Written by Cory Puffett
Published November 10, 2022
Week 10 has been the week of the trade. We’re still almost two weeks away from our league’s trade deadline, but things ramped up big time these past few days.
In the first nine weeks of the season, we had three trades, and only three managers were involved. This week alone we’ve had another three trades with six managers involved in them!
All of the trades this week have involved pick swaps as teams begin to buy and sell based on their season outlooks.
Eric Meyer appears to be in full sell mode after sending Dalvin James Cook and a 6th round pick to Brandon Saunders for James Dalvin Cook and a 4th round pick. That player swap might have been worth more than a two-round improvement in next year’s draft, but he’s probably selling a little low on the older brother’s frustrating and sometimes mediocre play this season.
Within an hour of that first trade, Cory Puffett and Anthony Battle reached an agreement that sent Tua Tagovailoa, Miles Sanders, Gerald Everett, and an 8th round pick to Anthony in exchange for Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, Zach Ertz, and a 10th round pick.
That might be the closest thing to a mutually beneficial trade we’ve seen this season, but it likely benefits Cory a little more in the immediate future and thus the pick swap was thrown in. Anthony’s not selling, but he’s in a dicey situation and appears to have one eye on next year.
Then on Wednesday, Sean Kennedy and Alex Kincaid, the latter of whom had been involved in each of the league’s first three trades this year, reached an agreement. Tyreek Hill and Rhamondre Stevenson are now on Sean’s team, along with 5th and 7th round picks in next year’s draft. As compensation, Alex received Dameon Pierce, Adam Thielen, a 3rd round pick, and a 6th round pick.
When evaluating coaching risks this week for these six managers, the formula is to look at how it affects each mangers projection. For Brandon and Eric, this is easy. Eric will be tagged with a coaching risk because Dalvin Cook absolutely should have been in his lineup this week based on his projection and now he won’t be, so whoever starts in his place will count as a risk. For Brandon, it won’t be a coaching risk because he wouldn’t have been starting James Cook, and even if he had been, Dalvin is a massive upgrade, at least according to projections.
For the other two pairs of trade partners, the easiest way to look at it is whether their optimum projection is higher now than before the trade. Of course, I’m only aware that a trade is in the works if I’m involved so I’m often not looking at those numbers before and after, but it’s easy enough to calculate by putting the players back in their starting places, looking at the projected point total for each team if they follow FleaFlicker recommendations, and then compare that to the new projections following the trades.
If your projection is higher now, it doesn’t matter if, for example, Sean should have Dameon Pierce in his lineup instead of Rhamondre Stevenson. If the difference between Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen is bigger, then Sean won’t have any risks tied to the trade while Alex will.
This week is a little lighter on byes than Week 9, but the Ravens and Bengals have a lot of fantasy-relevant players our managers will have to cover for, and there are a few relevant players on the Jets and Patriots, as well.
Brandon leads all-time series 2-1
Alex (6-3) has been on a bit of a skid recently and Brandon is hoping to take advantage of that to solidify himself as a contender for Sabol Bowl X.
Brandon (6-3) won a title in our league’s predecessor but has appeared in only one championship game in the AFL’s 10-year history. Coming off an all-time worst season in 2021, nothing would be sweeter for him than to hoist the trophy and the title belt.
Alex, meanwhile, is attempting to be the third manager in as many years to appear in the Sabol Bowl in his third season as a member of the AFL. Stephen April made it in Year 3, winning Sabol Bowl VIII in 2020. Alex Kincaid lost in Sabol Bowl IX last season in his third season.
Both managers currently have kickers in their starting lineups who are on bye, though Alex has Tyler Bass on his roster and will almost certainly be plugging him into his lineup before Buffalo’s 1pm kickoff Sunday afternoon. We’ll have to wait and see what Brandon will do in the coming days.
