Written by Cory Puffett
Published December 15, 2022
It’s the final week of the fantasy regular season! Sean Kennedy and Cory Puffett have clinched the AFL East and AFL Central, respectively, and William Battle has clinched the league’s wild card out of the AFL Central.
All that is left to determine is who will win the AFL West and which two managers will join Eric Meyer and Andrew Perez in the Snyder bracket of the consolation ladder.
All four teams in the AFL West are within a game of each other, but only Anthony Battle has been mathematically eliminated from winning the division title. Even if he beats Alex Kincaid this week, he can’t beat out the winner of the game of the week, which features Will Massimini and Brandon Saunders.
If Brandon wins that game, he will win the division outright regardless of the outcome of the game between Anthony and Alex.
If Will can win the game of the week, though, things get much more interesting. In this scenario, if Anthony beats Alex, Will would take the division thanks to the division head-to-head tiebreaker, in which Will would be 3-1 in games against Brandon and Anthony while Brandon would be 2-2 and Anthony would be 1-3 in games against the other two of the trio.
Meanwhile, if Will wins, Alex would win the division if he beats Anthony using the same tiebreaker method. In games between Alex, Will, and Brandon, Alex would be 3-1, Brandon 2-2, and Will 1-3.
So this week, Alex is rooting for Will and Will is rooting for Ant. Brandon can only win the division if he beats Will or in the unlikely scenario that Alex and Anthony tie. In that case, we’d have just a two-way tie for the division lead between Brandon and Will, and we’d go to the third tiebreaker, which is points. Will would have to outscore Brandon 145.73 points to flip that one.
Without further ado, let’s get to this week’s slate of games, starting as always with the game of the week.
Brandon leads all-time series 7-4
This is the only game this week in which both managers are still in playoff contention, and it’s also one where the loser will be eliminated regardless of the outcome of any other game (we’ll assume that Alex and Anthony will not tie).
Pat Freiermuth’s foot injury will need monitoring this week by Will. He picked up Colts rookie tight end Jelani Woods this week in case the Muth can’t go; Indy plays Minnesota, which has been one of the 10 worst defenses against fantasy tight ends this season.
Brandon, meanwhile, has to deal with a foot injury of his own that Antonio Gibson is nursing. The Washington running back has to share the backfield with Brian Robinson, but they’ve got a juicy matchup against a Giants defense than ranks 31st in rushing DVOA.
Brandon won his first matchup with Will back in Week 7 by less than 3.5 points, so buckle in for what ought to be a very exciting game of the week!
Current Coaching Risks
Brandon has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Will currently has DeAndre Hopkins in his starting lineup, but with Kyler Murray’s injury FleaFlicker suggests replacing him with Brandon Aiyuk. Additionally, the platform didn’t love his decision to add Cameron Dicker to start at kicker, suggesting he should have gone with Cairo Santos instead.
Alex leads all-time series 2-1
While it’s unlikely he would fall out of it, Alex would love to win this game and lock himself into the top bracket of the consolation ladder. It won’t be a cakewalk, though, even with Lamar Jackson out of Sean’s lineup and Rhamondre Stevenson nursing an ankle injury.
Since starting the year 5-0, Alex has seen his team implode. Despite having five players in his lineup this week who are Top 5 at their respective positions, they’ve all seemingly taken turns underperforming and it’s cost him several games along the way.
Sean is already locked into the 2-3 game in the AFL semi-final, so he’ll be relaxed this week. The only thing he’s playing for this week is the first annual AFL Pro Bowl.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex currently has Dawson Knox in one of his FLEX spots ahead of Raheem Mostert, who has a higher projected point total for this week.
Sean seems poised to start Gus Edwards on Saturday afternoon, but both Rhamondre Stevenson and Cole Kmet have higher projections, so FleaFlicker suggests leaving Edwards on the bench and starting Stevenson or, if the Patriots RB is still questionable Sunday at 1pm, consider pivoting to Kmet in that second FLEX spot.
Stephen leads all-time series 4-1
William is locked into the wild card so he gets to relax this week while Stephen stresses over the possibility of playing in the Snyder bracket. Nobody wants to be there, this year more than ever with a punishment on the line for the first time in league history.
