Written by Cory Puffett
Published September 6, 2022
The 2022 NFL season is almost here, finally. The Bills and Rams will face off in SoFi Stadium on Thursday to open the season and we expect to see quite a bit of scoring in our fantasy league on opening night with several fantasy relevant players on both teams.
For the second consecutive year, all 12 members of A Football Life are returning in our league of record. The stability our league has had in recent years has helped us to navigate the complexity of fantasy football during Covid with relative ease. Hopefully that continues this season as we are sure to continue to run into surprise inactives due to positive cases.
In 2020, 16 draft picks swapped hands for the 2021 AFL Draft. Last year, that number was cut in half with just 8 picks from Sunday’s draft going to a different manager due to a trade from last season. It’ll be interesting to see if that number drops again next year or if some managers again use future draft capital to try and bolster this year’s playoff hopes.
As I always do, I’m outsourcing my grades in order to avoid my own personal bias in assigning draft grades. In the past I’ve used FootballGuys.com, and I’ll use them again this year. But I will also provide some insights from FantasyPros and each manager will receive a link to their RotoTrade team analyzer page.
Managers are ordered by their letter grade from FootballGuys.com with their RotoTrade playoff chances as the tiebreaker. I am also including the FantasyPros draft score for each manager, which is a score out of 100 based consensus rankings of the Top 20 most accurate experts from the 2021 season.
Quick note before we get to this year’s rankings: the 2020 AFL champion ranked 6th in that year’s draft grades and our 2021 champion, Evan Ash, ranked 5th in last year’s draft grades. In fact, Eric, Sean, and Brandon got the top three draft grades last year and all three missed the playoffs. Pre-season projections are fun to think about, but strong in-season management can make all the difference.
The consensus across the board is that Will has an exceptional running backs room. Derrick Henry, James Conner, and Elijah Mitchell are all solid RBs and Will got the latter two at value.
FootballGuys doesn’t like Will’s quarterback situation, but I think that’s mostly because he grabbed Kenny Pickett as a backup and he is their #32 ranked fantasy quarterback. Justin Herbert is a solid starter.
The real concern for Will’s team is his wide receiver corps. Jerry Jeudy, Darnell Mooney, Brandon Aiyuk, and DeVante Parker will have to far exceed expectations for Will to get any sort of production out of the position, and that’s troubling when we’re talking about two-ninths of your starting lineup.
I agree with all three sites on their concern with Will’s receiver group. Only one of them is even among my Top 30 wide receivers, and that’s Darnell Mooney who is the last member of my WR2 group.
FantasyPros is not as upset with Will’s draft as FootballGuys or RotoTrade, however. They gave him the fourth best grade in our draft, but they didn’t love where he took some of his players. His only value pick according to them was Devin Singletary at the 7.3 spot, meanwhile seven of his picks are considered reaches of two or more rounds.
Will put a heavy focus on our new rule, allowing a rookie to be stashed on the Taxi squad and kept as a second keeper next year; we’ll see if he picks the right guy so it can pay off.
Hindsight: In particular, FantasyPros didn’t like his pick of Pat Freiermuth in the eighth round. They suggest he would have been better served taking Miles Sanders in the eighth and Hunter Henry in the 11th instead of taking Freiermuth and Rachaad White with those two picks.
Draft Grade: D+
If we were basing draft grades solely off the FantasyPros draft score, Alex would have been the first manager we had to talk about.
Like Will, Alex has a solid set of running backs with Jonathan Taylor and David Montgomery leading the way, Antonio Gibson who could be a solid contributor at least until Brian Robinson recovers, Cordarrelle Patterson who was very good last year and should be utilized similarly this season, and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Neither Kirk Cousins nor Derek Carr are projected as Top 12 quarterbacks this season, but proper streaming could yield viable production from the position.
Like Will, the biggest concern for Alex is the wide receiver corps. DeVonta Smith ought to be a solid starting option, particularly if Jalen Hurts takes the step forward many analysts believe he’ll take, but after him it’s a bit of desert on this roster.
