Written by Cory Puffett
Published November 22, 2022
The playoff picture is coming into focus as we enter the final four weeks of our regular season. All 12 teams are still mathematically alive, though we did see our first two teams eliminated from division contention this week, a week early than in 2021.
Of our six contests in Week 11, four of them featured teams with different records. Of those four games, only one saw the team with a worse record entering Week 11 leave the week with a victory.
We’ll get to the specifics of that matchup shortly, but the point of mentioning it in the intro is that for the most part, the good teams solidified their playoff positioning while most of the bad teams only put themselves in greater danger of falling into the sacko bracket with the first ever Snyder punishment on the line.
After a wild couple of weeks of trading, it all ended in radio silence as not one single trade was executed in the final week leading up to our deadline, which passed at 6am Tuesday morning.
All the activity in Week 10 led to a ridiculous number of coaching risks, 21 of them in all. That number came way down in Week 11 to the fewest we’ve seen since Week 5. Our 12 managers combined to take just nine risks.
None of those risks flipped game outcomes, but most of them only served to hurt managers’ chances in the event of a points tiebreaker for playoff or consolation seeding. There were only three successful risks in all, and our managers lost a net 20.86 points. Despite a .519 success rate on the season, for the first time we are in the red, having now lost a net 19.58 points vs platform suggestions in 2022.
All told, our managers totaled 1,312.50 points in Week 11 pending Thursday stat corrections. That ranks 63rd out of 136 weeks in AFL history.
I did a little record keeping today. For a few years now, my writeups always include four weekly awards that I hadn’t been tracking. I can always tell our managers how many Tom Brady or Peyton Manning Awards they had won before the current week’s, but that wasn’t something I’d tracked for kicker and defensive coaches of the week, or the overall coach of the week and our Hue Jackson Award winner.
Now, we have that data. The latter two only go back to 2016 as coaching decisions were not something I even thought to track prior to then. And for the former two, we have more kicker and defensive coaches of the week awarded than regular season weeks in league history because of the number of co-winners, particularly early in our league’s history when we kept scoring for those two positions super basic and basically tried to score them out of factoring into games. How foolish and anti-fun we were back then.
From now on I’ll be able to pull that data in to my weekly write-ups. Managers in the league will be able to see that data in the Awards spreadsheet when I update our Google Drive this offseason. I hope, one day, to be able to build a website with all this data so there can be a nicer format with which to store all this information instead of hundreds of separate text documents and spreadsheets, but for now I make do with what I know how to use.
Let’s jump into this week’s game-by-game breakdown.
For the second week in a row, the fourth time this season, and the 32nd time in AFL history, the winner of the game of the week was also the AFL’s leading scorer.
William led the way with the 32nd highest single-game score in league history, aided by five players who posted Top 5 scores at their positions for the week, tied for the most with Stephen April.
This marks William’s 7th career Tom Brady award as he passes Stephen and Alex Kincaid and ties Danny Hatcher. He’s also now won 14 Peyton Manning Awards in 21 tries; it was his first since Week 12 of last season. Evan falls to 16-14 in his game of the week appearances. He’s lost three of them this season alone.
It’s a tough pill to swallow for Evan, who had Tony Pollard in his starting lineup. Pollard went off for 36.25 points, which ranks 56th among starting running backs in AFL history, but it wasn’t enough to get the job done as Evan falls to 6-5. With two 7-4 teams vying for the lone wild card spot, Evan’s in a tough spot entering the final weeks of the campaign.
While William didn’t have any Top 100 individual performers this week, he does earn defensive coach of the week honors for the 17th time in his career, passing Will Massimini and tying Sean Kennedy for the most all-time. The New England Patriots defense did just enough to edge out Brandon’s defense for the top score of the week at the position.
Thanks to that performance, William passed Alex Mayo this week for the most defensive points on the year. He’s averaging more than 12 points per game from the position.
William also earns recognition as the week’s top coach after earning a league-high 19.70 points and a perfect lineup by starting Joshua Palmer instead of Kareem Hunt. That lone coaching risk gives him his 13th career coach of the week award, tying Evan for the most since coaching was tracked at the start of the 2016 season.
