Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 26, 2022
Weeks 4 and 5 felt like the ship of this fantasy season was righting itself.
Scoring was back up to where we typically expect it to be; our per-team average in Week 4 was about six points higher than we saw through the 2020 and 2021 seasons while Week 5 was virtually right in line with each of the past two years. It also seemed like the players you would expect to do well were turning in fantasy-relevant performances as opposed to this hodge-podge of uncertainty we’re starting to become accustomed to.
These past two weeks, though, have been brutal. In Week 6 our 12 managers averaged less than 97 points per game, an absurdly low number even with the scoring adjustments we made this past offseason.
This past week our league totaled 1,241.19 points, which ranks 90th in our league’s 132-week regular season history. It was almost 7 points per team per game higher than Week 6, but still dropped our season-long average to under 108 points per game; we’re currently about five points per team per game below our 2020 and 2021 season averages.
Again, we expected to see scoring take a small dip this year after we added tiered thresholds to defensive points and yards allowed penalties. But we also added tiered bonuses for punt and kick returns, which should have helped limit how much those other adjustments hurt our defensive scoring.
We also didn’t think the changes to completion, carry, reception, and first down scoring would have a huge impact on overall scoring through the season. Those were really just to make sure players were earning appropriate point totals for their contributions on the field within individual games. When I tested it vs last year’s scoring, its impact on individual player games could be significant, but with very few exceptions the impact on players’ season-long point totals was negligible.
All that is to say, we are feeling the hurt that many on Twitter are lamenting. Scoring is way down across fantasy football and none are safe from the consequences of the deteriorating level of play in the NFL. It just isn’t the same when you don’t have Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford all playing at elite fantasy levels alongside Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow.
Let’s jump into this week’s game-by-game breakdowns, starting with Week 7’s game of the week.
This was probably the most important game of Week 7, and Anthony got the job done in the most lopsided game this week. Led by Josh Jacobs and Jason Myers, Ant earned his 16th career Peyton Manning Award, tying Evan Ash for the second most in AFL history behind Eric Meyer’s 19.
Jacobs scored 38.25 points to lead all running backs in scoring and place himself 36th on the AFL’s all-time single-game leaderboard at the position. Myers led this week’s starting kickers with 17 points, tying him with several other players for 45th on the kicker list and earning Ant kicker coach of the week honors.
With the win, Anthony improves to 16-15 in his career Game of the Week appearances and droppes Alex to 2-7 in his career.
Both managers left Top 5 positional performances on their benches this week, and both those players were in the Thursday night game. For Anthony, it was Taysom Hill who turned in the week’s TE5 performance with 10.60 points. Meanwhile, the RB5 performance sat on Alex’s bench in the form of Eno Benjamin and his 22.21 points.
After it happened just once in our league’s first six seasons, we’ve now had four years in a row with a team losing a game despite being the week’s second highest scorer.
It is the third time in league history such a game has occurred in Week 7, and Sean has now been involved in all three of those games. In Week 7 of the 2019 season, Sean beat William Battle by 1.88 points and in Week 7 last year, Sean beat Will Massimini by 3.14 points.
This time, Sean was on the losing end, falling by 7.32 points, the third highest (or third lowest depending on where you stand on half-empty vs half-full) point differential in the five games in AFL history where this scoring anomaly has occurred.
By leading the league in scoring, Andrew secured his fifth career Tom Brady Award, passing both Brandon Saunders and, finally, his brother Adam. He is now one behind Stephen April, William Battle, and Alex Kincaid. This was Andrew’s first time leading the league in scoring in nearly five years, with his last Tom Brady Award coming in Week 13 of the 2017 season.
Sean will be kicking himself for a couple of mistakes this week. Nobody will blame him for starting Lamar Jackson over Daniel Jones, so it’s hard to call that decision a “mistake,” but Daniel Jones did wind up as the week’s QB2 with 32.06 points, so that was a missed opportunity for him.
The bigger mistake was Sean’s decision to cut Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who was projected to outscore Josh Reynolds, the Lions receiver Sean decided to insert into his starting lineup. That coaching decision cost him a league-high 12.35 points and the win, giving him the Week 7 Hue Jackson Award.
After taking the loss, Sean is now once again tied for the best record in the league. He did extend his league-leading active 100-point game streak to seven games. And despite the worst luck you can possibly have in a single week, Sean remains the second luckiest manager in the AFL this season at 1.1 wins above expected by breakdown and 1 win above expected vs weekly league median.
It’s always fun when a matchup comes down to Monday night; well, maybe not so much for those involved in the game, but for the rest of us on the sideline it’s great fun!
That’s just what happened when Brandon took a 0.06-point lead into the final game of the week with Jakobi Meyers left to play for him and Darnell Mooney left to play for Will.