Hunter Renfrow is going to see his target share decrease, Jahan Dotson is unproven on a team with a bad quarterback, and K.J. Osborn probably won’t even be Kirk Cousins’ third read. Rondale Moore could return some value, but how much can you really expect from a 13th round receiver who isn’t new to the NFL?
FantasyPros rates Gibson and Stevenson as value picks for Alex, but he reached on almost the entirety of his roster beyond them, including five players they say he reached at least two rounds to get.
Hindsight: According to FantasyPros, Alex should have taken Josh Allen in the second round and Cole Kmet in the ninth instead of taking Kyle Pitts and Derek Carr with those two picks.
Draft Grade: B-
It seems Stephen is making a push for the 2022 Joe Gibbs Award. He’s got a great shot to lead the league in receiving points.
After keeping Mark Andrews in the fifth round, Stephen spent on wide receiver early and often, snatching up Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, and Tyler Boyd.
Stephen also grabbed Jameson Williams, who many expect to light up the field when he returns to health. With this receiver corps, Stephen can probably leave Williams on his Taxi squad and keep him in the 16th next year.
The two most important positions, however, don’t look as good for the 2020 AFL champ. FantasyPros ranks Russell Wilson and Trevor Lawrence as their #10 and #20 quarterbacks, respectively. They also don’t view any of his running backs as a for-sure RB2, much less a Top 12 back.
While FantasyPros is a little bit more optimistic about Stephen’s chances this year, they do provide two hindsights that, together, would have significantly improved his team. They suggest that instead of taking Tyreek Hill in the 2nd, Trevor Lawrence in the 12th, Brian Robinson in the 13th, and Calvin Ridley in the 15th, Stephen would have been better served taking Josh Allen, Russell Gage, DJ Chark, and Mark Ingram, respectively, with those four picks.
FantasyPros grades two of Stephen’s picks as steals; they believe he got Ken Walker and Tyler Allgeier at least two rounds later than they should have been drafted. However, they also graded a few of his players as reaches, including both Bengals receivers who they believe he reached by at least two rounds to get.
Hindsight: While FantasyPros is a little bit more optimistic about Stephen’s chances this year, they suggest that instead of taking Tyreek Hill in the 2nd, Trevor Lawrence in the 12th, Brian Robinson in the 13th, and Calvin Ridley in the 15th, he would have been better served taking Josh Allen, Russell Gage, DJ Chark, and Mark Ingram, respectively, with those four picks.
Draft Grade: B-
Is this team going to be great? I have some concerns that all three sites share, but this squad should at least be a significant improvement over Brandon’s 2021 team.
FootballGuys has concerns about both the running backs and receivers, which isn’t good because those positions make up more than half of a starting lineup except in rare cases where a tight end starts in a FLEX spot.
I’m not as concerned about the two positions. While Javonte Williams and Chase Edmonds aren’t RB1 guys, I expect Brandon to get solid production out of both players this season. He doesn’t have much room for injury, though, with only Kenneth Gainwell on his bench.
At receiver, Michael Pittman is a solid first receiver who Brandon got at great value. Diontae Johnson should be a strong WR2 and he has a plethora of guys behind them, any of whom could hit and be great FLEX plays on a week-to-week basis.
With Tyreek Hill gone, I also expect the Mahomes/Kelce stack to be even more valuable than in years past.
It should be noted that RotoTrade likes Brandon’s draft quite a bit, with only the wide receiver group projected to be significantly worse than the average team. The only position group they rate a C or worse is the kicker position, where they say he should try to upgrade from Rodrigo Blankenship.
For as low as they rank his RB and FLEX spots, FantasyPros did rate both Edmonds and Gainwell as value picks, alongside Trey Lance as his second quarterback. They were not as happy with his picks of Diontae Johnson, Bateman, Toney, or Kirk, all of whom they believe he could have gotten a couple of rounds later than he took them.
Hindsight: FantasyPros says Brandon should have taken Miles Sanders in the seventh and Russell Gage in the 11th instead of selecting Kadarius Toney and Kenneth Gainwell with those two picks.
