Written by Cory Puffett
Published December 1, 2022
We have arrived at my favorite part of every season, the division round robin that spans the final three weeks of regular season action. Out of 12 managers, 10 remain alive for just four playoff spots. Three of them could be locked up this week as all three divisions could be clinched if five games go just right.
Let’s take a quick look at this week’s clinching scenarios, powered by PlayoffComputer.
Let’s break things down division-by-division:
AFL East
Sean currently holds a two-game lead over Alex Mayo in the AFL East and a three-game lead over Evan Ash. A win for Sean would eliminate Evan from the division race, even if Evan wins, because Evan will still trail the division leader by three games with just two remaining.
Sean’s victory would also eliminate Alex if Evan beats him, as it would create the same scenario.
If Sean loses, though, Evan could remain in contention (albeit barely) with a win or Alex could significantly increase his chances by winning and pulling to within a game of the division lead.
AFL Central
It’s a pretty straight-forward scenario this week for Cory: win and the division is his. With a four-game lead over Stephen April and a five-game lead over Eric Meyer, only William Battle remains in the picture.
He’s only one game behind Cory, and a win for Cory would knock him two games back with two games left to play. But, even if Cory then lost his last two games and William won both of his, Cory would win the division on the head-to-head tiebreaker since Cory already beat William back in Week 3.
But a win for William can flip things on their head. They’d be tied for the division lead, tied in head-to-head matchups, and would have equal 2-2 division records with two games each left to play. Cory would still control his own destiny since he holds a significant scoring lead (almost 12 points per game!), but one more slip-up could hand William the division title.
AFL West
Like Sean, Brandon holds a two-game lead in his division with both Will Massimini and Anthony Battle in the mix and Alex Kincaid not yet mathematically eliminated.
This week, Brandon plays Anthony in a game that received consideration for game of the week. If Brandon wins that game, Anthony will be eliminated from division contention as he’ll be three games back with two games to play. If Alex can remain unbeaten against Will, Brandon would also have three-game leads over both of them and would secure the division title.
If Brandon and Will both win, however, the door will remain open for Will. If he can win his final two games, with Brandon losing to Alex in Week 14 and then to Will in Week 15, they’d finish tied at 8-7, with each having beaten the other head-to-head, and they’d both be 4-2 in the division.
In that scenario, it would come down to our points tiebreaker. Brandon has a pretty comfortable lead by more than 15 points per game (more than 180 points in total), so it wouldn’t be a great situation for Will, but the chance exists.
Meanwhile, if Brandon loses, things get very interesting. Anthony would be just one game back with two games to play, and Will also would pull to within a game with a victory over Alex. Anthony has a significant advantage in scoring, but the Week 14 matchup between him and Will would very likely become the game of the week as it could set one up to take the division from Brandon.
There is still plenty to be determined from these three divisions, not to mention the league’s wild card spot, but it all starts this week and the only game that doesn’t really factor into things much is the matchup between Stephen April and Eric Meyer, though Stephen is still mathematically in the hunt for the wild card.
Let’s get to our game-by-game previews.
Cory leads all-time series 8-3
It’s been tough for William to find a foot hold in this series as Cory has dominated pretty much since the start of our league. Back in 2015, Cory beat William by nine points in the AFL Championship and, more recently, Cory has won five of their last six meetings, including their Week 3 matchup this season.
This week, Cory (9-3) opens as a nine-point favorite, and so much depends on William’s quarterback situation. One thing we hate about the NFL having such late bye weeks is that sometimes they create major issues during this crucial part of our fantasy season, and this week that plays out with Kyler Murray on bye.
A lot depends on the health of Justin Fields. He was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice and if he can play, he could be a game changer for William (8-4), especially since he’ll likely need to run even more than usual with Darnell Mooney injured.
In the event Fields can’t play, William will need to find a pivot. He picked up Jacoby Brissett off waivers Wednesday morning, and maybe he knows something the rest of us don’t but Brissett isn’t expected to play this week with Deshaun Watson returning to action.
While the rest of William’s roster is healthy and ready to go, Cory has a couple of players he’ll need to keep an eye on this week as both Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne are on the injury report. McCaffrey did not practice Wednesday due to a sore knee and Etienne was limited with a foot injury that took him out of Sunday’s game after just two touches.
