Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 24, 2023
Our second week of division matchups is in the books. We all have one division rival left to see, and that will come in Week 9.
Stephen April and Alex Kincaid are both 2-0 in their games against AFL East opponents, so that Week 9 matchup will be a crucial one for both managers.
In the AFL Central, Alex Mayo is 2-0 against his division and is hoping he can avoid missing the playoffs for a third year in a row after winning at least five of his first seven games. This is also the third straight year Alex has had a winning streak of at least five games.
And in the AFL West, Brandon Saunders is holding things down with a 2-0 record against his rivals, including a win against Evan Ash that is currently giving him the tiebreaker with both managers sitting at 5-2 on the season.
Historically, teams above .500 at this juncture in the season do quite well. Teams that begin 5-2 make the playoffs in the AFL at a rate of 42.1% while teams that begin 4-3 are even more successful, making the playoffs 56.5% of the time.
Interestingly, no team has ever won the Sabol Bowl after beginning the season 5-2, but 4-3 starters boast the winners of Sabol Bowl II, Sabol Bowl III, and Sabol Bowl IX.
Only one team has ever started the year 3-4 and went on to win the Sabol Bowl, and that was William Battle just last season.
Meanwhile, for our four 2-5 managers, things look bleak. Out of 18 managers in AFL history to open the season at this mark, only one has ever made the postseason. Anthony Battle had a remarkable turnaround in 2016, winning six of his final seven games to finish the regular season 8-6 before falling to Andrew Perez by less than three points in their wild card playoff game.
Week 7 was another mediocre coaching week, though not nearly as bad as in Week 6. It’s surprising, then, that the AFL as a whole saw fewer points scored this week. The 1,222.34 points our 12 managers scored is now the 8th lowest scoring week of the 107 we’ve played since the start of the 2016 season, when we expanded startling lineups from 8 to 9 spots.
Coaching-wise, we took a collective four fewer risks than we did in Week 6 and went 5-of-11 with a net loss of 12.59 points. With 94 coaching risks on the season, we have exactly a 50% success rate with a -26.21 differential.
Week 8 represents the midpoint of our regular season, so I’m looking forward to previewing it later in the week. For now, let’s jump into our game-by-game breakdown of Week 7.
All-time H2H: Alex leads series 4-1
By the time we got to Thursday’s preview article, it seemed clear that this might not be an exciting game of the week. Somehow it wound up even less exciting than the 17.5-point line would have indicated.
Alex was a heavy favorite going in and was the easy victor. He didn’t have a lot of historically relevant performances on his team, but he did have consistency as one of three managers with four Top 5 positional performers.
Alex extended his winning streak to five games and his streak of 100-point games to six, the second longest active streak in the AFL. His strong week gave him his fourth career Peyton Manning Award. His last game in Week 5 of the 2022 season.
Now 4-8 all-time in game of the week appearances, Alex kept Sean at 9 wins in 20 appearances.
It certainly would not have made a difference in this matchup, but Sean did leave the QB4 on his bench as Gardner Minshew had a solid day with 24.26 points wasted.
Catch a few more notes about this game in the Game of the Week Recap just above this week’s power rankings.
All-time H2H: Alex leads series 3-2
For the eighth time in his career, Alex Kincaid is the Tom Brady Award winner. He last took home the award in Week 14 of the 2022 season and this week passed William Battle, Stephen April, and Danny Hatcher for the seventh most all-time.
Alex’s 63.87-point margin of victory makes this the biggest blowout of the season thus far. Like Alex Mayo, Alex Kincaid had four Top 5 positional performers this week, none more historically relevant than his kicker.
Ignoring FleaFlicker’s advice, Alex picked up Dustin Hopkins off waivers this week to start at kicker instead of Greg Joseph. It was a terrific decision.
Hopkins scored 24.00 points, a monster game for a kicker. In fact, it is the second highest single-game kicker score in AFL history, only trailing Tyler Bass’s 26.20-point outing in Week 11 last season.
Greg Joseph was the K6 in Week 7, and yet Hopkins outscored him by 12.60 points. While it was his only coaching risk of the week, those 12.60 coaching points he earned were a league high, giving Alex his fifth career Chuck Knox Award and his second of the season. Alex was the Hue Jackson Award winner last week, making this the 10th time in AFL history a manager has gone from the worst coach in one week to the best coach in the next.