Draft Grade: B-
Every site seems to look at Anthony’s roster as very average. It has some strong pieces, but a lot of things will have to go right for him to make the playoffs considering only four of our twelve managers qualify.
With Aaron Jones and Amon-Ra St. Brown projected as Anthony’s FLEX starters most weeks, he ought to get fantastic production out of those two roster spots. FantasyPros ranks Anthony’s FLEX position third in the AFL.
But he is going to have to keep an eye on the waiver wire at all four offensive positions. FantasyPros ranks his QB position 8th and his RB, WR, and TE positions each 9th in the league. FootballGuys seems to think the same way.
RotoTrade is a little more bullish on Tom Brady as Anthony’s starting quarterback, and they like his RB situation. But wide receiver and tight end are huge red flags and they suggest Cam Akers and St. Brown as possible trade pieces to try and improve his roster.
Of his 16 players, only Josh Jacobs at 5.09 is considered a value pick by FantasyPros. The following players were all considered reaches, even when accounting for players often going earlier due to our keeper settings: Terry McLaurin, Brandin Cooks, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chase Claypool, Julio Jones, Deshaun Watson, Dallas Cowboys DEF, and Daniel Carlson.
Hindsight: Anthony really ticked off FantasyPros with his 12th round selection of Deshaun Watson. Thirteen of their 15 hindsight suggestions for Anthony addressed that one pick in some way. The top four all suggested that he take Russell Gage in the 12th instead and either take Trey Lance instead of Julio Jones in the 10th, Joe Burrow instead of St. Brown in the sixth, Kyler Murray instead of Brandin Cooks in the fourth, or Trey Lance instead of Chase Claypool in the ninth.
Draft Grade: B
We’ve got a bit of disagreement between the sites as it pertains to Evan’s team. RotoTrade likes his team quite a bit, giving him the fifth highest playoff odds and an endorsement of his team as a title contender.
FantasyPros is tempering expectations, placing Evan right below league median with significant concerns at quarterback and tight end and moderate concerns at running back.
FantasyPros, meanwhile, ranks Evan’s draft 11th and really doesn’t seem to like the value he got on of his players except Cooper Kupp.
I certainly have some concerns about Evan’s running backs behind Najee Harris as he’s essentially got three handcuffs in Tony Pollard, Melvin Gordon, and Alexander Mattison. But honestly, I don’t view this as a huge problem. Pollard and Gordon are both guys who can score some points even with their teams’ starters on the field, so either of them should be fine for Najee’s bye week. Evan also has enough wide receiver depth that he probably doesn’t need to start multiple running backs most weeks. And if any of Ezekiel Elliott, Javonte Williams, or Dalvin Cook get hurt, all three of his backups become immediate RB2, if not RB1, candidates for the week.
FantasyPros really liked a handful of Evan’s picks. All three backup running backs are rated as value picks, including Melvin Gordon who was rated a steal by at least two rounds. Robert Tonyan is also considered a value pick by the site. On the flip side, they say he did reach on Dallas Goedert and reached even more significantly on players like Adam Thielen, Allen Lazard, George Pickens, and Michael Gallup.
Hindsight: The four alternate decisions FantasyPros believes would have provided the biggest benefit for Evan’s team all involved taking somebody other than Alexander Mattison in the 11th round. The change that would have moved the need the most is taking Irv Smith in the 11th round and taking Josh Jacobs instead of Dallas Goedert in the fifth.
Draft Grade: B
While FantasyPros and FootballGuys are a little more reserved in their endorsement of this team, RotoTrade really likes Alex’s team.
The biggest gap between the sites is in their thoughts concerning Alex’s RB and FLEX positions. RotoTrade really likes Clyde Edwards-Helaire and either Raheem Mostert or Chris Olave as his FLEX starters and they’re also much more bullish on Nick Chubb as his RB1.
Personally, I lean slightly more toward RotoTrade than the other two sites in my assessment of this team, but I do have concerns. I’m okay with the starters at RB and WR for Alex, I love Josh Allen as his starting QB, and at least one of Daulton Schultz, Dawson Knox, and Hunter Henry should provide strong value at tight end.