As it stands, Brandon opens as the underdog but if current lineups and projections hold, he’ll actually be favored by almost 8 points this week. That’s because Alex currently has Josh Allen on his bench with question marks surrounding the Buffalo quarterback’s availability and health in Week 10.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex has several coaching risks as things current stand. He has Derek Carr slated as his starting quarterback over Josh Allen (Q-elbow), Dawson Knox starting at tight end instead of Dalton Schultz, Evan McPherson as his starting kicker despite being on bye in place of Tyler Bass, and the Indianapolis Colts defense in place of the Buffalo Bills unit.
Brandon currently has Diontae Johnson slotted into his second wide receiver spot, but FleaFlicker projections suggest he’d be better served starting Michael Pittman. Additionally, while he is wisely starting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense over the Washington Commanders, who he added Thursday morning, FleaFlicker says he should have added the Las Vegas Raiders instead of Washington and then started them over Tampa Bay.
All-time series tied 2-2
In what projects to be a very lopsided affair, Cory (7-2) is expected to handle Alex (3-6) easily.
Cory and Alex have both been involved in trades this week. Alex has been looking to gain draft capital for the 2023 AFL Draft while Cory figured he may as well move Tua Tagovailoa since he doesn’t expect to ever pull the trigger and start him over Jalen Hurts. We’ll see if his big move pays off or backfires for Cory.
Alex has a few injuries to keep an eye on this week, most notably from the two players he just acquired in his trade with Sean Kennedy this week. Dameon Pierce has a chest/shoulder injury and Adam Thielen is nursing an ankle injury. He’ll hope they can both go this weekend or he may have to turn to a combination of Rondale Moore (Q-hand), Noah Brown (Q-foot) and Marvin Jones.
Current Coaching Risks
Alex would have had a higher projection this week if he had held on Tyreek Hill and started Rondale Moore instead of sending Hill and Rhamondre Stevenson to Sean Kennedy and starting Pierce and Thielen, who he acquired in that trade. Additionally, FleaFlicker says he should have added and started Michael Badgley at kicker and the New Orleans Saints at defense instead of Cade York and the New York Giants.
Cory currently has DeAndre Hopkins in one of his FLEX spots instead of Travis Etienne, who FleaFlicker really likes this week. Additionally, he added and seems set to start Graham Gano at kicker. FleaFlicker says he should have added and started Michael Badgley if he was going to pick somebody up, or else he should have just stuck with Wil Lutz, who is now on his bench. This is a double risk for Cory this week.
All-time series tied 2-2
Jonathan Taylor has been a thorn in Stephen’s side ever since acquiring him from Alex Kincaid in Week 3. The 2021 Jim Brown Award winner has missed three games since then, has averaged less than 9 points in the four games he’s appeared in, is questionable with an ankle injury this week, and has yet to reach his Week 14 bye. Perhaps this is part of why Stephen (3-6) placed eight of his players on the trading block this week.
Sean (7-2), meanwhile, is buying as we approach the trade deadline and made a big splash to acquire Tyreek Hill, the number one wide receiver in AFL scoring. He’ll have to deal with his bye week next week, but he also acquired Rhamondre Stevenson in that trade, and he’ll be able to plug into his lineup next week.
This one figures to be a pretty good contest as Stephen tries to remain in contention for a third straight playoff berth and Sean tries to maintain control of the AFL East.
Current Coaching Risks
Sean has been going back and forth between a couple of players for his second FLEX spot this week. Currently he’s settled on Cole Kmet, though he’d also plugged Mecole Hardman (Q-abdomen) into that spot earlier in the week. FleaFlicker would consider either to be a coaching risk if they start over Darrell Henderson.
Stephen added Jared Goff to start at quarterback this week. FleaFlicker likes the decision to start him over Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson, but the platform suggests he should have instead picked up and start Jimmy Garoppolo.
Evan leads all-time series 10-3
While he opens as the favorite to win this game, Anthony (4-5) would have had a stronger line if he had not traded with Cory. While both Tua and Everett are projected to outscore Brady and Ertz this week, the gap between Kamara and Sanders is more than both of those swaps combined.
