Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 5, 2022
The first three weeks of the fantasy season have been very strange, just ask anybody who has played fantasy football for a half-dozen years or more. The only players who have been consistent at running back have been Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire of all people.
Some others are beginning to emerge from the pack, and we’re starting to get a better of sense of which players we can rely on going forward and which we can’t, but some of the early-season heroes certainly leave plenty of reason to be nervous.
Take CEH as a prime example; after a mediocre rookie season in which he scored around 170 points but did so sporadically, with three games of at least 20 points and five games of less than 10 points, he finished outside the Top 40 running backs last season. Can we really rely on him as the RB3 rest-of-season in 2022? You’re forgiven if you have doubts.
Consider, too, Tyler Conklin of the New York Jets. He’s the TE12 so far and it’s not one anomalous game boosting his status. He’s been consistent through four games. Last year he scored 100 points through 17 games, good for TE19 status. He’s already reached a third of last year’s total and should be a starter in our 12-team league based on his current standing.
Is anybody willing to trust Conklin? He’s currently available on waivers in our league and in 49% of leagues across FleaFlicker’s platform. He went unclaimed off the waiver wire Wednesday morning.
Still, things came together better in Week 4 than in any previous week in 2022. Our 12 managers totaled 1,427.33 points this week. That scoring total ranks 18th among the 129 regular season weeks in AFL history and is the first week this season to enter the Top 50.
Unsurprisingly, after a bounce-back week, Alex Mayo again holds the top spot in our Week 4 power rankings.
Managers in Week 4 took a combined 12 coaching risks. While they were successful on less than half of them, they gained a net 13.62 points across the AFL. The league has earned 27.38 points vs FleaFlicker suggestions this season despite a success rate of just 44.2 percent.
Our best defensive manager through four weeks is Alex Mayo, who has gotten 59.51 points from the position. Andrew Perez has averaged just barely more than 5 points per game from the position and is last in defensive scoring.
As for kicker coaches, Eric Meyer leads the way and hasn’t had to do any streaming. Ryan Succop has been his kicker since Week 1 and he leads the AFL with 44.4 points from his kicker while Brandon Saunders, with just 19.0 points from a combination of three kickers, has been the worst kicker coach so far.
Let’s jump into this week’s game-by-game breakdowns.
Despite a stat correction taking two points away from his New York Giants defense on a return fumble, Cory survived leaving the 49ers defense on his bench to improve to 3-1 and earn an important win against the 2021 AFL Champion.
The San Francisco defense was the highest scoring unit of the week in the AFL with 22.16 points and was one of two defenses in the Top 2 at the position to be sitting on managers’ benches this week.
The victory in the Week 4 Game of the Week gives Cory his 13th career Peyton Manning Award; his last came in Week 14 of the 2021 season. Cory moves into a tie for the fourth most PM Awards in AFL history and is now 13-11 in his game of the week appearances while Evan has now lost two straight to fall to 16-13 in his.
Cory’s decisions to stream the defensive position in Week 4 and to replace Damien Harris with Elijah Moore in his starting lineup opened the door for Evan to eke out a win. Granted, Cory’s latter decision was made in case Christian McCaffrey was ruled out because Harris was the only other 4pm player on his roster, but it still cost him coaching points.
Instead, Evan squandered the opportunity and is this week’s Hue Jackson Award winner. He cost his team a league-high 14.31 points and a victory by failing on his only coaching risk; he started Tony Pollard instead of Allen Lazard, who had a much higher projection on FleaFlicker, in his FLEX spot.
For his part, Cory extended his league-leading active streak of 100-point games to eight, still four ahead of anybody else in the AFL.
Entering Sunday Night Football, Brandon had just 28.34 points with six of his nine players’ games having gone final. He wasn’t in danger of breaking Andrew Perez’s record for the lowest single-game team score in AFL history, but he was certainly on pace for the worst team score since 2016, which we often use as a benchmark because it’s when we went from eight starting roster spots to nine.
Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce made sure this was not a historically bad performance for Brandon, but considering they were two of just four players on his roster to reach 5 points, and the only two to hit double digits, this week certainly left a lot to be desired.
William, meanwhile, had two starters who alone totaled more than Brandon’s first six players combined for. Austin Ekeler and T.J. Hockenson combined for 14 receptions and 5 touchdowns on Sunday in the 1 o’clock window. The latter scored 37.35 points against the Seahawks, the second highest score we’ve ever seen for a tight end in our league, trailing only Darren Waller’s 38.50 points in Week 13 of the 2020 season while playing for Stephen April.
Travis Kelce scored 21.40 points for Brandon, which places him 93rd on the AFL’s all-time tight end leaderboard.