But with two QBs, three TEs, two kickers, and two defenses on Alex’s roster, he has very little depth at the position that usually make up more than half of his starting lineup. If anybody gets hurt, his season will be virtually unsalvageable.
And at the tight end position, he might find himself pulling out his hair as he tries to figure out which guy to start each week. If he picks right every time, he could wind up with TE3 or better production over the course of the season. But if he picks wrong even half the time, he could miss big games and wind up with the equivalent of the TE20.
The biggest reaches Alex made according to FantasyPros were Allen Robinson in the fourth, Chris Olave in the ninth, and Tyler Bass in the 13th round. The only player he took who is considered a value pick is Edwards-Helaire in the sixth.
Hindsight: The number of change FantasyPros would make if Alex could redo his draft is to take Justin Jefferson with the fourth pick instead of Nick Chubb and then take AJ Dillon in the fourth instead of Allen Robinson.
Draft Grade: B
Despite offering a lower playoff chance than any of the four projected playoff teams, FantasyPros offered high praise for Cory’s draft, saying, “You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft.”
Quarterback, running back, and receiver are all considered positions of strength. Tight end is going to be a frustrating position to manager for Cory. He was the last manager to take a tight end and while some sources believe Gerald Everett is this year’s top breakout candidate, he’s not a sure thing and Cory put all his eggs in one basket by not taking a flyer on another tight end.
In addition to strengths at the three core offensive positions, all three sites like his picks at defense and kicker as well as his roster depth. Miles Sanders and Isaiah Spiller were considered steals during Sunday’s draft and James Cook is also rated a value pick. DeAndre Hopkins, Gerald Everett, and the 49ers defense were considered reaches.
Hindsight: There is a strong conviction on FantasyPros’ part that Cory should have taken Jarvis Landry in the 14th round instead of Isaiah Spiller. Their top two other switches to pair with that chance are taking Ezekiel Elliot instead of Keenan Allen in the third or AJ Dillon instead of Jaylen Waddle in the fourth.
Draft Grade: B
Could we finally see Andrew return to relevance in the AFL? The 2016 runner-up has gone a combined 17-40 over the past four seasons. He is the only manager with a .500 or better season in that span and only Alex Mayo, who has won 14 games since joining the league in 2020, has fewer wins in that span.
Andrew had the worst or second worst draft in each of the past three seasons according to FootballGuys, but this year they give him the last spot in the playoffs and FantasyPros is even higher on his team, giving him the third highest draft score in the league!
While he’ll be in a world of hurt if he loses Joe Mixon for any length of time, especially if Ezekiel Elliott becomes less involved in the Cowboys’ offense and if James Robinson cedes even more work to Etienne than expected, Andrew does have a lot of strong receivers to take care of his FLEX spots on a week-to-week basis.
Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans are a solid 1-2 punch and Gabe Davis, Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Lockett, DJ Chark, and Jarvis Landry are all guys who could provide value at FLEX. With an embarrassment of riches at the position, Andrew has trade pieces to work with if he can find a taker. Of course, knowing the offers he usually makes, finding a taker probably won’t be a concern.
Robinson is rated a value pick for Andrew because of how far he dropped, but FantasyPros did have some concerns about how far he reached for his bench receivers in addition to Justin Tucker and the Packers defense. Personally, I feel like Andrew took those guys pretty much where they should’ve been taken so the criticism is unwarranted.
Hindsight: FantasyPros feels very strongly that Andrew should have taken Justin Jefferson with the fifth pick instead of Joe Mixon. The three other changes they suggest would have moved the needle most for him would have been to either take Miles Sanders instead of Tyler Lockett in the eighth, Josh Jacobs instead of Marquise Brown in the fifth, or AJ Dillon instead of Gabe Davis in the fourth.
Draft Grade: B+
According to RotoTrade, Sean is tied with Andrew with the highest playoff probability in our league; granted they don’t look at the league as a whole, which is why I rely primarily on FootballGuys and FantasyPros for my draft grades write-up.
