Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 21, 2022
It’s the second week of divisional games in the AFL which means even the less exciting games on paper could turn out to have massive playoff implications as we approach the end of the season.
For 12 managers, we have only four playoff spots. Three go to division winners, and the first two tiebreakers within the division are head-to-head record and winning percentage within the division.
Our one wild-card playoff spot goes to the best team to finish second in their division, so once again the division tiebreaker could come into play if there are two teams from the same division vying for that playoff spot. That tie would have to be broken before dealing with any interdivisional ties for that final spot in the postseason bracket.
With two of the best teams in the NFL on bye this week, the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles, expect another low-scoring week across the AFL. Let’s get to our previews.
Anthony leads all-time series 3-1
Anthony got off to a descent start on Thursday night, but both Alvin Kamara and Zach Ertz underperformed their projections while the Saints gave Alex almost two more points than they were projected to get.
Neither manager is being hit too hard by bye weeks with only the Eagles defense unavailable to Ant and DeVonta Smith missing from Alex’s lineup.
Both missed out on some big points last night. Taysom Hill scored a touchdown and would’ve given Anthony six additional points if he’d started him over Ertz, but Alex is kicking himself over not taking a coaching risk by starting Eno Benjamin with James Conner inactive. Benjamin had a great game and scored a late touchdown to put his total over the 20-point threshold.
With Brandon Saunders holding a two-game lead in a pretty weak AFL West division, this is an important game for Anthony and Alex. Ant is pushing for a third straight division title and a fourth straight playoff appearance while Alex is trying to make a repeat appearance in the AFL title game.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex has two coaching risks based on current projections. FleaFlicker says he should start Hunter Renfrow instead of Noah Brown if Renfrow is active and he should also start David Montgomery over Brian Robinson in his FLEX.
Anthony has Terry McLaurin slotted into his WR2 spot this week instead of Brandin Cooks, his only coaching risk according to FleaFlicker projections.
Evan leads all-time series 2-0
Alex suffered his first loss of the season last week and the door is open for his second with almost his entire team on bye. With a Bills-heavy roster, he has only one player on his bench, Dalton Schultz, who is not on bye this week.
Chris Olave got him off to a solid start, slightly outperforming his projection on Thursday night, but Evan basically covering the half a point Evan was favored by entering the week’s opening game.
While he’s not hurting as badly as Alex, Evan is missing a couple of big names from his lineup this week thanks to Cooper Kupp and Dallas Goedert both being on bye. Evan has a big decision to make at quarterback and he’s also going to have to keep an eye on reports out of San Francisco regarding their plans with Christian McCaffrey this week as he decides whether to leave Jeff Wilson in his lineup.
Current Coaching Risks
Evan currently has two coaching risks according to FleaFlicker. The platform suggests he start Dak Prescott instead of Geno Smith at quarterback, though their projections have been flip-flopping since the week began. It also says Jeff Wilson should be benched and Najee Harris should be inserted at running back.
Alex has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Cory leads all-time series 3-2
Like Evan, Cory will be keeping a close eye on the situation in San Francisco. He has Christian McCaffrey and is hoping this doesn’t turn into, essentially, the first of two bye weeks for his star running back. He is also hoping CMC doesn’t meet the same fate that has befallen most 49ers running backs in the last few years.
DeAndre Hopkins returned this week and hit his projection almost exactly, helping to soften the loss of A.J. Brown in Cory’s lineup due to the Eagles bye. He’ll hope for similar performances from Tua Tagovailoa for Jalen Hurts as he returns from his concussion(s) and from whoever ultimately fills in for Miles Sanders in his FLEX.
Stephen, meanwhile, needs someone to cover for Justin Jefferson’s bye week absence. He had finally come to terms with holding Russell Wilson out of his lineup, but with Kirk Cousins also on bye it looks like Stephen is going to take a flyer on Marcus Mariota this week.
The big question on the league’s mind right now is what Stephen’s hold-up is in getting Jonathan Taylor off IR and into his lineup. FleaFlicker is also wondering this.