Hopkins also earned Alex his ninth career Scott O’Brien Award as the kicker coach of the week. His ridiculous outing, which included four field goals, three of which were from beyond 50 yards, and three extra points helped elevate Alex to the #1 spot in the race for the Mark Moseley Award. He overtook Evan Ash this week and is up to 77.80 points from the position this year, meaning this Week 7 performance accounted for more than 30% of his kicker points this season!
It was a great week for Alex that came none too soon. He entered this week amid a three-game stretch without a 100-point game, just one shy of his career long.
Unfortunately, William didn’t have any noteworthy performers this week as Younghoe Koo was his only Top 5 positional player, not nearly enough to prevent his two-game winning streak from coming to an end.
All-time H2H: Series tied 6-6
This week’s lone unlucky loser, Cory has nobody to blame but himself. Sure, he finished among the top six in scoring and lost for the second time this season, but the adage “you make your own luck” certainly holds true as Brandon beat him in, by far, the closest matchup of the week.
It was going to be a difficult week for Cory to get a victory. Brandon had two top positional scorers this week. Lamar Jackson led all quarterbacks with 37.12 points, good for 53rd all-time at the position. Travis Kelce repeated as the top tight end of the week, this time scoring 30.75 points which puts him 17th all-time on the tight end leaderboard.
Even with those two sensational performances in the opposing lineup, Cory could have won this matchup. In fact, Cory’s 161.46 optimum points were the most in the league, five more than even the Tom Brady Award winner’s.
D’Onta Foreman and Jordan Addison were sitting on Cory’s bench this week alongside a strong performance from Joshua Palmer. Foreman and Addison were the RB1 and WR1 of the week, respectively, but their respective 34.53 and 28.45 points went to waste on Cory’s bench. Foreman’s score would have ranked 95th all-time on the AFL’s running back leaderboard.
Cory did have a handful of strong performance in his lineup to help him reach triple digits for the third week in a row. The best of them, at least from a positional standpoint, was the Seattle Seahawks defense which earned him a league-high 15.18 points even after a manual stat correction for a return fumble lost.
Seattle earned Cory his 14th career Chuck Noll Award as the defensive coach of the week, lifting him past Anthony Battle for the fourth most in AFL history.
Cory is now the unluckiest manager in the AFL this season by both breakdown (1.3 wins below expected) and vs league median (2 WBE).
All-time H2H: Evan leads series 8-7
In another blowout, Evan’s lineup featured multiple 20-point scorers while Eric had two starters combine for less than 2 points.
Evan didn’t even need the week’s TE5, Taysom Hill, or his 15.75 points to get this victory. It certainly helped his cause that Eric also left a top performer on his bench. Though Cory Puffett wound up with the Chuck Noll Award thanks to the Seahawks defense, the real top defense of the week was the Baltimore Ravens, but their 18.56 points were sat on Eric’s bench.
Though his outing wasn’t worthy of a spot on the AFL’s all-time running back leaderboard, Alvin Kamara’s 24.71 points in Evan’s lineup were the most among running backs in Week 7.
Thanks to his dreadful outing, which included leaving an injured and inactive DK Metcalf in his lineup, Eric came out of Week 7 with his 11th career David Carr Award, passing Anthony Battle and Will Massimini for the 6th most all-time. He continues to trail the rest of the league in kicker scoring with just 44.50 points from the position this year.
Luckily for Eric, that Metcalf start didn’t come back to haunt him from a coaching standpoint as FleaFlicker’s recommended sub, Rams running back Zach Evans, was on the field for only four snaps on Sunday, all on special teams.
All-time H2H: Anthony leads series 9-6
Despite leaving the week’s WR3, Josh Downs, and his 21.70 points on his TAXI squad, Will bounced back from an underwhelming Week 6 to climb back above .500 as we approach the season’s midpoint.
Like Alvin Kamara for Evan Ash, A.J. Brown won’t turn any heads on a historical level with his Week 7 performance, but his 23.90 points were enough to give Will the top wide receiver for the week.
Anthony did have one superstar performer on his team this week. Patrick Mahomes was the one who helped Travis Kelce record the 17th highest single-game tight end score in AFL history, and for that effort he earned 37.01 points which is 56th on the league’s quarterback leaderboard.
Unfortunately for Anthony, Mahomes didn’t have enough support from the rest of his lineup and his squad ultimately lost by nearly 20 points.
Will could have had a much easier victory, though. He earned his seventh career Hue Jackson Award this week, tying Cory Puffett and William Battle for the fourth most all-time. He cost his team a league-high 21.34 points by failing on all three of his coaching risks.