Anthony also has to keep an eye on Aaron Jones’ ankle injury. The Packer running back was extraordinarily ineffective next week, gaining no first downs on 11 touches.
Evan (5-4), meanwhile, should feel pretty confident this week if Allen Lazard (shoulder) and Mason Crosby (back) are able to play. He has more neutral and plus matchups down his starting lineup than Anthony has.
Both managers are effectively playing for their playoff lives right now. Evan is one game out of the wild card, Anthony is two games out, and there are several other teams in that mix so this is a critical game for both managers to have. This was the only other game that was considered for Game of the Week status.
Current Coaching Risks
Evan added the Tennessee Titans to start at defense for him this week with both the Ravens and Bengals on bye, but FleaFlicker believes he should have gone with the Saints when they were available on waivers instead. Additionally, the platform says he should start Dak Prescott at quarterback instead of Geno Smith.
Anthony has three risks this week, all tied to his trade. He acquired and is starting Tua Tagovailoa at QB, Miles Sanders at RB, and Everett at TE, but their combined projection is lower than the combination of Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, and Zach Ertz that he sent to Cory.
Will leads all-time series 7-4
The Battle of the Wills has the lowest spread of the week and ought to be a pretty intriguing matchup. Massimini (3-6) has been much more competitive of late with three straight 100-point games while Battle (5-4) is in the head of the wild card race and is not completely out of the AFL Central title chase.
Every week seems to be the same story for Battle, who has to deal with D’Andre Swift’s ankle injury. He also missed out on a massive game from Justin Fields last week and appears to be rolling him out in Kyler Murray’s place this week. That decision will be made easier if Murray continues to be limited by a hamstring injury that held him out of Wednesday’s walkthrough.
Massimini, meanwhile, has a squad that is virtually at full health and the only player of note on bye for him is Jets rookie receiver Garrett Wilson. Battle had to pick up a defense to start for the New England Patriots who recorded the 10th highest defensive score in AFL history last week.
Current Coaching Risks
Will seems set to start Darnell Mooney at wide receiver, but FleaFlicker believes he ought to start Brandon Aiyuk instead.
William picked up the Arizona Cardinals to start at defense in place of the Patriots, but FleaFlicker believes he should have added the New Orleans Saints, who remained unclaimed after he bid on the Cardinals, instead.
Eric leads all-time series 8-3
Both managers have some holes to fill in their lineups this week and it’ll be interesting to see if either even bother.
Andrew (2-7) has a kicker on his bench to fill in for Justin Tucker’s bye week, but will he make a claim for a tight end to play in Hayden Hurst’s place? And will Eric (3-6) add a quarterback to start for Joe Burrow? The answer really ought to be yes for the competitive integrity of the league, but if they feel that strongly about not giving up players on their bench, neither would go down as official coaching risks.
That said, FleaFlicker does have suggestions if they do decide to pick up players for those spot starts. The platform likes Tyler Higbee for Andrew and Jimmy Garoppolo for Eric.
Besides Burrow, the biggest loss for either team this week due to bye is Joe Mixon, who had the second biggest game by any player in AFL history in last week’s losing effort for Andrew. He potentially has Ezekiel Elliott back this week, but the Cowboys running back continues to nurse an MCL injury and is questionable.
Eric, meanwhile, has started Darren Waller in two straight games, both of which the Raider tight end was inactive for. This week he has Evan Engram slated to start, but now both tight ends are listed as questionable. We’ll see how Eric’s tight end situation looks as we get to the weekend. He does have Logan Thomas available to start Monday night if necessary.
Current Coaching Risks
Andrew currently has Justin Tucker, who is on bye, in his kicker spot instead of Randy Bullock.
Eric has Evan Engram starting in place of Darren Waller, who FleaFlicker likes better if he’s active. He also is starting AJ Dillon at FLEX after trading away Dalvin Cook.
Week 10 begins with the Falcons and the Panthers. There will only be two or three offensive players starting in our league from this game, so good luck to the poor souls who have to sit through this one.
Good luck to everyone in Week 10!