Current Coaching Risks
Cory currently has Alec Pierce set to make his AFL debut in his FLEX, but FleaFlicker suggests he start Damien Harris in his return from injury.
Stephen made a surprising decision to drop the Miami Dolphins defense, which is facing Pittsburgh this week, to start the Cowboys defense against a high-powered Lions unit. Now Stephen will face Miami as they’ve become Cory’s starting defense for the week. Additionally, FleaFlicker suggests Stephen should start Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Allgeier in place of Curtis Samuel and J.K. Dobbins this week.
All-time series tied 5-5
Sean puts his perfect record on the line against Andrew this week and both managers are near full strength, which the only bye week players who have regularly appeared in either starting lineup being Tyler Higbee for Sean and Gabe Davis for Andrew.
Andrew hasn’t adjusted his lineup all week and currently has Davis in his lineup, which accounts for his only current coaching risk.
Sean, meanwhile, has a lot of questionable players in his lineup and he’ll be paying particularly close attention to Saquon Barkley and Ja’Marr Chase as Sunday approaches. The good news is both players are in 1 o’clock games so Sean will have options if he has to pivot.
Current Coaching Risks
Andrew should start JuJu Smith-Schuster for Gabe Davis this week if he wants to avoid a coaching risk based on current projections.
Sean currently has Josh Reynolds in his lineup. FleaFlicker recommends he activate Drake London from his TAXI squad to start in Reynolds’ place, but if he chooses not to do so he’ll also be on the hook for a coaching risk with Marquez Valdes-Scantling also projected to outscore Reynolds in a case of coaching double jeopardy.
William leads all-time series 8-4
This game projects to be a blowout as Eric entered Thursday a double-digit underdog. Kyler Murray underperformed his projection for William, but Eric still faces a massive uphill battle.
Dalvin Cook is Eric’s only player on bye, though he’ll also be keeping an eye on Darren Waller’s health. He has Evan Engram ready as a pivot if needed.
William, meanwhile, doesn’t have any players on bye and is near full-health with on D’Andre Swift’s status up in the air.
The big question for Eric is his defense. The Browns are once again projected to score less than a point, are facing the Baltimore Ravens on the road, and are coming off consecutive games in which they’ve finished in the negative. Eric is last in the AFL in defensive scoring this season, and by double digits. Starting the Browns this week doesn’t seem to be a good formula to change that.
Current Coaching Risks
William currently has two coaching risks based on FleaFlicker projections. The platform suggests he start T.J. Hockenson instead of David Njoku at tight end and, if he’s active, D’Andre Swift at FLEX for Kareem Hunt.
Eric has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Brandon leads all-time series 6-4
With the fewest combined wins of any matchup this week and with Will a double-digit underdog entering Thursday night, this appeared to be the least interesting of our Week 7 matchups. Then the Arizona Cardinals recorded two pick-sixes off Andy Dalton and outscored their projected total by 12 points on Thursday night!
Now this game figures to be a push based on projections and the Cardinals performance and the managers in our game of the week have all the more motivation to claim this week’s Peyton Manning Award.
Only Devin Singletary’s absence is going to be felt in this game in terms of bye week players, but that absence hurt Will even more given that James Conner was inactive last night. Now, Will has to hope for big production from his wide receiver corps, one that features only one Top 24 receiver in the AFL.
Brandon will start his fourth different running back of the year this week, despite not using a FLEX spot on a running back since Week 2, as he has D’Onta Foreman slotted into his starting RB spot after Christian McCaffrey was shipped to San Francisco. He has a lot of mediocre players to choose from for that spot with Chase Edmonds, Deon Jackson, Mike Boone, and Chuba Hubbard all on his bench.
Current Coaching Risks
Will currently has Garrett Wilson slotted in as one of four receivers in his starting lineup this week. FleaFlicker does recommend starting four receivers, but the platform suggest DeVante Parker in Wilson’s place.
Brandon has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
With the opening game of Week 7 in the books and a couple of days before action continues, we’ll see which coaching risks managers decide not to take, as well as what new coaching risks might pop up.
Good luck to everyone in Week 7!