Written by Cory Puffett
Published September 21, 2023
Every division in the AFL enters Week 3 with a 2-0 team, two 1-1 teams, and an 0-2 team.
Historically, AFL managers who start the season 2-0 have a 53.1% chance of making the playoffs. A team that starts 3-0 sees that playoff chance jump all the way up to 78.9% and this week none of our 2-0 teams face each other.
Meanwhile, for our winless teams, managers make the playoffs in the AFL at a rate of 18.8% when they start 0-2 and that drops to 16.7% after a third consecutive loss to begin the season.
The last time the AFL had three undefeated teams after Week 3 was in 2018. Two of them made the playoffs that season. The other two playoff teams in 2018 began 2-1 and 0-3, respectively. That was the last time an 0-3 start resulted in a playoff appearance.
All coaching risks below are based on lineups and projections as of approximately 8:30am Thursday. They are always re-assessed shortly before each kickoff window of the week.
Alex leads all-time series 3-2
After Alex (1-1) won the first three games of their head-to-head series, Andrew (1-1) has emerged victorious from their two most recent meetings and will look to knot up their series this week.
He’s a heavy favorite, and I try to avoid designating games with just lopsided projections as the Game of the Week. But Andrew and Alex are both coming off Top 3 scoring performances in Week 2, with less than a point separating the two, and they are tied for second place in a division headed by Stephen April. This game could have heavy implications later in the season in the race for the wild card.
A significant contributor to this 15-point spread is Saquon Barkley’s ankle injury. This is a huge loss for Alex.
Andrew has to keep an eye on Derrick Henry who is questionable with a toe injury, but he’s at least been practicing in a limited capacity this week, so we can expect to see him in Cleveland on Sunday.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex has Adam Thielen (proj. 7.28) slotted into one of his wide receiver spots coming off a strong Week 2 performance, but FleaFlicker suggests he swap Thielen out for DeAndre Hopkins (proj. 8.64). He also elected to cut the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense (proj. 1.36) and start the Atlanta Falcons (proj. 0.35) this week.
Andrew has no coaching risks based on his lineup and FleaFlicker projections as of Thursday morning.
Evan leads all-time series 6-5
In another matchup that could see its all-time series tied at the end of the week, this was seriously considered as an option for the Game of the Week.
Evan (2-0) leads the AFL West with our defending runner-up just behind him. He is third in scoring while Brandon (1-1) is seventh despite less than 5 total points separating the two on the season.
This is the only matchup of the week between two teams who are both projected to score 100 points or more.
The two most relevant injuries to watch in this matchup are both to players on Brandon’s roster. Miles Sanders is nursing a pectoral injury while Brandon Aiyuk is on the injury report with a hurt shoulder. Both players are questionable.
Current Coaching Risks
Brandon is streaming the kicker position this week. He picked up the Cowboys rookie Brandon Aubrey (proj. 9.62) instead of Greg Joseph (proj. 11.85) to start against Evan this week. He also currently has Michael Pittman (proj. 9.37) in his lineup. That risk could go away if Miles Sanders (proj. 12.44) doesn’t play.
Evan has no coaching risks based on his lineup and FleaFlicker projections as of Thursday morning.
Sean leads all-time series 8-5
It’s taken a little bit of luck for Sean (2-0) to start the year undefeated. He was fifth in scoring in Week 1 and tenth in Week 2. He doesn’t expect to need much luck to pull off a win this week as he has the second highest projected score in the AFL.
He is facing the reining Tom Brady Award winner. Will (1-1) blew the rest of the league away in scoring with a nearly 25-point advantage over our second highest scorer in Week 2. This week doesn’t project to be as strong for him, though.
Injuries won’t play a factor in either manager’s lineup this week, so the good news is they get to face off at full strength. Sean will be deciding today whether to take a coaching risk and start Daniel Jones against the 49ers defense or go with his opponent’s starting signal caller, Brock Purdy.
Current Coaching Risks
Sean has Tyler Allgeier (proj. 9.43) slated to start in one of his two FLEX spots, but FleaFlicker prefers AJ Dillon (proj. 10.03). That could change if Aaron Jones is active Sunday afternoon.