See how William’s team did against this week’s Free Agent All-Star squad below.
Despite extending his league-leading 100-point game streak to seven games, keeping Stephen’s now 6-game streak at bay, Brandon took the loss this week as the AFL’s lone unlucky loser.
He already had two lucky wins in his pocket from weeks 3 and 5, and he still holds a commanding three-game lead in the AFL West, so it’s hard to feel too bad for Brandon this week. But it would have been fun to see a repeat of what we’ve seen so many times this season.
Heading into Sunday Night Football, Brandon faced a huge deficit, but Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were just lacing up their cleats. They certainly gave it a good effort. Kelce scored 33.45 points, a Top 10 all-time tight end performance!
Unfortunately for Brandon, the difference may have been Stephen’s kicker. If Stephen hadn’t gotten any points from the position, he would have lost by nearly seven points. The average starting kicker score in the AFL entering Week 10 this season was 8.1 points, so just a slightly-below-average day for Brett Maher could have been enough for Brandon to eke out a victory.
Instead, the Dallas Cowboys kicker had a day with 23.30 points, good for the second highest kicker score of the week and of all-time in our league!
Thanks to his 7-4 record and the combined 12-21 record from the rest of his division, Brandon currently has a 93% chance of winning the AFL West. That’s the best division-winning odds in the league and only one manager has a higher playoff probability than him right now.
In fact, it’s possible for Brandon to lock up the AFL West this week! A win combined with losses by all of his division-mates would lock it up. He’ll be rooting this week for William Battle to beat Alex Kincaid, Evan Ash to beat Will Massimini, and Alex Mayo to beat Anthony Battle for the second time this season.
All three managers he needs to win have better records than their opponents, so this is a very real possibility. It would be the earliest a manager has locked up their division since 2019 when Eric had an 11-1 record and a four-game lead in the AFL Central, granted back then there were only two games remaining in the season at that point.
This game was over even before Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers defense added more than 30 points to Cory’s ledger on Monday night. Anthony was fighting to remain in playoff contention, but now he has just a 2.4% chance of making it; he’ll need to win in Week 12 and then have everything break his way during the division round robin.
Cory didn’t have a lot of exceptional performers on his roster this week, instead relying on a balanced attack with one notable exception. Graham Gano went absolute shankapotamus. He attempted just two kicks on Sunday, both of them PATs, and missed both.
Thanks to the -2 in the kicker box, Cory now boasts the fewest points from the position in the league, taking over the basement from Stephen April with just 67.70 kicker points. He still leads the league by nearly 4 points per game in scoring.
Anthony is this week’s Hue Jackson Award winner after costing his team a league-high 13.16 points on his only coaching risk. It was a silly coaching risk, too, created by his decision to drop Matthew Stafford early in the week. Once he did that, the recommended move by FleaFlicker was to add and start Jacoby Brissett.
Instead, Anthony re-added Matthew Stafford and entered him into his lineup. If he hadn’t dropped Stafford and had never added a QB, it wouldn’t even have been considered a coaching risk and Cory would have been the Hue Jackson Award winner for this week.
This is the 6th time in Anthony’s career he’s been tagged with this not-at-all-sought-after award. He passes Danny Hatcher, Alex Kincaid, and Eric Meyer and ties Stephen April, Will Massimini, and Cory Puffett for the fourth most all-time.
What a day for the Buffalo Bills, at least in the kicking game. Tyler Bass had one of the greatest fantasy days for a kicker in NFL history. Sure, there was the time in 2007 when Rob Bironas made eight field goals in a single game. But the six Tyler Bass nailed on Sunday were still impressive.
Of his six field goals, five earned him more than the baseline 3.00 points. He wound up with 26.20 points on the day, a new AFL record among kickers! He stole Brett Maher’s thunder and earned Alex Mayo his fourth career kicker coach of the week award and his second in a row. He passed Nolan Soter on the league’s all-time list for this award.
Alex had been the leader in defensive scoring this week before William Battle passed him. But even as he lost one positional lead, he took over the lead in kicker scoring for the week, passing Andrew Perez and reaching 115.70 points on the season.