Mooney had three more targets, one more reception, and 19 more yards than Meyers, but the latter made an incredible play mid-way through the second quarter to score a touchdown that wound up being the difference-maker.
Will joins Sean this week as the league’s second unlucky loser. He’s had a terrible season since his Week 1 victory, now having dropped six games in a row. It’s a shame that his first week among the Top 6 scorers since the season-opener went to waste. He’s now the unluckiest manager through Week 7 at 1.1 wins below expected, ahead of five other managers who are tied at 0.5 WBE.
Brandon earns this week’s Top Coach award for earning a league-high 12.19 points and the win by succeeding on his only coaching risk. He started Chuba Hubbard instead of Caleb Huntley, who had the highest projection entering Sunday of any of his rostered running backs.
Brandon now has the second longest active 100-point game streak at three games. He also has the highest odds of winning his division. PlayoffComputer gives Brandon a 75.8% chance of winning the AFL West.
Depending on Thursday’s stat corrections, this will be the 28th game in AFL history to be decided by one point or less. Stephen has already been penalized half a point for a fumble and subsequent recovery by his Cowboys defense that would have given Cory the victory if it hadn’t been for Raheem Mostert muffing a kickoff return on Sunday night to cost Cory the same penalty.
As it currently stands, this will be the fourth time this season we’ve seen a game decided by such a thin margin, the most we’ve had in a season since the six we had in 2017, and we’re just reaching the midpoint of the season!
Stephen wouldn’t have to bite his fingernails waiting for Thursday’s stat corrections if he had started Tyler Boyd, the week’s WR3 with 26.40 points.
If the win stands, Stephen will earn honorable mention for coach of the week thanks to the 8.13 points and a win he secured based on his one coaching risk, which was to cut the Miami Dolphins defense and start the Dallas Cowboys defense instead.
If that move had backfired, it would have given Cory the victory since he was the one to pick up and start the Dolphins defense this week. But it didn’t, and the Cowboys earned Stephen defensive coach of the week honors as they led the league’s starting defenses with 18.51 points.
If the win flips on Thursday, however, Cory will earn a coaching win since he also succeeded on his only coaching risk. Granted it only netted him 4.11 points, but he made a smart decision to not start Damien Harris in his return to the Patriots active roster, though he regrets starting Alec Pierce instead of George Pickens in Harris’s place.
Despite failing to reach triple digits for the first time since Week 2, Eric had the star of the week in Joe Burrow. The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback supported both the WR1 and the WR3 of the week and contributed 42.23 points to Eric’s winning effort.
That point total places Burrow 14th on the AFL’s all-time single game quarterback performance list.
It wouldn’t have been quite enough to make the difference, but William did miss out on the QB4 performance of the week as Justin Fields and his 22.56 points sat on his bench Monday night.
Along with Stephen (or Cory, potentially), Eric earns honorable mention for coach of the week as he also earned a coaching win on the strength of his only coaching risk. He earned 8.78 points by standing by DJ Moore and fading Jamaal Williams despite D’Andre Swift being inactive for the Lions on Sunday.
Eric led the league in Top 5 positional performances this week with four of them.
With this week’s victory, lucky as it was, Alex has now beaten every other member of the AFL that has been active during his three-season career.
That’s really the most notable thing about this game. Alex was the luckiest winner of the week as he finished ninth in scoring.
Free Agent All-Stars vs Tom Brady Award Winner
Every week this season, we will compare the best possible lineup made of players who are unowned in the AFL to the top scoring team of the week in our league. Included percentages for the Free Agent All-Star players represent the percentage of FleaFlicker leagues in which each player is rostered as of Tuesday morning.
Final Score:
Free Agent All-Stars – 168.01
Andrew Perez – 129.86
YTD Tom Brady Award Winner Record: 1-6
On to our recap of Week 7 and this week's power rankings:
Game of the Week: Anthony Battle vs Alex Kincaid
Anthony won with the biggest blowout of the week. Despite duds from Amon-Ra St. Brown and Zach Ertz, Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones picked up the slack while four of Alex’s nine starters failed to score even four points.
Having topped the AFL power rankings for six weeks in a row, now, Alex Mayo has passed Alex Kincaid and Danny Hatcher in career #1 rankings. For those league outsiders who are unaware, Danny is the only manager in AFL history to win multiple titles, having won three of them in 2013, 2014, and 2017. Danny is also the manager who Alex Mayo replaced after the 2019 season.
Last week I held off on publishing my preview article until Friday. I haven’t decided yet if that will be my schedule moving forward, so check tomorrow for my Week 8 preview. If it’s not here, know that it will be posted on Friday.