Will is looking to start Christian Kirk (proj. 8.93) over Garrett Wilson (proj. 9.98). It would be the second straight week he takes a risk by sitting Wilson. Last week it resulted in a loss of 2 coaching points.
Stephen leads all-time series 5-1
With the highest projected score of the week at 110.80 points, Stephen’s team (2-0) looks like a wagon. Assuming he avoids the injury bug, anything less than a second Sabol Bowl title would be a huge disappointment.
To that end, he does have to keep an eye on Tyreek Hill who is nursing an ankle injury but has been practicing this week.
On William’s side (0-2), David Montgomery is questionable with a thigh injury and seems unlikely to play on Sunday. One of his exciting young options, Tank Dell, also has a thigh injury, so he may not be available as a pivot should Montgomery miss time. The reining Sabol Bowl champion very well could be off to an 0-3 start for the first time since his 0-5 beginning to our inaugural season in 2013.
Current Coaching Risks
Stephen has no coaching risks based on his lineup and FleaFlicker projections as of Thursday morning.
William has a couple of coaching risks as they currently stand. If Tank Dell (proj. 6.23) suits up on Sunday, FleaFlicker believes he should start over Jayden Reed (proj. 6.03). More definitively, with David Montgomery (proj. 3.19) likely out or severely limited this weekend, Dameon Pierce (proj. 9.93) should be in William’s lineup.
Anthony leads all-time series 4-1
A very streaky player through his AFL career, Alex (0-2) can go on a winning streak at any time. In 2021, he began 0-2 and then won six straight games. Unfortunately, he then turned back around and won just one game the rest of the way. Last year he began 5-0, then won just three games through the rest of the regular season.
He’ll be keeping an eye on his two Chiefs player this week as Isiah Pacheco nurses a hamstring injury and Kadarius Toney deals with an injured two.
Anthony (1-1) will keep an eye on Amari Cooper, who played through a groin injury last week and turned in a solid performance but remains on the injury report with a questionable designation ahead of Sunday’s 1pm game against Tennessee.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex has no coaching risks based on his lineup and FleaFlicker projections as of Thursday morning.
Anthony has a pair of coaching risks as they stand. He added Jake Ferguson (proj. 5.28) off waivers Thursday morning and is now slotting him into the tight end position over Kyle Pitts (proj. 6.44). He also has Jake Elliott (proj. 10.41) starting over Nick Folk (proj. 13.57).
Eric leads all-time series 6-5
Riding a 4-game losing streak in their all-time series, Eric (1-1) will look to right the ship and maintain his advantage over Cory (0-2).
After finishing 2-3 in scoring in their respective season openers, Cory fell to 12th and Eric to 11th in scoring in Week 2.
Cory has lost Nick Chubb for the season and Aaron Jones remains questionable with a hamstring injury, plus Joe Burrow’s calf and Amon-Ra St. Brown’s toe have them on their teams’ respective injury reports.
Eric has a slew of injuries to keep tabs on, as well. Austin Ekeler joined Aaron Jones in missing Week 2 after huge Week 1 performances and remains questionable with an ankle injury. Currently in Eric lineup with questionable tags are Breece Hall (knee), DK Metcalf (ribs) and Jaylen Waddle (concussion).
A rebound could be difficult for both managers this week, but Eric appears to have the easier path to another Top 6 scoring performance.
Current Coaching Risks
Eric is currently starting the Broncos defense (proj. -0.01) instead of the Ravens (proj. 3.60). We’ll see if he sticks with that choice.
Cory seems intent on rolling with Joe Burrow (proj. 12.10) if the Cincinnati quarterback is active. Russell Wilson (proj. 13.39) has a better outlook, for now, according to FleaFlicker. Additionally, Cory has Jordan Addison (proj. 8.42) in one of his FLEX sports instead of Aaron Jones (proj. 9.14), though Addison will not be a risky start if Jones does not play.
Week 3 begins tonight in San Francisco as the 49ers will try to do what the Dallas Cowboys did in Week 1 against the New York Giants. Outside of Sean Kennedy’s starting quarterback, Alex Mayo’s defense, and Deebo Samuel for Andrew Perez, there likely won’t be any fantasy implications tonight. Good luck in Week 3!