Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 6, 2022
With our new 15-week regular season schedule introduced last year when the NFL expanded to a 17-game, 18-week season, makes Week 5 an interesting one for us.
Two of our matchups are between managers who have already faced off this season, two are between managers who will play again in Week 8, and the last two are between managers who will play again in Week 12.
None of these are divisional matchups. Instead, they are based on a combination of their placement within their division last season and what new division they were drafted to in 2022.
This afternoon, FleaFlicker has been having some communication issues with their stat and projection provider and so some players projections have disappeared and reappeared intermittently. Coaching risks were gathered prior to these issues and so may not reflect projections as they currently appear.
Let’s jump into things!
Anthony leads all-time series 3-0
Both managers are coming off a terrific Week 4 in which they finished in among the Top 3 in scoring and were separated by less than half a point. As one of two matchups featuring two teams at or above .500 this week, this one made the most sense to tap as the Game of the Week.
This is a historic matchup for Ant. He’s appearing in his 30th game of the week in his AFL career, the most all-time and one more than Evan Ash. He is 15-14 in his previous appearances.
Alex, meanwhile, is playing for the Peyton Manning Award for the 8th time in his career. He’s the newest member of the AFL, but he now pulls into a tie with Alex Kincaid, no longer alone with the fewest game of the week appearances among active managers. He’s had some bad luck in previous matchups and is just 2-5 in his appearances.
After ranking 2nd in our season-opening power rankings, Alex has topped the chart for three weeks running and is hoping to maintain that by earning his first career victory against Anthony. His Bills-heavy lineup certainly makes him vulnerable to any lapses in their team success, but they’ve got a juicy matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are still without T.J. Watt, this week.
He’s expecting big games from Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Bass, the Bills defense, and Dawson Knox if the tight end is healthy enough to play. He'll be watching that situation closely. He has Dalton Schultz available, but the Cowboys tight end was active this past week and did nothing.
While he was targeted three times, Schultz’s only fantasy contribution was the half a point he lost on a false start. For what it’s worth, he was also called for holding against Washington, though that penalty was declined.
Anthony, meanwhile, has a couple of injuries to manage. Tom Brady popped up with a shoulder and finger injury, sat out Wednesday, but was spotted at practice Thursday. Alvin Kamara has also been limited this week with a rib injury after being a surprise inactive Sunday morning in London.
Current Coaching Risks
Anthony picked up the Jacksonville Jaguars defense off waivers Wednesday morning. It’s likely he intends to start them, but they currently remain on his bench, and it would be considered a coaching risk to leave the Philadelphia Eagles in his lineup in their place.
Alex currently has Corey Davis slated to start in one of his FLEX positions, but FleaFlicker suggests that he start Raheem Mostert instead. Alex took the same coaching risk last week and it paid off to the tune of 6.60 points. FleaFlicker is doubling down, and it seems so, too, is Alex.
Sean leads all-time series 6-5
Here’s hoping T.J. Hockenson’s hip injury is no big deal because the Detroit tight end was a huge contributor to William’s Week 4 Tom Brady Award effort. He has a plus matchup on tap against the Patriots this weekend and William would prefer to keep him in his lineup than have to pivot to David Njoku.
Sean, meanwhile, was not even among the top half of the league in scoring last week. He was the beneficiary of a lucky victory to keep his perfect record intact. He’ll put that perfect record on the line in what could very well be the most exciting matchup of the week.
The big question for Sean is whether Rashaad Penny will play. He was a non-participant in Wednesday’s practice. If he’s inactive, Sean will plug Khalil Herbert in, especially if David Montgomery is inactive, but that would still be a coaching risk as we’ll get to in a moment.
Current Coaching Risks
Sean is once again expected to leave Atlanta’s rookie receiver Drake London on his TAXI squad as he has arguably the best eligible second keeper for 2023 in the AFL. Even after his 1.15-point dud in Week 4, FleaFlicker is projecting north of 13 points and thinks Sean should be starting him. We’ll see if this continues to pay off for Sean; he won the Week 4 coach of the week award by starting Dameon Pierce in London’s place.
William currently has Kareem Hunt starting in one of his FLEX spots, but FleaFlicker believes that, with Jonathan Taylor inactive tonight, William should be starting Nyheim Hines. The platform also believes, as it has for the past few weeks, that Harrison Butker should start over Younghoe Koo if the Chiefs kicker is active, which he hasn’t been since Week 1.
Cory leads all-time series 7-4
Despite having one of the best rosters in the AFL, Cory has been having trouble getting out of his own way. His coaching has opened the door for opponents a couple of times this season already.