By picking up Jason Myers off waivers to start at kicker instead of Greg Joseph, Will cost his team a miniscule 1.60 points, but he also cost his squad 9.44 points by dropping the Falcons defense who were projected to score more than the Steelers who he ended up starting, and another 10.30 points by adding and starting Michael Mayer at tight end instead of Gerald Everett.
A solid if unexceptional performance by the Saints defense against Jacksonville on Thursday night helped Anthony maintain his lead in the race for the Buddy Ryan Award. He is up to 113.85 points from his defenses this season, well ahead of Alex Kincaid’s 87.38 points in second.
All-time H2H: Stephen leads series 5-2
For the first time this season, Stephen fell outside of the top six scorers for the week, but he still managed to get the victory, this lucky win offsetting one of the two unlucky losses he’s suffered in recent weeks.
Stephen joined both Alexes by having four Top 5 positional players. That might be surprising considering his modest team score, but keep in mind that he started the Detroit Lions defense, which got toasted by Lamar Jackson and cost Stephen 10.54 points, making this the fourth worst single-game performance ever by any AFL starter.
Here is the list of the five worst performances in AFL history, all by defenses:
Denver Broncos defense: -11.62 for Sean Kennedy in the 2022 wild card playoff
Oakland Raiders defense: -10.80 for Danny Hatcher in Week 9 of the 2013 season
Carolina Panthers defense: -10.60 for William Battle in Week 4 of the 2014 season
Detroit Lions defense: -10.54 for Stephen April in Week 7 of the 2023 season
Carolina Panthers defense: -9.20 for William Battle in Week 3 of the 2014 season
Thanks to the Lions, Stephen’s 100-point streak came down to Monday Night Football and Christian McCaffrey, who was questionable entering the weekend. McCaffrey did play and found the end zone twice to help Stephen extend his triple digit streak to six games, still the longest active run in the league.
Also thanks to the Lions, Stephen is now down to 27.03 points from the position this season, less than half the total of the next worst defensive coach in the AFL this year.
Free Agent All-Stars vs Tom Brady Award Winner
Every week, I compare the best possible lineup made of players who are were available on waivers prior to Wednesday in the AFL to the top scoring team of the week in our league. Included percentages for the Free Agent All-Star players represent the percentage of FleaFlicker leagues in which each player was rostered as of Tuesday morning.
Final Score:
Free Agent All-Stars – 123.44
Alex Kincaid – 140.97
YTD Tom Brady Award Winner Record: 4-3
It’s the third week in a row the Tom Brady Award winner would win this matchup.
Below is a rundown of standings, scores, and positional leaders, plus this week's power rankings:
Game of the Week: Sean Kennedy vs Alex Mayo
In a game that was far less interesting as we would have liked a marquee matchup to be, Alex entered Thursday a 17.5-point favorite and wound up winning by more than 40 points despite the 49ers defense costing him points!
Only three players finished with double digits for Sean, none of them topping 15 points. In fact, Brock Purdy’s touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey on Monday night was the only touchdown any of Sean’s starters accounted for in this matchup. Meanwhile, Evan Engram was the only offensive starter for Alex who did not find the end zone. Even Josh Allen added a rushing score to his two-touchdown day through the air, helping Alex to his fifth straight victory.
Stephen has fallen below 90 for the first time all season but still holds a comfortable lead over the field in this week’s power rankings. With his seventh straight week leading the field to begin the year, he has captured his 13th career #1 ranking, tying Evan Ash for the fourth most in AFL history.
Alex Kincaid might want to consider joining Evan and Eric on one of their road trips after the roller coaster these past few weeks have been. He went from a power score of 50.0 after Week 4 to 32.3 after Week 5 before plummeting to 11.4 last week and now climbing all the way back to 41.0 this week. His corresponding rankings have gone 5-9-11-7 in those four weeks.
Eric seems to have gotten comfortable down there in the cellar, where he’s been since Week 3. This is his 11th career #12 ranking, which ties Adam Perez for the sixth most all-time. To be fair, this is Eric’s 11th year in the AFL while Adam played in just four seasons, so it’s not inherently something to be ashamed of. Still, we have four other managers who have been active in all 11 AFL seasons who are nowhere close to that mark.
Come back Thursday, when I will hopefully have my preview of Week 8, which strangely will have no bye weeks but is sandwiched between two weeks that each feature six teams on bye. What are we doing, NFL?