Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 19, 2023
Thanks to some meetings, catch-up work on grading, and some cross country drama, I don’t have time to write a long preamble this week.
We’ve had a crazy first six weeks with league-wide scoring very inconsistent from week to week. We’ve got a remarkable five teams at 4-2, another five at 2-4, and the remaining two right in the middle at 3-3. Nothing like this has happened before in our league.
Eric already seems to be selling. He traded Austin Ekeler to Stephen last week and then sent Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller his way this week. Despite being only two games out of a playoff spot with nine games to go, he doesn’t seem to feel like he has much hope this year. Hopefully he’s not managing himself into the Snyder.
Bye weeks are going to be a major factor in this week’s matchups with six NFL teams resting. Let’s get into it.
Alex leads all-time series 3-1
The battle for the Week 7 Peyton Manning Award is between two manager who each began the 2022 campaign 5-0 and are now tied at 4-2 in the middle of the 2023 season.
If I didn’t make these decisions on Tuesday, I probably would have looked elsewhere for a game of the week because this game projects to be a bloodbath. Still, I try to spread the wealth around as much as I can through the season and when two managers are facing off, both are above .500, and neither has played in a game of the week yet this season, I have to give them strong consideration.
Alex will have to keep an eye on his quarterbacks as Josh Allen (shoulder) and Deshaun Watson (shoulder, being Deshaun Watson) are both questionable for their 1pm games on Sunday. Other than them, he’s in great shape this week. Certainly he’d love it if De’Von Achane hadn’t gone on IR last week, but he’s in much better shape than Sean.
With Tony Pollard and Ja’Marr Chase, his highest ranked players at both positions so far this season, both on bye, Sean is going to need some of his depth pieces to step up in a big way this week. Davante Adams is questionable with a shoulder injury, one that has kept him on the injury report but has not kept him out of games for a majority of the season. His 2023 TAXI keeper, Drake London, appear set to make his AFL debut in Sean’s lineup, as well.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex has one coaching risk this week, which is his decision to start Ezekiel Elliott at RB. Since Elliott has the highest projection among RBs on his roster, this normally wouldn’t be a risk, but he picked up Salvon Ahmed off waivers this week when there’s another free agent player, Keaontay Ingram, who is available and has a higher projected score than any other RB on Alex’s roster.
Sean has Josh Reynolds in his wide receiver spot right now, but FleaFlicker suggests moving London to that spot and replacing Reynolds with Tyler Allgeier in the FLEX.
Cory leads all-time series 6-5
Brandon (4-2) is out here already conceding to Cory (3-3) in our league chat but he’s a very narrow underdog this week. Next year I’ll try to remember to start tracking our managers’ ATS records. Since I didn’t check the spreads for Week 1 this season, not much point in doing it now.
In any case, Brandon is in a bit of bye week hell with Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, Nico Collins, and the NY Jets defense all on bye. Still, with the Bucs facing the Falcons and Collins only representing a marginal improvement over even the worst of his starting receivers, all of which are inside of the top 26 at the position, the biggest issue for him will be plugging Antonio Gibson in at RB instead of whichever Panthers running back would be most suited for that spot.
Cory has a couple of injuries to track with Aaron Jones still working his way back from the hamstring injury that made him a game-time decision before last week’s bye and Dallas Goedert popping up on the report with a groin injury on Thursday.
The only bye week player Cory will be missing is Joe Burrow, a pretty significant loss, but he’s hoping Sam Howell can have a strong game against a putrid Giants defense. Just two weeks ago, Cory lost to Alex Kincaid who had Sam Howell’s 26.87-point outing against the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.
Current Coaching Risks
Brandon has Gibson set to start at RB, but if he’s healthy, Roschon Johnson (Q-concussion) should be in his lineup instead.
Cory added the Seahawks defense this week and appears to be starting them for their game against Arizona, but FleaFlicker suggests he should have added and started the Giants defense instead.
Stephen leads all-time series 4-2
What a line. Stephen (4-2) has suffered two unlucky losses these past two weeks, but if his line is to be trusted he should have no concern about that happening this week.
A small factor in the line is the fact that Andrew (2-4) has yet to address a glaring hole in his lineup for this week. Derrick Henry’s Titans are on bye but he still has him in a starting position.
To make matters more complicated for him, he only has two other running backs on his roster and one of them is currently on the IR. Jamaal Williams was designated to return this week, but that just opens his 21-day window for reinstatement to the active roster. He may or may not play this week.
Additional injuries for Andrew to keep an eye on include Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and DeVonta Smith (hamstring). He has Chris Godwin and Elijah Moore waiting in the wings should their services be required.