Supposedly Etienne was cleared to return, so that should bode well for his availability this week, but it’s a wait and see game. The good news for Cory is he has plenty of depth if he needs to fill for those two with both Keenan Allen and George Pickens available on his bench.
Current Coaching Risks
William had inserted Jacoby Brissett into his starting lineup, apparently expecting him to get some playing time on Sunday. FleaFlicker says Justin Fields should start if he is healthy but would have preferred that William have added Jared Goff in case Fields can’t go. The other risk William is sitting on currently is his decision to start Joshua Palmer instead of D’Andre Swift.
Cory currently has Jaylen Waddle slated to start instead of Travis Etienne, who is questionable with a foot injury.
Evan leads all-time series 2-1
Alex opens as a huge favorite this week after earning his first head-to-head win in the series back in Week 7. He’ll look to even up the all-time series this week and keep himself in not only the AFL East division title conversation but also the wild card mix.
Bye weeks aren’t an issue for either manager this week, but injuries sure are. It’s been well-documented that Evan’s team has been virtually decimated by injuries to the likes of Cooper Kupp, Dallas Goedert, and Mike Williams.
Evan (6-6) acquired Justin Jefferson a few weeks ago in a trade with Stephen April. While Jefferson has been excellent, averaging 20.4 points per game since then and 18.8 points per game over the course of the season, only bested by Stefon Diggs this year, the main purpose of that trade was to pair two stud receivers and instead Evan continues to sport just one in his lineup.
On the other side of the ledger, Alex (7-5) has seen both is 4th and 6th round draft picks (Allen Robinson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire) land on the IR over the past few weeks. Robinson had only appeared in six starting lineups before landing on IR on Tuesday, but CEH started every week but his bye over the first 10 weeks of the season.
With that said, after a solid early season that made him a strong FLEX play, CEH had faded significantly over the past several weeks and it may have been a blessing for Alex that he was forced to remove him from his lineups after he landed on IR. This week it’ll be Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon Alex has to keep an eye on in injury reports.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex has Dawson Knox in one of his FLEX spots, but FleaFlicker projections suggest Corey Davis should replace him.
Evan is poised to start Zay Jones, who was limited in practice Wednesday with a chest injury, over Allen Lazard. Additionally, he dropped Cairo Santos, who now has the highest kicker projection on waivers, to add and start Greg Zuerlein.
Brandon leads all-time series 8-7
Honestly, the opening line for this game might be a bit skewed, but so much depends on the injury situation Anthony is facing.
Of the six matchups this week, this is the one we’ve seen the most times in AFL history. It makes sense as this is the third straight year Anthony (5-7) and Brandon (7-5) have shared a division.
Anthony is 3-2 in their meetings in that span, but it was Brandon who got the best of Anthony back in Week 3 by nearly 25 points. On a historical level, it’s worth noting Brandon beat Anthony in the 2013 NFC Championship before falling to Danny Hatcher in Sabol Bowl I.
This week, the status of Josh Jacobs and Aaron Rodgers will be first and foremost on everyone’s mind heading into this matchup. Both logged limited practices on Wednesday with calf and shin injuries, respectively. Jacobs is coming off a monster performance in Week 12 and Anthony will be hoping for more of that this week.
Brandon, meanwhile, has a couple players to watch on the injury front. Antonio Gibson popped up on the injury report with a foot injury and Jakobi Meyers, who FleaFlicker believes should be in the lineup if he’s active, is questionable for Thursday with a shoulder injury. If he’s inactive, we’ll have to see what direction Brandon goes in to cover for D’Onta Foreman, who is on bye this week.
Current Coaching Risks
Anthony has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Brandon still has D’Onta Foreman in his starting lineup in place of Jakobi Meyers, who is questionable for TNF. Additionally, he currently has the Washington Commanders defense in his lineup, but FleaFlicker believes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be a better play.
Andrew leads all-time series 6-5
Sean is one of two active managers Andrew has a winning record against in his career (he is also 6-5 against Anthony Battle). He’ll try to change that this week as he looks to lock up the AFL East or at the very least set himself up to do so next week.
The opening line suggests Sean (9-3) should have an easy time of it this week, but Andrew (3-9) has a number of players with high ceilings. Their low floors have been his downfall, but if he gets one week where everyone hits, Sean could find himself in a bit of hot water.
