Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 12, 2023
We enter the middle third of our regular season this week and the playoff picture could gain a significant amount of clarity this week.
Teams that remain at or below .500 after Week 6 are at a severe disadvantage in the playoff race. Less than a third of teams that have started 3-3 have made the playoffs in league history, and if you fall to 2-4 that probability drops to just .154 with only 4 of 26 teams coming back from that deficit.
Remarkably, two of those four teams accomplished the feat in 2016 when we had three 2-4 teams and seven teams ahead of them in the standings at this juncture in the season. But since moving to a 15-game regular season, we have not yet had a team start the year under .500 through six games make it into the playoff.
With only the Packers and Steelers on bye this week, our teams will be at nearly full strength minus injuries this week, and there are a lot of fantasy-relevant injuries that we’ll discuss in each game.
Coaching risks listed below are based on lineups and FleaFlicker projections at the time I was able to check them on Thursday. This week that was at about noon. As always, I’ll be double checking those projections and updating risks as we get into each window of games.
For those who are wondering how I handle projections changing between Thursday and Sunday, or even in the leadup to Sunday and Monday night games, I look at whether a player’s projection should have had them in the lineup when their game kicked off and locked them into place. So if a Thursday player was supposed to be in the lineup when their game kicked off, but then by Sunday another player has a higher projection, it’s not considered a risk if the Thursday player was in the lineup, but I also won’t count it as a risk if the other player starts and it would hurt the manager’s coaching score.
Likewise, sometimes a player in a later window has a high projection but is listed as questionable. If a manager decides they don’t want to risk that player being inactive and goes with somebody else, I will only count it as a coaching risk if (a) the player who starts in the place of the one with an injury designation does not have the highest projection of bench players available to put in the lineup or (b) the decision benefits the manager’s team.
And, of course, I always take into consideration who we are adding off the waiver wire. If there’s a player available with a higher projection than the one you added and started, that will be counted as a coaching risk.
It’s a lot for me to keep track of but I’ve found that it’s a pretty fair way to assess our coaching success and this is the method I’ve used to track coaching risks for the past three years now.
Let’s get into our game-by-game previews!
Brandon leads all-time series 8-4
In each of the past two weeks, the victor of the game of the week also took home the Tom Brady Award as the highest scorer in the league. In Week 5, Will (3-2) became the 34th manager to accomplish this in league history. In Week 4 it was Brandon (3-2) who did it.
Now they face off in Week 6. There are 12 head-to-head matchups in league history where one manager has at least nine wins against the other and Brandon would love to add to that list.
The spread entering this game certainly isn’t insurmountable, but Will is coming off a huge week while Brandon’s team seemed to take a week off after winning the Tom Brady Award, finishing under 100 points for the first time in 2023. He’ll hope for a repeat of that performance from Will’s squad this week.
Injury-wise, Will is in excellent shape while Brandon has a couple of big names to manager. The biggest is certainly Travis Kelce, who is questionable with an ankle injury heading into Kansas City’s Thursday night game against a Broncos defense he would figure to go nuclear against.
If Kelce isn’t active, Brandon will have to do some serious roster management to create a bench spot for him and pick up a tight end off waivers. FleaFlicker would recommend either Dawson Knox (questionable with a wrist injury) or Tyler Conklin.
In addition, Miles Sanders and Khalil Herbert are both dealing with injuries, though neither would likely factor into Brandon’s lineup even if they were healthy.
Current Coaching Risks
Will has Christian Kirk slotted into one of his two FLEX spots, but FleaFlicker suggests Zack Moss would be a better start coming off a monster Week 5 performance.
Brandon has no coaching risks based on his lineup and FleaFlicker projections as of Thursday morning.
Stephen leads all-time series 6-4
Evan (3-2) will likely be trying to avoid the fate of all those other 3-3 teams who have failed to come back to earn a playoff berth in our league’s history. He’s a significant underdog against a strong team that may have gotten even stronger this week.
Stephen (4-1) sent C.J. Stroud and a 2024 4th round pick to Eric Meyer in exchange for Austin Ekeler and a 2024 6th round pick. For those unfamiliar with our league who think this is an unbalanced trade, it might still be but Eric is ready to start improving his draft stock for next season and Stroud is currently eligible as either a taxi keeper or a standard keeper and would be valued in the 16th round either way as long as he remains on Eric’s roster.
Back to the game at hand, one concern for Stephen is all the injuries his team is racking up. Current injuries to players in his starting lineup include a finger injury for Justin Herbert, though it’s his non-throwing hand and shouldn’t impact him much, an ankle injury to Austin Ekeler, and a hamstring injury for Cole Kmet.
