Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 10, 2023
It always surprises me how quickly the fantasy football season progresses; we’re already a third of the way through our regular season schedule!
For the first time since 2014, none of our teams are undefeated or winless through five games. Stephen April and Sean Kennedy lead the pack at 4-1 and are sitting pretty right now. Through our league’s first 10 seasons, teams with four wins in the first five weeks make the playoffs at a 55% clip. Four of the 20 teams to sit at that record have ultimately won the Sabol Bowl.
The difference between 4-1 and 3-2 is huge when it comes to lifting the title belt, dropping from a 20% chance to just 5.4% despite less than a 15% difference in playoff probability.
Meanwhile, when you look at the difference between teams one game above .500 versus those one game below, the playoff probability drops starkly from 40.5% down to 18.4% while the chances of winning the Sabol Bowl are virtually identical. In 10 seasons, 2 of 37 teams to start 3-2 have won the Sabol Bowl while 2 of 38 teams to start 2-3 have won it.
Interestingly, our one manager who won this week to avoid a winless record through five weeks may have been better off taking the loss. In 10 seasons, 23 teams have begun the season 1-4 and not one of them made the playoffs, but of the 6 teams who have started 0-5, one of them did. Anthony Battle began the 2018 season 0-5 but won 7 of his last 9 games and beat out Cory Puffett for their division title thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record.
Our managers did a fantastic job of coaching this week. I almost feel bad even having to give a Hue Jackson Award this week. Overall, our managers were successful on 9 of 14 risks and earned their teams a net 53.30 points. The league’s success rate through five weeks is now .559 and we have a differential of +80.20 coaching points.
That strong coaching week helped us score a total of 1,358.11 points, just a couple more than we did last week. Week 5 ranks 43rd among 145 regular season weeks in AFL history.
Another factor in the high scoring this week was a pair of historic wide receiver outings. We’ll get into them in more detail in the game-by-game recap, but we had two receivers enter the Top 3 on the AFL’s all-time leaderboard. They’re sandwiched between Tyreek Hill’s 51.4-point game for Anthony Battle in Week 12 of the 2020 season and Tyler Lockett’s 45.5-point outing in Week 7 of the same season for Anthony’s brother William.
Remarkably, this is the second time in AFL history two wide receivers have scored at least 40 points in the same week. Back in Week 13 of the our inaugural 2013 campaign, Josh Gordon scored 42.1 points for Mike Washington while Alshon Jeffery scored 41.8 points in Evan Ash’s starting lineup.
For the second time this season, half of our league’s managers were represented among the six positional scoring leaders. Read more about them and all the other news from Week 5 below as we dive into our game-by-game recap of the week!
All-time H2H: Series tied 7-7
Half of that crazy wide receiver week referenced in the intro belonged to Will. DJ Moore went bananas against Washington’s defense on Thursday night and scored 45.90 points. He briefly took the #2 spot on the all-time wide receiver leaderboard before being dropped to #3 on Sunday.
His performance helped Will to a point total that now sits 58th on the AFL’s all-time list for single-game team scoring. He now has the two highest single-game scores of the season with this week’s performance joining his Week 2, 158.75-point outing.
It could have been even better for Will, though. After the news that the Colts and Jonathan Taylor had agreed to a significant three-year extension and that Taylor would be active for Sunday’s game, Will removed Zack Moss from his starting lineup.
The supposed backup had a career day, scoring 35.24 points on Will’s bench. That point total would have put him 79th on the AFL’s all-time running back leaderboard.
It didn’t matter. Between DJ Moore’s monstrous outing and a 30.50-point effort that made Jalen Hurts the top scoring quarterback of the week, Will was able to win the game of the week and lead the AFL in scoring.
It is the 34th time in league history both the Tom Brady Award and the Peyton Manning Award were claimed by the same manager. It is also the second week in a row this has happened and as fate would have it, Will is going to face the manager who did it in Week 4 in a Week 6 showdown.
This is Will’s 13th career Tom Brady Award, and we’re just three weeks removed from him claiming his 12th. He passed Cory Puffett and Sean Kennedy for the fourth most Brady Award all-time.
As for the Peyton Manning Award, this was the 8th time Will has won it. His last came in Week 14 of last season and he is now 8-9 in game of the week appearances. Evan falls to 16-15 in his opportunities.
Despite his loss, it wasn’t all bad for Evan. He did have the top scoring defense of the week. The Cincinnati Bengals took care of business in Arizona, forcing three turnovers and an additional three fourth down stops and even recorded a defensive touchdown.
Cincy’s 27.39 points rank 39th all-time among starting defenses and earned Evan his 12th career Chuck Noll Award. He is now one behind Anthony Battle and Cory Puffett for a share of the third most defensive coach of the week awards in AFL history.