But Andrew has a lot of injuries to manage this week. Aaron Rodgers sat out practice Wednesday with injuries to his ribs and thumb, Deebo Samuel was limited by a quad issue, Joe Mixon practices in a limited fashion but still needs to work his way back from a concussion, and both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Michael Gallup missed practice Wednesday with illnesses.
On Sean’s side, so much depends on Ja’Marr Chase and Lamar Jackson, the latter of whom popped up on Baltimore’s injury report Wednesday after he injured his quad in practice and was forced from the workout.
Chase, meanwhile, supposedly was cleared to play this past weekend but held himself out of the game as a precautionary measure. The Bengals would sure like to have him back this week against Kansas City, and Sean would like to have him back in his starting lineup, too. Well, he’d like him to score in his starting lineup, unlike Week 12 when he was in the lineup but didn’t do anything for him.
Current Coaching Risks
Sean has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Andrew is currently expected to start Gabe Davis, but FleaFlicker suggests removing him in favor of Joe Mixon (if he clears concussion protocols) or JuJu Smith-Schuster (if he recovers from his illness). Both have higher projections than Davis. Additionally, Andrew picked up the Green Bay Packers defense off waivers Thursday morning to start them instead of the Bears defense, but FleaFlicker suggests the New York Giants would have been the better pick-up.
Alex leads all-time series 4-0
Wow, a very narrow line indeed! Alex (4-8) opens as the favorite by the slimmest of margins over Will (5-7). This is the first time the two crew enthusiasts have shared a division in the AFL. So far Alex has not fallen in their head-to-head matchups, most recently winning by 11 points in Week 3.
With Breece Hall and Kyle Pitts on IR, Alex has had to turn elsewhere for consistency, something he hasn’t had much of this season. Alex has started a league-high 29 different offensive players this season. He’s currently slated to start #30 after picking up Evan Engram off waivers Wednesday morning.
For Will, this matchup couldn’t come at a worse time. James Conner and DeAndre Hopkins will both be missing from his lineup on account of the Cardinals’ bye week, and to make matters worse Darnell Mooney landed on the Bears IR this week and even if Christian McCaffrey is inactive, so will be Elijah Mitchell after he reinjured his knee this week.
We’ll have to see where he’ll turn to try and get some points and pull out a victory in a must-win game.
Current Coaching Risks
Will currently has both James Conner and DeAndre Hopkins in his starting lineup despite their bye weeks. We’ll see who he ultimately decides to replace them with, but FleaFlicker suggests replacing Hopkins with Garrett Wilson and Conner with Rachaad White, who is currently on Will’s TAXI squad. It’ll be an interesting decision, as White has been on Will’s TAXI squad all season and is eligible to be kept in the 16th round in addition to Will’s primary keeper, but in a must-win situation perhaps he should activate him. If he’s insistent on keeping White on the TAXI squad, FleaFlicker suggests starting Marquez Valdes-Scanting for Conner.
Alex has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
All-time series tied 4-4
This is Stephen’s fifth year in the AFL, and it’s the fourth time in those five years that these two managers have been division rivals. Eric won their Week 3 matchup this season by a tenth of a point after losing in each of their previous three meetings.
This week, Eric (4-8) has a chance to eliminate Stephen (5-7) from the playoffs and position himself ahead of Stephen in the quest to avoid the sacko bracket of the consolation ladder. To do so, he’ll need to pick the right player to fill in for DJ Moore, who is on bye.
Stephen doesn’t have a lot of managing to worry about this week, with only Najee Harris’s oblique injury on his list of things to keep tabs on. But Eric has to keep an eye on injuries to three of his running backs as Michael Carter (ankle), Leonard Fournette (hip), and AJ Dillon (quadriceps) are all on their team’s injury reports.
Current Coaching Risks
Eric still has DJ Moore in a starting wide receiver slot despite being on bye. We’ll see who he replaces him with, but FleaFlicker currently suggests Diontae Johnson. Additionally, Eric currently has Michael Carter in a FLEX spot instead of Leonard Fournette and the Cincinnati Bengals defense (which has a negative projection) instead of the Atlanta Falcons.
Stephen has no coaching risks based on his current lineup and current FleaFlicker projections.
Week 13 gets under way tonight with the Bills and the Patriots. Both teams played last Thursday so they’ve both gotten a full week of rest for this bout. Good luck to everyone, particularly those with playoff hopes on the line!