William’s 147.00 points ties him for the 85th highest single-game score in league history and earned him his sixth career Tom Brady Award. It’s been a while for him; the last time he led the league in scoring was Week 7 of the 2018 season.
With William scoring the most points and Brandon scoring the fewest in the league this week, this is the 14th time in league history a matchup featured the scoring bookends for the week. William’s 67.48-point margin of victory is the second lowest point differential in such games since 2016.
Brandon currently has the longest active stretch without a 100-point game, granted that streak stands at just two games.
Two Top 100 all-time positional performers helped Anthony overcome leaving two Top 5 scorers for the week on his bench. He missed out on Philadelphia’s 16.63 defensive points, the second highest defense total, and Jared Goff’s 30.81 points, the second highest quarterback total.
At least at quarterback, Anthony had the third highest quarterback total of the week in the form of Tom Brady’s 27 points and change, so missing out on Goff’s performance wasn’t a big deal.
Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs had a great game for Vegas and for Ant. He scored 35.94 points, good for #54 on the AFL’s all-time running back list.
He also got the 20th highest scoring kicker game ever as Greg Joseph earned Anthony kicker coach of the week honors. The Vikings kicker showed off his leg in front of a British crowd in the NFL’s first international game of the year, scoring 18.90 points, despite missing a PAT, thanks to five field goals in the contest.
Both managers were among the four in the AFL to have four Top 5 positional performers for the week. Andrew ended his 100-point drought at four games. It was the third time he’s had a streak that long and it tied him for the 8th longest drought in AFL history, but he hopes this week is more indicative of what he can expect rest-of-season.
A week after we had three managers suffer unlucky losses, Andrew was the only unlucky loser this week. This loss balances out the lucky win he got in Week 2.
The leader of a third consecutive set of power rankings, Alex bounced back from an underwhelming Week 3 performance and showed why he should still be considered a frontrunner among the 2022 AFL title contenders.
Despite Eric having the highest individual scorer in the matchup, Jamaal Williams, Alex rode three 20-point performers to a comfortable win. There were no other historically relevant performances to point out from this game.
One of two managers to boast three Top 5 offensive starters in Week 4, Stephen finally got off his unlucky horse and got his first win of the season. The 2020 AFL champ has finished in the top half of the league in scoring all four weeks, albeit never higher than fifth, and has a record of just 1-3 to show for it.
Thanks to Cory and Anthony leaving the top two scoring defenses of the week on their respective benches, Stephen earns defensive coach of the week honors in the AFL, courtesy of the Dallas Cowboys and their 13.62 points. It is the first time this season the top-scoring starting defense has scored fewer than 20 points.
Joining Cory and Stephen as the only managers with at least 100 points every week this season, Sean got a lucky win this week as he finished eighth in scoring. He could have added significantly to his point total, but he left Rashaad Penny’s 30.76 points on his bench.
Penny finished the week fourth in scoring among running backs in a get-right week for the position, notwithstanding Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams.
Sean is the AFL’s coach of the week for Week 4. He took only one coaching risk, leaving Drake London on his TAXI squad and starting Dameon Pierce; he earned a league-high 20.97 points by doing so.
Free Agent All-Stars vs Tom Brady Award Winner
Every week this season, we will compare the best possible lineup made of players who are unowned in the AFL to the top scoring team of the week in our league. Included percentages for the Free Agent All-Star players represent the percentage of FleaFlicker leagues in which each player is rostered as of Tuesday morning.
Final Score:
Free Agent All-Stars – 157.68
William Battle – 147.00
YTD Tom Brady Award Winner Record: 1-3
On to our recap of Week 4 and this week's power rankings:
Game of the Week: Cory Puffett vs Evan Ash
It wasn’t without its share of Monday night nervousness. Without a touchdown, Cooper Kupp couldn’t cash in for Evan on his career high 14 receptions and Cory held on for his third win of the season thanks in large part to Miles Sanders’ big week.
Playoff Odds
Through four weeks, three managers currently have a 50% or higher chance of making the playoffs according to PlayoffComputer.com. Alex Mayo and Sean Kennedy, at 4-0, each have a 72% chance of making it to the postseason while Cory Puffett, at 3-1, is being given a 58% chance to make it.
Cory has the highest odds of winning his division at 52%, the only manager with a better than 50/50 chance through Week 4. PlayoffComputer, meanwhile, figures there’s at least an 87% chance that either Alex or Sean will win the AFL East; they each have a 43.6% chance of claiming a division title.
Come back tomorrow to check out our preview of the AFL’s six Week 5 matchups.