He appears to be going with FleaFlicker’s recommendations this week as he looks to reach his best start since 2017 when he started 6-1 before ultimately finishing 9-5 and losing in the first round of the playoffs.
He’ll have to keep a close eye on Jaylen Waddle’s injury. He’s been limited this week after barely contributing to last Thursday night’s game.
Andrew, meanwhile, is coming off his best game of the season but has to manage injuries to Marquise Brown and to the only tight end on his roster, Hayden Hurst. Andrew really can’t afford to lose much more. He has two 4-0 teams in his division and only one non-division winner can make the postseason.
Current Coaching Risks
Andrew has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Cory has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
All-time series tied 3-3
Alex hasn’t done very well this season and morale on his team has to be at an all-time low as nearly half of his team is on the trading block.
This is one of two repeat matchups this week. Alex had a hot start in their head-to-head series, but Evan beat Alex in the season’s opening game of the week after also beating him in the final game of 2022 in the AFL Championship.
Still, Alex is about a 6-point favorite in this matchup with Evan. The good news for Evan is that his team is very healthy, with only Allen Lazard dealing with an ankle injury. Lazard was the cause of Evan’s Week 4 Hue Jackson Award as he went off on Evan’s bench after being suggested as a replacement for Tony Pollard in his starting lineup.
Meanwhile, Alex has to keep an eye on a knee injury for Breece Hall and a hamstring issue for Kyle Pitts. He’s also got to manage his QB streaming situation as neither of his rostered quarterbacks is ranked higher than 18th at the position so far this season.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex claimed and is starting the Tennessee Titans defense this week instead of the Jaguars, who were not claimed until Thursday morning. That is a coaching risk according to FleaFlicker. The platform also recommends he start David Montgomery instead of Antonio Gibson, assuming Montgomery’s ankle injury does not render him inactive this weekend.
Evan, for the second week in a row, currently has the wrong starting QB slotted into his lineup as of this article’s publication. Last week he had Carson Wentz in his lineup and switched to Geno Smith before kickoff and it paid off big time. This week it’s the reverse, as he has Smith slated to start but FleaFlicker says Wentz is the better play.
Stephen leads all-time series 3-1
Stephen earned his first win of the season last week after suffering back-to-back-to-back unlucky losses. Brandon led the league in scoring in Week 1 but hasn’t had a Top 6 week since.
He’ll need a serious bounce-back week from virtually all of his players. Only Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce reached double digits in Week 4.
Stephen has several players with injury designations as we prepare for the weekend. J.K. Dobbins missed practice Wednesday with a chest injury while Chris Godwin and Tee Higgins have been limited with knee and ankle injuries and Curtis Samuel hasn’t been at practice this week due to an illness.
Current Coaching Risks
Brandon drafted the LA Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in back-to-back rounds in the draft, planning to stream them this season. FleaFlicker says he has the wrong one in his starting lineup. He’s got the Rams with their matchup against Dallas, but the platform prefers Tampa’s matchup with the Falcons.
Stephen has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Eric leads all-time series 7-6
With only two wins between them, this matchup isn’t particularly intriguing. Nonetheless, it’s an important game for both managers as they try to keep their respective seasons alive.
Eric is a 10-point favorite as of Thursday afternoon, though it’s worth noting there are eight defensive units currently available on waivers with a higher projection than his Cleveland Browns who are hosting the Chargers this Sunday. It’s not a coaching risk, unless he adds a defense other than the Saints, but with a projection under one point it’s not a matchup that inspires confidence.
Will, meanwhile, needs some production from his receiving corps. He is dead last in points from non-FLEX wide receivers this season. His point total from the position is just 32% of the league leader’s point total and barely over 50% of the second worst team at the position.
The two already played each other once this season. Will got the better of Eric in Week 1 with a 21.55-point margin of victory. We’ll see how round two goes this weekend.
Current Coaching Risks
Anthony currently has Brandon Aiyuk slated to start at wide receiver, but FleaFlicker likes Garrett Wilson better this week.
Andrew should start Robert Woods instead of DJ Moore at wide receiver, according to FleaFlicker.
Indianapolis plays in Denver tonight to kick off Week 5. The defenses may both factor in, though only one is currently slated to start in our league. The big fantasy news from this game will be the absences of Javonte Williams and Jonathan Taylor. Will Nyheim Hines emerge as Indy’s lead back in Taylor’s absence? Who will step up in Denver between Melvin Gordon, Mike Boone, and Latavius Murray?
We’ll get some answers to those questions and more tonight. Good luck to everyone in Week 5!