While he certainly won’t give up those 26.20 points, Alex would have been just fine had he used his backup kicker this week. Sure he would have lost a few coaching points, but Evan McPherson sat on his bench with the #3 kicker score of the week!
One other new award we’ve added this week is the David Carr Award. It’s the antithesis of our Tom Brady Award, which goes each week to the top scorer, the manager with a perfect 11-0 breakdown. As the lowest scorer, Alex Kincaid is this week’s Derek Carr Award winner.
Having retroactively assigned David Carr awards to each deserving manager for all 135 previous regular season weeks played in the AFL, this is Alex’s fourth career David Carr Award. Evan Ash and Brandon Saunders are tied for the most in their careers with 14. It certainly didn’t help for Brandon to take home five in a row to end the 2021 season.
At first glance, it would appear Eric really handicapped himself this week. He left the #4 quarterback performance of the week on his bench in the form of Jimmy Garoppolo’s 27.20 points and the #4 defensive outing of the week as the Atlanta Falcons scored a defensive touchdown and totaled 15.84 points.
In reality, only the Falcons would have helped as Joe Burrow, the week’s #3 signal caller, was Eric’s starter, so in terms of wins and losses it was all moot.
If anything, Sean should have beaten Eric by even more seeing as he left the #5 quarterback of the week, Daniel Jones, and his 26.56 points on his bench.
George Kittle made sure none of that mattered, though. He scored 22.85 points on Monday night, good for #74 on the AFL’s all-time single game leaderboard for tight ends.
Eric remains in last among all AFL managers in defensive scoring with just 49.82 points (4.53 ppg) on the year. He’s also now on a three-game streak without a 100-point game. If he failed to reach triple digits again in Week 12, he will tie the longest drought of his career.
The week’s lowest-scoring game didn’t have much to write home about. Andrew was let down by his last-minute add-and-start, Isaiah McKenzie, who garnered just one target and did not score any points in the contest.
It would have been quite a coaching risk, but if he had started Terrace Marshall instead, he would have snuck away with the victory.
Instead, the difference was the six double-digit scorers in Will’s starting lineup to the three in Andrew’s. Now Will has a leg up on some of his competition as our bottom six teams scramble to try and avoid the Snyder Award and the yet-to-be-determined punishment that will accompany it this year.
Free Agent All-Stars vs Tom Brady Award Winner
Every week this season, we will compare the best possible lineup made of players who are unowned in the AFL to the top scoring team of the week in our league. Included percentages for the Free Agent All-Star players represent the percentage of FleaFlicker leagues in which each player is rostered as of Tuesday morning.
Final Score:
Free Agent All-Stars – 163.78
William Battle – 159.69
YTD Tom Brady Award Winner Record: 4-7
This ended a three-game winning streak by Tom Brady Award winners.
On to our recap of Week 11 and this week's power rankings:
Game of the Week: William Battle vs Evan Ash
William opened the week as a 12-point favorite and won by almost 70! With four 20-point performers, even Tony Pollard’s 36-point effort for Evan couldn’t put this game in doubt. William had the lead after all of Evan’s starters had played, even with three players yet to go for him.
Congratulations to Sean on becoming the fifth manager in AFL history to reach 10 career #1 power rankings! He had pulled into a tie with William Battle in Week 9 of the 2021 season before Alex Kincaid swiped the top spot from him.
Another piece of history I went back and tracked this week was career #12 rankings. This is Eric’s second week in a row in that spot and he’s now brought up the basement of the list four times in his career, even with Alex Kincaid and former AFL manager Saswat Misra. Prior to this week he’d been in a tie with Stephen April, Viroj Suteerawongsa, and Evan Ash.
Of our nine managers who have played at least eight full seasons in the AFL, only Evan (3), Cory (2) and Anthony (1) have fewer #12 rankings than Eric now.
Thanksgiving is almost here and with it three games to keep an eye on for fantasy purposes. Check back later this week for my preview of the AFL’s six Week 12 matchups. Hopefully I can get it out before nearly a quarter of the week’s matchups are already in the books.