Written by Cory Puffett
Published November 3, 2022
Week 8 made for an exciting midpoint to our season. Cory Puffett set a record with more than 200 points, nearly all of it from his seven offensive players, Alex Kincaid’s kicker, Nick Folk, was just three yards worth of field goals or an additional extra point away from setting a new AFL single-game kicker record, and we had our highest combined point total since Week 5 of 2021 when we set a new single-week league scoring record.
So far this season, every manager in the AFL has played two of their three division opponents. This week we’ll complete that first circuit before playing each of our division rivals once more over the course of the final three weeks of the season (Weeks 13 through 15).
Bye weeks can certainly have a way of unbalancing some of these regular season matchups, and it’s unfortunate that this set of divisional matchups comes in one of the heaviest bye weeks of the season with six NFL teams out of action.
The Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, and San Francisco 49ers are all off this week. Only Week 14 (also a key week of divisional matchups and the penultimate week of our regular season) has as many teams on bye as this week.
Alex leads all-time series 2-0
Just a few weeks ago we were looking ahead to this game as a potential meeting between unbeatens trying to gain supremacy in the AFL East. The latter part of that sentiment is still true, but both managers have now lost twice in their past three weeks. For his part, Sean is coming off back-to-back losses.
With Nick Chubb and Dalton Schultz on bye for Alex and Saquon Barkley and George Kittle on bye for Sean, both managers are similar affected this week. Sean does have a couple of injuries to monitor as Davante Adams has been limited by an illness this week and Gus Edwards has a hamstring injury.
The injury to Edwards is going to be particularly frustrating for Sean to manage since the Ravens play Monday night and he doesn’t have any other Monday players rostered who he could turn to if Edwards is inactive. He may have to pivot on Sunday to ensure he gets points out of that starting roster spot.
Sean is the only manager in the AFL who has never beaten Alex. We’ll see if that holds true. Alex opens as the favorite, but by less than a point.
Current Coaching Risks
Sean currently has Gus Edwards in his lineup. Even without considering his injury designation and status as a Monday night player, FleaFlicker is back to recommending he activate and start Drake London off his TAXI squad. Additionally, Sean added and is starting the Seattle Seahawks defense, but the Kansas City Chiefs defense was available on waivers Wednesday and that’s who the platform says Sean should have grabbed.
Alex has two coaching risks based on his current lineup and projections. FleaFlicker says he should swap out Hunter Henry for Dawson Knox at tight end and Evan McPherson for Tyler Bass at kicker.
Eric leads all-time series 6-3
There’s no doubt that Eric is relieved he doesn’t have to face Christian McCaffrey this week. The 49ers are on bye which means Kyle Shanahan’s new toy, who last week became the first player since LaDainian Tomlinson to score a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown in the same game, can’t hurt him.
Despite that, Cory opens as a 33-point favorite in a critical game for both managers. Cory is trying to solidify himself as the likely winner of the Tom Landry Banner while Eric is trying to remain in contention for a playoff spot.
Darren Waller was a last-minute inactive this past Sunday and Eric couldn’t swap him out of his lineup in time so he got a big fat goose egg. He’ll have to keep an eye on his hamstring injury at this week. Waller has been at practice but he’s been limited. He’s also hoping for a bounce-back game from Joe Burrow.
It would go a long way for Eric is Robert Woods can have one big game this season and have it come this week. CeeDee Lamb is Eric’s most noteworthy player on bye and he doesn’t have any other receivers on his roster he can pivot to.
Current Coaching Risks
Eric has a few coaching risks based on his current lineup. FleaFlicker says he should swap out Waller for Evan Engram at tight end and Michael Carter for Jamaal Williams in the FLEX. Additionally, the Atlanta Falcons are projected to score negative points, meaning Eric should either start the Cleveland Browns on their bye and take the zero or make a claim for the Los Angeles Chargers.
Cory added Wil Lutz to start at kicker this week after a second failed stint on the team by Matt Gay. FleaFlicker says Cory should have picked up Greg Joseph instead.
Alex leads all-time series 2-1
Brandon opens as a 2-point favorite in a critical matchup. Like Alex Mayo and Eric Meyer, Brandon is trying to sweep all three of his division opponents in his first trip through them.
He has a lot of players on bye this week, but fortunately the only one of note is Diontae Johnson, who has started in each of Brandon’s first eight games.