Running back seems to be the only position of concern for Sean, and I’m even less concerned than any of the sites’ experts. I think Saquon Barkley is going to be better than he’s been the past few seasons, Dameon Pierce is likely going to be the workhorse in Houston, and Rashaad Penny could build off some impressive performances from the 2021 season and hold on to the lead role in Seattle’s backfield this season. It’s definitely his weakest position group, but I think he’ll be okay.
For as much as the experts don’t like his running back room, FantasyPros likes all of Sean’s backup RBs as value picks. His biggest reaches according to the site are Drake London, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Tyler Higbee.
Sean has had a couple of down years since his 2019 title run. He did get the second-best draft grade a season ago and it didn’t pan out, but he put together another solid draft on Sunday and there is plenty of reason for optimism.
Hindsight: The number one concern for FantasyPros was Sean’s selection of George Kittle in the third round. While most sites like Kittle this year, nobody views a borderline Top 5 TE as a value pick there. The top suggestions are to take AJ Dillon in the third and either Albert Okwuegbunam for Khalil Herbert in the 11th or Robert Tonyan for J.D. McKissic in the 14th, or to take Kyler Murray in the third and Robert Tonyan instead of Matt Ryan in the 13th.
Draft Grade: A-
The 2018 AFL champ seems to have a wide range of outcomes this season. FootballGuys loves his team. They view his receiving corps as a position of weakness, but they remain in the camp of believers in building the rest of the roster with the understanding that receivers are the easiest to find on the waiver wire.
RotoTrade, on the other hand, adds concerns regarding William’s tight end room and his depth, concerns echoed by FantasyPros.
Draft picks FantasyPros really likes at their value include Kareem Hunt and Zamir White. On the flip side, they have concerns about where William took players like T.J. Hockenson and Nico Collins.
Having a first-round keeper always makes it a little more challenging to get value, especially early in the draft when it matters most, so the fact that William was still able to get a Top 3 playoff projections out of this draft is quite impressive. He’s missed the playoffs with winning records in each of the last two seasons; we’ll see if he can get back into the postseason in 2022.
Hindsight: The four changes FantasyPros suggests would have made for a much better draft for William are to have taken Rashaad Penny instead of T.J. Hockenson in the sixth, Trey Lance instead of Nico Collins in the 10th, Russell Gage instead of Justin Fields in the 12th, and Robert Tonyan instead of Zamir White in the 14th.
Draft Grade: A
Considering Eric usually starts with FantasyPros’ ECR as his baseline every year, it should come as no surprise that he received yet another Draft Score of 100 from the site like he did in 2020. In fact, this is the third consecutive year Eric has been given the highest draft grade by both FantasyPros and FootballGuys.
Maybe that’s not for the best, though, as he’s gone 11-18 and missed the playoffs twice over the past two years. He’ll hope for better fortune this go-round.
FootballGuys rates his team above average at every position. RotoTrade seems to agree and likes AJ Dillon and Robert Woods as possible trade pieces to bolster his roster.
FantasyPros ranks his quarterback room of Tom Brady and Jameis Winston seventh in the league, but every other position group is rated in the top half of the AFL.
Value picks for Eric included Jamaal Williams in the 12th, Michael Carter in the 11th, and AJ Dillon in the fourth, according to FantasyPros. Notable reaches included DJ Moore, Robert Woods, and Skyy Moore.
Hindsight: FantasyPros didn’t particularly care for Eric’s 13th round pick where he took Jameis Winston. Instead, they suggest he could have either taken DJ Chark there and Justin Herbert instead of DJ Moore in the third or Robert Tonyan in Winston’s place and taken Kyler Murray instead of Darren Waller in the fifth.
Draft Grade: A
With the 10th annual AFL Draft in the books, it’s finally time to get to football and find out just how accurate these draft grades are.
Be sure to come back every Wednesday for my weekly league recap where I’ll cover noteworthy performances and add historical context for our league’s history dating all the way back to 2013.