All-time H2H: Series tied 3-3
Cory can only seem to finish in one of two places on the week’s leaderboard. He’s finished 2nd in scoring in each of the three odd-numbered weeks this season. Unfortunately for his Week 6 outlook, he’s finished dead last in scoring each of the two even-numbered weeks.
This was an odd-numbered week, though, so we can focus on the good for Cory this time around, starting with the week’s top running back. Travis Etienne had no complains about the surface of the field in London on Sunday morning. He had more than 180 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, contributing 37.73 points to claim 47th on the all-time running back leaderboard.
And it didn’t stop with Etienne. Dallas Goedert came out of hibernation this week to the tune of 22.05 points. While he didn’t remain the week’s highest scorer at the position after Sunday night, his total does rank 96th on the tight end leaderboard.
Here’s a bit of a shocking stat: those were Cory’s only Top 5 positional performers in Week 5, but Alex actually had three. Not only was that more than Cory had, it was as many as Will had in his Tom Brady Award-winning effort.
Why is that shocking? Because Alex is this week’s David Carr Award winner. He last took this award in Week 11 of the 2022 season and it is the 5th time in his career he’s been the week’s lowest scorer.
Alex has gone two straight games without scoring 100 points which is now the league’s longest active streak. He is one of two managers this season who has neither suffered an unlucky loss or claimed a lucky win.
Despite only getting 2 points from Tyler Bass on Sunday morning, Cory remains the leader in the AFL’s race for the Mark Moseley Award. He’s earned 54.20 points from the kicker position this season.
All-time H2H: Sean leads series 6-5
The other half of this historic week for wide receivers came in this game as Ja’Marr Chase exploded, garnering 19 targets and turning them into 15 catches for nearly 200 yards and three touchdowns. His 47.90 points passed DJ Moore’s Thursday night outing for the #2 score at the position in AFL history and the 12th highest score at any position.
Sean is, by a narrow margin, the luckiest manager in the AFL this season, but luck had nothing to do with it this week. He earned his 13th career Chuck Knox Award as the AFL’s coach of the week, tying William Battle and Evan Ash for the most in league history.
He earned a league-high 23.43 points and a win from his coaching decisions. While he cost his team 5.16 points by starting Michael Wilson over Tyler Allgeier in one of his FLEX spots, he earned 19.74 points by starting Brock Purdy over Daniel Jones and another 8.85 points for adding Logan Thomas instead of Zach Ertz for a spot-start at tight end.
Eric joins Alex Kincaid as the other manager without either a lucky win or an unlucky loss this season. Part of his trouble is the kicker position. He’s only earned 24.70 points from his kickers this season, less than half of Cory’s total.
The good news for Eric is that he scored 100 points this week, snapping a drought that came just one game shy of tying the longest drought of his career.
It would not have made the difference this week, but Eric did leave the TE3 on his taxi squad as Sam LaPorta scored two touchdowns but his 18.95 points went to waste. Thanks to a trade completed before this writeup was published, Eric very well may be activating Sam LaPorta in the coming days. He’s twice been a Top 5 tight end while sitting on Eric’s taxi squad this season.
All-time H2H: Series tied 3-3
Stephen’s team is very strong, but it certainly hasn’t been infallible as it’s fallen outside the top three scorers three times in the first five weeks. That’s the zone where unlucky losses become entirely possible.
This week, though, he prevented catastrophe by ignoring FleaFlicker’s projections and making his own decisions to earn an honorable mention for the Chuck Knox Award. He earned 20.29 points and his win by succeeding on both of his coaching risks.
He earned 12.99 points by starting Jared Goff and leaving C.J. Stroud on his taxi squad, which was a pretty important factor in today’s trade between him and Eric. Read more about that in the Week 6 preview on Thursday. The other 7.30 points came from his decision to add Ka’imi Fairbairn for a spot-start at kicker instead of Greg Joseph.
Fairbairn ended up earning Stephen the Scott O’Brien Award thanks to his 16.30 points, which ties the 75th highest single-game score at the position in league history. It is Stephen’s 6th career O’Brien Award as the kicker coach of the week.
Thanks to a disappointing week for Brandon Saunders, Stephen takes over as the league’s active leader in consecutive 100-point games and is the only manager with at least 100 points in all five games this season. William Battle, Will Massimini, and Alex Mayo each trail Stephen by one game with streaks dating back to Week 2.
As a Top 6 scorer in Week 5, Anthony’s loss is of the unlucky variety and he joins his brother along with Cory Puffett, Will, and Stephen at one win below expected on the year.