Alex is giving Kyle Pitts another shot in the starting lineup after the Falcons tight end enjoyed the biggest fantasy day of his season and the third-highest scoring output of his AFL career, but saw those points wasted on Alex’s bench.
Meanwhile, David Montgomery is slated to get just his fourth start of the year for Alex.
Current Coaching Risks
Brandon picked up Matt Prater to start in place of Robbie Gould who is on bye, but the Arizona kicker has a right hip injury and is questionable so FleaFlicker thinks it would have been better to pick up Greg Joseph.
Alex has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Stephen leads all-time series 4-0
A 5.5-point favorite to open the week, Stephen desperately needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt, but so does William Battle who has yet to win a single game in their career series.
It’ll be an uphill battle for William, no pun intended, as three key players will sit this week on bye for him. Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper, and Courtland Sutton have made 22 combined starts for William in the first eight weeks of the season and will not be available to contribute to this week’s effort.
In addition, William will have to monitor injuries to D’Andre Swift (ankle), DK Metcalf (knee), and Mack Hollins (heel), all of whom are currently slated into his starting lineup with scant resources available on his bench to fill in should any of them be inactive.
Meanwhile, Stephen has injuries to Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Mark Andrews (shoulder) to keep an eye on and he still has to address his non-offensive roster spots. He has no second kicker or second defense rostered, and with Dallas on bye he won’t be getting any point from their defense or their kicker, Brett Maher, both of whom are currently in his starting lineup. If he addresses those, expect the betting line to increase dramatically.
Current Coaching Risks
Stephen does not have any official coaching risks yet, but FleaFlicker suggests that the players he should make claims for to replace Maher and the Cowboys defense are Greg Joseph and the LA Chargers.
William currently has Nyheim Hines flexed into his lineup, but FleaFlicker prefers Joshua Palmer, who is recovering from a concussion but practices fully on Wednesday.
Anthony leads all-time series 9-3
Opening as a 25.5-point underdog, Will has to deal with a slew of byes this week while the only player on bye for Ant is suspended Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson.
On Will’s side, Brandon Aiyuk, Jerry Jeudy and Pat Freiermuth are all on bye, and he is also without the Pittsburgh Steelers defense, which expects to be a much-improved unit coming out of the bye with the return of all-pro pass rusher T.J. Watt.
With no managers eliminated from playoff contention, this is a critical part of the season for guys like Will who can remain alive with a win inside the division this week.
Current Coaching Risks
Anthony has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Will has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Evan leads all-time series 6-3
Evan is truly in bye week hell. Dak Prescott’s unavailability isn’t that big a deal considering Evan has continued to rely on Geno Smith as his starting quarterback even since the Dallas signal caller’s return from injury. But Evan will also be missing Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, Melvin Gordon, Michael Gallup, and Brandon McManus this week.
Meanwhile Andrew is missing Ezekiel Elliott and Deebo Samuel due to bye weeks, but there’s a chance neither would have been available due to injuries, anyway.
Because of all that, Andrew opens as a 33-point favorite to get an important win and keep his season alive. He’ll have to manage injuries to Aaron Rodgers (see 2017 Brady, Tom), Mike Evans (ankle) and Tyler Lockett (hamstring). Evan’s entire receiver corps seems to be on their teams’ respective injury reports. Marquise Goodwin (groin), Cooper Kupp (ankle), and Allen Lazard (shoulder) all need to be active for Evan to have a shot at this rate.
Current Coaching Risks
Andrew added Randy Bullock this week, and while he’s sticking with Justin Tucker as his starting kicker and Tucker has a higher projection than Bullock, FleaFlicker says if he was going to add a kicker Andrew should have added and started Greg Joseph over both Bullock and Tucker.
Evan added and is starting Isaiah Likely at tight end this week, but he dropped Robert Tonyan who now has the highest projection of any tight end on waivers. Additionally, he is starting Marquise Goodwin at wide receiver instead of Mike Williams, though Williams appears to be at best doubtful this weekend so there’s a good chance that won’t last as a coaching risk.
Week 9 begins tonight with the Philadelphia Eagles and the Houston Texans. While a couple other manages have players who will factor into that game, Cory Puffett’s team will be the one to watch tonight as he tries to get a big head start on Eric with Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and likely Miles Sanders all going tonight.
Good luck to everyone in Week 9!