarterback, starting tight end, and starting defense than Alex did, but lost by more than 25 points as Alex took a commanding 2-game lead in the AFL Central. He will take a 3-0 division record through the final three weeks of interdivisional play before the divisional round robin we conclude our season with.
While Jalen Hurts put together a solid performance for Will, A.J. Brown had his first sub-125 yard receiving day since Week 2. A touchdown salvaged his performance. But it wasn’t nearly enough to overcome a 20-point Sunday night performance by Stefon Diggs paired with the Buffalo quarterback and a 2-touchdown game for Gus Edwards plus a 7/7 kicking day by his teammate Justin Tucker.
Stephen has topped the power rankings in each of the first nine weeks of the season and that run doesn’t look like it will end anytime soon considering the gap between him and Cory Puffett at #2.
This is Stephen’s 15th career #1 rankings, the fourth most in league history.
Roster Strength is broken down into two metrics: optimum points and roster wins, which is a team’s breakdown if every team started their perfect lineup every week. Cory ranks #1 in both metrics and Andrew Perez ranks #12 in both metrics, thus they get the umbrella term listed in their rows.
Alex Kincaid’s team hasn’t been particularly strong this season, but his wins have come at opportune times. Three of his four victories have come in the weeks he’s had divisional matchups, which will keep him in the playoff picture for at least a few more weeks. In fact, both Alexes are now unbeaten after playing their first matchup against each of their respective divisional opponents. Only Andrew is without a win in those games.
William Battle repeats as our #12 ranked manager. It’s the 20th time in his career he’s finished with this ranking, the second most in league history.