Written by Cory Puffett
Published September 22, 2022
Every year we begin the fantasy season with a pair of games outside the division to get our feet wet before we play the first of six divisional matchups for the season.
This ought to be a fun week of matchups seeing as every division has a tie, whether two-way or three-way, for the best record of their group.
Buckle in as we look for what we can expect in Week 3!
Evan leads all-time series 6-4
Sean gets a shot at back-to-back Peyton Manning Awards after winning the Week 2 game of the week against Brandon. Evan bounced back from a putrid but lucky Week 1 with the third highest score of Week 2.
Assuming his elbow soreness is a non-issue, Sean has a decisive advantage at the quarterback position with Lamar Jackson going up against Geno Smith, who Evan has replaced Carson Wentz with. Elsewhere, the matchup looks pretty even overall so it very well may come down to how well Smith performs against a porous Falcons defense. If he was going to pivot away from Wentz, it was probably wise to switch to Smith from Evan's initial planned starter, Davis Mills, who draws a tough matchup against a stout Bears defensive unit.
Sean seems to be pretty settled with his lineup as he’s expected to bench Rashaad Penny in favor of Dameon Pierce after the Texans flipped the script from Week 1 and completely wrote Rex Burkhead out of the gameplan. The only question is whether Sean will plug George Kittle into his tight end spot to replace Tyler Higbee if the 49ers deem him healthy enough to play Sunday night in Denver.
Evan, meanwhile, is leaning toward starting Tony Pollard on Monday night in place of Adam Thielen. Jeff Wilson, who Evan spent 27 FAAB dollars on last week, is slated to make his 2022 AFL debut with two injuries taking away all of his competition in San Francisco’s run game… except for Deebo Samuel, of course.
Current Coaching Risks
Sean added Daniel Carlson as his starting kicker for Week 3, but FleaFlicker projections say he should have added Cairo Santos. Rashaad Penny is also projected to outscore Darrell Henderson, who is currently in Sean’s starting lineup.
Evan appears to be benching Carson Wentz in favor of Geno Smith, which will go down as a coaching risk if current projections hold.
Alex leads all-time series 2-1
Shockingly, the early-week projections favor Andrew, albeit by less than a point. But Andrew has yet to score 100 points this season while Alex is averaging almost 154 points per game, 22 more than anybody else in the league through two weeks.
The story for Alex this season is always going to come back to the Buffalo Bills. He again expects to have five Bills players in his starting lineup as they head to Miami where early-week forecasts project heat and rain, a mix that may or may not have a huge negative impact on Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Tyler Bass.
If those players struggle, it could be a long weekend for Alex as he’d have to rely on players like Corey Davis and Allen Robinson to pick up the slack.
Andrew will look to even the all-time head-to-head series with Alex. He may have a solid shot at a win if Gabe Davis returns to action. He's undoubtedly disappointed that Mike Evans receives an unfavorable ruling on his suspension appeal on Wednesday, which would have further improved his chances against the AFL's top team in the Week 2 power rankings.
The Green Bay Packers defense, though, projects to score less than one point in Tampa Bay and they already have one negative scoring week this season, so we’ll be watching to see what Andrew decides to do about that position as we get closer to Sunday.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex has Corey Davis in one of his FLEX spots, but Raheem Mostert should be in his starting lineup according to FleaFlicker.
Andrew will need to keep an eye on Gabe Davis. If his is active this week, FleaFlicker says he should be in his starting lineup in place of Jarvis Landry. If Davis does not play, Tyler Lockett should be plugged in for Landry if current projections hold.
Cory leads all-time series 7-3
In a rematch of the 2015 AFL title game, one of these two managers will exit Week 3 with sole possession of first place in the AFL Central. William has been right around the 100-point mark in each of the first two weeks while Cory is second in the league in scoring. He’s one of two managers in the AFL with at least 120 points in each of the first two weeks.
Cory, like Alex Mayo, will be watching the forecast for Sunday’s game in Miami as he hopes for another big week from Jaylen Waddle, who is the WR2 so far this season in the AFL. He also has the QB3 in Jalen Hurts, the TE4 in Gerald Everett, and the RB9 in Christian McCaffrey.
William has two of the AFL’s Top 10 running backs in D’Andre Swift and Kareem Hunt. While it’s hard to expect Hunt to continue producing as an RB1 through the entire season, Swift has been fantastic. He turned in a Top 5 running back performance this week despite only having seven touches against Washington. William will hope for the Lions star running back to be off his snap count and fully re-integrated into Detroit’s game plan when they visit Minnesota on Sunday.
Current Coaching Risks
Cory has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
William has three coaching risks, though one depends heavily on injury. If Harrison Butker returns to action and current projections hold, FleaFlicker believes he should replace Younghoe Koo as William’s starting kicker. On Wednesday, William swapped out DK Metcalf in favor of Amari Cooper, which will be a coaching risk if projections hold. Additionally, William added the Kansas City Chiefs defense this week and has them in his starting lineup, but the Chicago Bears remained available on waivers after they first processed Wednesday morning and had the highest projected total among free agent defenses, so the platform says he added and started the wrong unit.