Stephen is a heavy favorite for those reasons and despite having some concerns of his own this week. He has his own bye week running back to replace, Joe Mixon, plus injuries to keep an eye on for Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring).
He doesn’t have a lot of great options behind them if they’re inactive. K.J. Osborn draws a tough matchup against San Francisco, Cole Kmet went right back to being a pumpkin after two strong weeks, and Diontae Johnson is in the same boat as Jamaal Williams where he could return this week, but there are no guarantees that he will or that he will be effective if he does.
Current Coaching Risks
Andrew still has Derrick Henry in his starting lineup but should start Jamaal Williams if he returns or Matt Breida if he doesn’t (or hit the waiver wire). Additionally, he has the Vikings defense in his lineup but should swap the Cleveland Browns in for them.
Stephen picked up Matt Gay this week to replace Ka’imi Fairbairn, who leads the league in field goals but is on bye. As we’ve seen for a few weeks now, FleaFlicker recommends Greg Joseph as the kicker to add. He’s not the only one this season or even this week as everybody in the AFL continues to pass on him.
All-time series tied 7-7
Though he’s not as heavy a favorite, Evan (4-2) appears set to keep pace with the top teams in the AFL. It certainly helps that of the four players on his roster on bye, they’ve combined to make just six starts through six weeks, and three of those starts were by the Cincinnati Bengals defense.
He will have to keep an eye on Tyler Lockett’s hamstring injury as we head through Sunday, but otherwise his team is pretty much intact for this week.
Eric (2-4), on the other hand, will be without Dak Prescott (last week’s QB1), Breece Hall (last week’s RB5), and Tee Higgins, who he acquired in a trade this week that sent away Jaylen Waddle, whose Miami Dolphins are notably not on bye this week.
Add to those absences injuries to DK Metcalf (ribs) and Sam LaPorta (calf) and this does not project to be a fun week for last week’s third highest scoring team.
Current Coaching Risks
Evan has no coaching risks based on his lineup and FleaFlicker projections as of Thursday afternoon.
Eric traded away Jaylen Waddle this week and received Javonte Williams, who is now starting in place of Waddle despite having a lower projection.
Anthony leads all-time series 9-5
Only two teams in AFL history have already won 10 games against another manager. William Battle has 14 wins against Brandon Saunders and Evan Ash has 11 wins against Anthony Battle.
Will (3-3) will attempt to avoid being the third manager to have lost that many games to one opponent. With Garrett Wilson on bye and James Conner on IR, his team will be slightly hampered this week, but the core of his roster is intact and has quite a few favorable matchups in Week 7.
Anthony (2-4) has several bye weeks to contend with, which will make it challenging to overcome the line on this matchup. CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys defense are of particular not on that front, though the Saints defense could prove a good start anyway if Trevor Lawrence is not available tonight.
Current Coaching Risks
Anthony is planning to start Kareem Hunt (Q-thigh) in a FLEX spot instead of Michael Thomas.
Will has three risks as it stands right now. He picked up Jason Myers instead of Greg Joseph to start at kicker and he cut the Atlanta Falcons defense, which currently has a slightly higher projection than the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Additionally, he has the first dual risk of the season, where he picked up Michael Mayer to start at tight end while benching Zach Ertz and passing up on free agent Gerald Everett, both of whom have higher projections. If he had just stuck with Ertz without adding a tight end, this would not have counted as a risk.
All-time series tied 2-2
After a horrible start to the season for William (2-4), his scheduling luck has turned and he enters this winnable matchup on a two game winning streak against Alex (2-4) who is riding a three-game losing streak during which he has failed to score 90 points even once.
It doesn’t get easier for Alex, who is missing one of the biggest revelations of the 2023 season so far, Adam Thielen, whose Panthers are on bye. DeAndre Hopkins is also on bye and he’ll be tracking ankle injuries to Saquon Barkley and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Willing will be without his Texans trifecta of Dameon Pierce, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. Additionally, David Montgomery is listed as questionable with a rib injury but should probably be listed as doubtful, as his FleaFlicker projection would agree with. Thankfully for him, the thumb injury for Justin Fields shouldn’t be a huge factor because he has Tua Tagovailoa ready to jump back into his lineup for his fourth start of the season.
Current Coaching Risks
William is planning to start Curtis Samuel at FLEX instead of Jayden Reed, who has a higher projection.
Alex has Jerome Ford slated to start at FLEX instead of Jonathan Taylor and, like Stephen and Will, he picked up a kicker other than Greg Joseph to start for him; in this case, it’s Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins.
Week 6 kicks off with the Saints and Jaguars tonight. Good luck to everyone this week!