Despite the loss, Anthony retains the lead in defensive scoring this season thanks to a terrific outing from the New Orleans Saints defense. Anthony has 104.88 points from his defenses this season. He’s on a torrential pace. The single-season record for defensive points by a manager was Anthony’s 264.30 points in the 2019 season, which was a 14-game season. That was on pace for 283.18 points in a 15-game season but he’s currently on pace for 314.64 points!
All-time H2H: Alex leads series 4-2
Still the newest manager in his fourth season in the AFL, Alex earned his 25th career victory this week. Now all 12 active managers have reached that mark. It took him 49 weeks to reach the milestone, tying him with Andrew Perez for the fifth fastest among our active managers.
Though he didn’t have any positional leaders, Alex benefited from four Top 5 performers this week. Josh Allen (29.67 points) was the QB2, De’Von Achane (23.08 points) was the RB3, Stefon Diggs (19.45 points) was the WR5, and the San Francisco 49ers (19.90 points) were the #4 defense in Week 5. No other team had as many Top 5 performers this week.
That enabled him to overcome a 3-touchdown performance from George Kittle on Sunday night. Andrew’s tight end scored 26.95 points, good for the 34th highest single-game total for a tight end in league history.
Andrew continues to struggle to get meaningful points from his defenses. Thanks to a return fumble by the Patriots, this was the second time in five weeks that Andrew’s starting defense has cost him points. Meanwhile the defense he had started the previous two weeks and which he stashed on his IR this past week scored more than 8 points. It wouldn’t have been enough to get him the win, but it would have extended his 100-point streak to four games. Still, his three-game streak was the longest he’d enjoyed since late in the 2021 season.
Alex was one of two managers this week who cost their teams points with coaching decisions. Neither was particularly egregious, but it was still enough to award a Hue Jackson Award for Week 5.
Alex’s decision to start Tyler Higbee in one of his FLEX spots instead of Gus Edwards cost his team a league-high 2.81 points and earned him his 5th career Hue Jackson Award. It is his second of the season, with the first coming back in Week 1. He now has as many Hue Jackson Awards in 3.33 seasons as Alex Kincaid (4.33 seasons), Danny Hatcher (7 seasons), and Eric Meyer (10.33 seasons).
All-time H2H: William leads series 14-6
In the 20th installment of the most-contested matchup in AFL history, William followed Will Massimini’s lead by getting revenge against a team that bested him in the season opener.
The final score was about 10 points closer than it should have been. Brandon left the week’s WR4 on his bench as George Pickens scored 25.43 points, but William left the top quarterback of the week on his own bench. Justin Fields had one of the best games of his career on Thursday night and scored 35.00 points on William’s bench. It would have been good enough for 92nd on the AFL’s all-time quarterback list.
Brandon fell below 100 points for the first time this season while William earned a lucky win, which offsets one of the two unlucky losses he took earlier this season. He remains the unluckiest manager in the AFL this season.
Free Agent All-Stars vs Tom Brady Award Winner
Every week, I compare the best possible lineup made of players who are were available on waivers prior to Wednesday in the AFL to the top scoring team of the week in our league. Included percentages for the Free Agent All-Star players represent the percentage of FleaFlicker leagues in which each player was rostered as of Tuesday morning.
Final Score:
Free Agent All-Stars – 126.90
Will Massimini – 154.08
YTD Tom Brady Award Winner Record: 2-3
This is the first time in 2023 that the Free Agent All-Stars would have lost to multiple AFL teams. Cory and Sean both would have beaten them. It is the second time this season Sean’s team would have accomplished this feat.
Below is a rundown of standings, scores, and positional leaders, plus this week's power rankings:
Game of the Week: Will Massimini vs Evan Ash
Will’s squad got off to a quick start on Thursday night with DJ Moore’s monster day. His 230 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns gave him a 40-point lead before the main slate of games even began and it only got worse for Evan as Will ultimately won by 55 points. Though Cincinnati’s defense did everything in its power to assist Evan, Pittsburgh’s defense effectively neutralized their score and Jalen Hurts added 30 points of his own to ensure an easy victory for Will.
Stephen April has a strong hold on the top spot in the league. He now has 11 #1 rankings in his career, passing Sean Kennedy for sole position of the fifth most in league history. He is now two behind Evan Ash’s mark.
Eric, meanwhile, has been at the bottom for three weeks running. It’s the first time in Eric’s career his stay at #12 has lasted beyond two consecutive weeks. If he repeats again in Week 6, or falls back to this spot at any other point this season, he will become the seventh manager in AFL history with 10 career appearances at the bottom of our power rankings.
Come back Thursday for my preview of Week 6 as we enter the middle third of our regular season!