Stephen will be hoping for both Justin Field and Russell Wilson to be either inactive or ineffective on Sunday as both of William’s quarterbacks are currently listed as questionable, Fields with an illness and Wilson with a concussion.
Tee Higgins was ineffective last week for Stephen and is still nursing a hamstring injury. After three solid performances off Cincinnati’s bye week, Higgins had no catches and, in fact, no targets against Cleveland, even with Tyler Boyd inactive. He’ll look for the AFL’s WR16 is bounce back this week against Tampa Bay.
Current Coaching Risks
William has Joshua Palmer slated to make his seventh consecutive start this week, but FleaFlicker prefers Courtland Sutton if the Broncos wide receiver is active; he’s currently dealing with a hamstring injury
Stephen has J.K. Dobbins lined up to start in his FLEX after a solid Week 14 outing, but with Kenneth Walker’s injury designation gone, FleaFlicker prefers Stephen’s projected 2023 keeper in this week’s lineup.
Eric leads all-time series 6-4
This matchup doesn’t project to be a very good one. Eric is locked into the Snyder bracket. Cory is locked into the AFL’s #1 seed and will play the winner of the AFL West next week. There’s nothing to play for here except pride.
Cory has won the last three meetings between the co-commissioners after starting his career 1-6 against Eric. He’ll try to make that four in a row this week in this playoff tune-up.
Current Coaching Risks
Cory dropped Tyler Higbee this week, but FleaFlicker likes him better than either Foster Moreau or Austin Hooper, the latter of whom Cory picked up to start this week. Additionally, he picked up Wil Lutz to start at kicker but FleaFlicker suggests he should have put in a claim for Jake Elliott.
Eric also has two coaching risks this week. The one that’s likely to stick is his decision to start Diontae Johnson (Q-hip) instead of Michael Pittman. The other likely will change, but if Darren Waller is activated off IR this week and plays, FleaFlicker seems to like him better at tight end than Tyler Conklin.
Anthony leads all-time series 4-1
This is a big game for both of these managers. While Anthony has been eliminated from the playoffs, a loss could very well place him into the Snyder bracket of the consolation ladder. The same is true for Alex, but he at least also has an opportunity to make the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Josh Jacobs has lived on the injury report lately, but Anthony probably shouldn’t be too worried. The Raiders running back hasn’t missed a game this year, has failed to score double digits only twice, and hasn’t failed to score 20 or more since Week 9!
Alex has more to worry about. Trevor Lawrence is coming off a huge game but missed the first two practices this week due to a toe injury. He was dealing with that entering Week 14, but the missed practices could indicate an aggravation. In addition, Brian Robinson, like Antonio Gibson, is licking his chops at the Giants defense he could feast on this weekend, but he’s dealing with a quadriceps injury and Alex will have to keep an eye on that.
Current Coaching Risks
Anthony has Taysom Hill slated to start at tight end this week. Earlier in the week that looked like the right move, but FleaFlicker has updated their projections and is back on Gerald Everett as a better play.
Alex dropped the Carolina Panthers to open the week before adding them back on Thursday morning, but FleaFlicker would have preferred to see him pick up the New Orleans Saints defense.
Evan leads all-time series 7-3
This is the game with the least riding on it in Week 15. Even Cory at least is playing for a spot in our Week 18 Pro Bowl.
Evan is locked into the Butkus bracket of the consolation ladder while Andrew is locked into the Snyder bracket.
Andrew once tried to become the only manager to record negative points in a week; could he make a second attempt after the first try failed? We wouldn’t recommend giving up potential keepers, but if there was a time to try it would be a week like this when fielding an uncompetitive lineup wouldn’t affect any of the other 11 managers.
Current Coaching Risks
Evan has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Andrew has D.J. Chark in his starting lineup at wide receiver, but JuJu Smith-Schuster has a higher projection.
The final week of our regular season kicks off with an NFC West showdown between the 49ers and the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. With running backs and wide receivers on both teams, plus Geno Smith, George Kittle, and the San Francisco defense all viable fantasy options this week, we should see a solid bit of scoring before we get to Saturday’s triple header. Good luck to everyone this week!