Tee Higgins (ribs) and Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) have also spent time in his starting lineup and are questionable for this weekend. That could give Evan just a bit of hope. But it certainly doesn’t help Evan’s chances that Justin Jefferson was placed on the short term IR in Minnesota.
Current Coaching Risks
Stephen has no coaching risks based on his lineup and FleaFlicker projections as of Thursday morning.
Evan has Robert Woods set for another start at wide receiver, but Brandin Cooks has a higher projection, possibly due to Woods’ rib injury. We’ll see if that projection hold into the weekend.
All-time series tied 2-2
The fifth edition of the Battle of the Alexes is this week and Alex Mayo (3-2) is heavy favorite against Alex Kincaid (2-3).
Both teams will be at nearly full strength this week. Saquon Barkley is questionable with an ankle injury but has logged limited practices this week for Kincaid while Mike Evans (hamstring) still has not returned to practice and could wind up as a game-time decision for Mayo.
The good news for Kincaid is that if Barkley can’t play this weekend, Cleveland is seriously downplaying Jerome Ford’s knee injury, so the expectation seems to be that he will be a full go on Sunday.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex K has Jonathan Taylor set to start at running back, but if Saquon Barkley (ankle) is active FleaFlicker says he should be in the lineup. Additionally, Jerome Ford is dealing with a knee injury, but if he plays FleaFlicker believes Alex should move DeAndre Hopkins to WR and start Ford in place of Jerry Jeudy.
Alex M is once again planning to start two tight ends, but FleaFlicker believes he should replace Tyler Higbee with Ezekiel Elliott in the FLEX.
All-time series tied 7-7
William (1-4) was a 7.5-point underdog last week and managed to get his first win of the season. Now he’s favored to get his second win of the year.
Sean (4-1) will be tracking Davante Adams’ shoulder injury, which seemed to limit him Monday night as he garnered only four targets.
Meanwhile, the injuries to William’s team shouldn’t be a huge factor as only Tank Dell and David Njoku are on the report, and both would likely sit behind Terry McLaurin and Dalton Schultz even if they were healthy.
Current Coaching Risks
Sean dropped Daniel Jones (questionable with a neck injury) this week but projections say he should start over Brock Purdy. He is also currently going against projections by starting Josh Reynolds at FLEX over Tyler Allgeier.
William is started Justin Fields this week instead of Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has had the higher projection each of the past two weeks, and William has started him only to see Fields outscore him. He’s hoping this will be a successful risk as it would have been in Weeks 4 and 5.
Anthony leads all-time series 7-5
The two DeMatha cross country coaches face off this week in what should be a fairly balanced matchup. Though Cory (2-3) is the favorite, he’s done terrible in even numbered weeks, finishing as the lowest scorer in both Week 2 and Week 4.
Cory will be without Aaron Jones this week as the Packers are on bye. Likewise, Anthony (2-3) will make due without Christian Watson.
Outside of pre-existing injuries, the only player Cory has to track heading into Sunday is Jordan Addison, who was a limited participant in Thursday practice with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, he’ll have a tough decision to make between Joshua Palmer, D’Onta Foreman, or Emari Demarcado, the latter two of whom he picked up off waivers this week.
Current Coaching Risks
Cory picked up the Las Vegas Raiders defense off waivers earlier this week, but the Minnesota Vikings have the highest projection among available defenses.
Anthony has two risks based on his current lineup, though one will likely go away by the weekend. He currently has Jake Ferguson starting over Kyle Pitts at tight end and Jake Elliott starting over Nick Folk at kicker.
Eric leads all-time series 8-4
I don’t know if I’ve ever marked a game as a pick’em before, but I am for this game between the worst two teams in the AFL in 2022 who are in danger of making another Snyder bracket appearance in 2023.
Andrew (2-3) is virtually at full-strength, which is good news for him in this game. Eric (1-4) finished as the #11 scorer in the league in three straight weeks before climbing up to #7 in Week 5. He traded away Austin Ekeler this week (discussed above in the preview for the matchup between Evan and Stephen) and he has several questionable players heading into the first game of the week. DK Metcalf (rib), Marquise Brown (illness) and Darren Waller (groin) are questionable for the 1pm, 4pm, and SNF windows, respectively.
Current Coaching Risks
Eric is deciding what to do regarding his taxi squad, but FleaFlicker suggests he activate Sam LaPorta and start him over Darren Waller, who is questionable with a groin injury. He also has Chris Olave (questionable with a toe injury) in his lineup but should have been starting Austin Ekeler (questionable with an ankle injury), who he traded away but says he is “99 percent” sure he will play.
Andrew is currently starting Gabe Davis at FLEX instead of Chris Godwin, who has a higher projections.
Week 6 kicks off tonight from Arrowhead as the Kansas City Chiefs figure to put a hurting on the Denver Broncos. Good luck to everyone this week!