Stephen leads all-time series 4-3
In another surprisingly close game, at least projection-wise, something has to give for one of these two managers. They’ve both seen more than 260 points scored against them so far this season, more than any other manager in the AFL.
We could see two Jets running backs facing off in this matchup if Eric gives Michael Carter a go in his starting lineup. Carter is currently projected to outscore AJ Dillon and he did have more touches than Breece Hall in Week 2.
Eric, fairly, did not trust CeeDee Lamb last week, but apparently it was too tempting to give him a shot against the New York Giants on Monday night as the Cowboys receiver is currently slatted into Eric's WR2 slot.
There’s no guarantee Stephen will start Breece Hall this week. It seems like he’ll be rolling out four wide receivers just about every week this season as he chases the Joe Gibbs and Curly Lambeau awards in 2022, but there’s a chance J.K. Dobbins will return for Week 3 and, if he does, it’ll be worth consideration to start him over Hall.
The biggest question for this week is what Stephen will do about his defense situation. Miami is a solid unit, but defenses have averaged just 0.52 points per game against the Bills offense so far this year.
Current Coaching Risks
Stephen should start J.K. Dobbins over Breece Hall at running back if he returns to action and current projections hold. Barring that, Stephen has two coaching risks based on his current lineup and projections. He added Dustin Hopkins as his starting kicker for the week and dropped Jason Myers, who is projected to outscore Hopkins and now has the highest projection among free agent kickers. He also added the New Orleans Saints defense but should have added the Chicago Bears defense and started them over his Dolphins defense, according to FleaFlicker.
Eric is currently slating AJ Dillon at FLEX over Michael Carter, which is a coaching risk according to FleaFlicker’s current projections.
All-time series tied 7-7
Brandon had a mildly disappointing Week 2 performance after taking the Week 1 Tom Brady Award. He fell from the league’s top power ranking spot to number three on this week’s list.
He’d love to see a performance from Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce that more closely mirrors their Week 1 outing, and they should have a good chance to do so against a Colts defense that couldn’t seem to slow down the Jaguars at all in Week 2. He’d love to see the Colts stay within a couple scores of Kansas City in that game, though, especially if Michael Pittman returns to the field this week.
Anthony, meanwhile, has yet to start his 16th round keeper, Cam Akers, this season. He’s hoping he won’t have to this week either, but it may depend on Alvin Kamara’s health after he missed the Saints tilt with the Bucs in Week 2 due to a rib injury.
Anthony has the league’s #2 running back (Aaron Jones), #4 wide receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown) and the #5 tight end (Zach Ertz) in the early going.
Current Coaching Risks
Brandon has Rashod Bateman in his FLEX, but Edmonds is currently projected to outscore the Ravens receiver. Brandon also has the LA Rams in his defense slot, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be starting for him according to FleaFlicker.
Anthony has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Alex leads all-time series 3-0
Alex has the worst team in the league so far this season. He’s been one of the two lowest scorers in each of the first two weeks. His team seems to still be reeling from its 2021 AFL Championship defeat.
He swapped in Cordarrelle Patterson for David Montgomery in Week 2. He may have just been following FleaFlicker’s advice, but some coaching risks are virtual layups and that was probably one of them. The additional 11.25 points Montgomery scored over Patterson would have been more than enough to make this a battle between 1-1 managers.
Will is coming off the worst team performance we’ve seen with our current roster settings, but at least he can look back at Week 1 as a sign that his team might be a good one that just had a collective bad week.
The most important thing for Will is the health of his players. Three of his offensive starters left the game, at least briefly, due to injury in Week 2, while Derrick Henry and Devin Singletary were essentially written out of the game script before halftime of Monday night’s game.
Will has to make a decision on Darnell Mooney, who has two catches for four yards through two games this season (he had one catch for eight yards entering Week 2). With Garrett Wilson coming off a big day on Will’s bench this past Sunday, it seems Will has decided to pull the trigger and insert the rookie into his lineup.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex should, according to FleaFlicker, start Hunter Renfrow instead of Jahan Dotson if the Raiders receiver is healthy this week. If Renfrow doesn’t play, FleaFlicker says Alex should start his Wednesday morning waiver wire pickup, Marvin Jones, in Dotson’s place.
Will already has several injuries to keep an eye on with Justin Herbert, Jerry Jeudy, and James Conner all listed as questionable, so coaching risks will have to be heavily re-evaluated later in the week if any of them are inactive. As his lineup stands currently, though, Will has no coaching risks based on current FleaFlicker projections.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland kicks off Week 3; Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, and the defenses figure to be the most prevalent fantasy players in that game. Just about everybody else of relevance to our league will play Sunday with a toilet bowl between the Cowboys and Giants on tap for Monday. Good luck to everyone in Week 3!