Written by Cory Puffett
Published November 15, 2022
We’re now two-thirds of the way through our regular season. With just two non-division games remaining before our end-of-season divisional round robin, we’ll take a look at all 12 managers’ playoff chances in this week’s power ranking section.
Last season, nobody was eliminated from playoff contention until Week 12. We could see a team eliminated this week, but chances are we’ll again have to wait until Week 12 for anybody to officially lose their spot.
Last week was a wild week of trades in the AFL. While we don’t have detailed trade reports for any year prior to 2019, I am 100% certain we had never, until last week, seen seven trades executed in a single week. With just less than a week until our 6:00 a.m., November 22 trade deadline, it will be interesting to see if there will be any more selling or buying.
One of the fun aspects of our league is that you can trade for picks in the next draft and turn your attention to next season. But you have to be careful. You don’t want to wind up in the lower tier of the consolation bracket, especially this year.
For the first time ever, we will have a punishment this season for whichever manager takes home the Snyder Award. The punishment will be determined by the winner of the first ever Pro Bowl. More on that as we get closer to its relevance.
But for now, managers have to balance their desire to get a leg up on the rest of the league in 2023 and their desire to avoid whatever punishment the Pro Bowl victor decides to dole out to the unfortunate sap who loses two consolation games after finishing among the bottom four teams.
And FYI, Stephen April got quite a haul last season when he sold to get some earlier picks. And see where it got him? He was selling last week! We’ll see if it works out any better for him next time around. And who knows, he made a playoff appearance last season after selling off some of his more desirable players. Maybe he’ll do it again this year.
Week 10 saw another drop in scoring across the league, even as we saw the third highest score in AFL history. Our 12 managers combined for 1,288.01 points, which ranked 76th all-time out of 135 regular season weeks of action.
Thanks in large part to the slew of trades, we saw 21 coaching risks last week! Our managers were successful on 13 of them, but we saw our coaching success for the season almost entirely evaporate thanks to a few really costly ones.
Our managers cost themselves a net 45.10 points in Week 10, so while our success rate is .533 for the season, we’re now just 1.28 points over what we’d have if we just followed FleaFlicker suggestions.
We’ll keep this week’s intro a little shorter than last weeks and jump right into our game-by-game breakdowns. Every game had either a lucky winner or an unlucky loser; it’s the third time this season that’s happened!
It wasn’t quite Cory’s Week 8 performance, but we’ve never seen two games of 180+ points in a single season until now.
Finishing just shy of Sean Kennedy’s Week 5 performance from 2021, Brandon recorded the third highest team score in AFL history this week. He had a lot of terrific performances, including five Top 5 offensive performers.
The biggest boost for him, though, came from CeeDee Lamb, who he acquired in a trade with Eric Meyer last week. Lamb contributed 33.60 points to Brandon’s score, ranking him 49th all-time among starting wide receivers in AFL history.
This was the fifth time in Brandon’s career he led the league in scoring. His most recent Tom Brady Award had come in Week 1 of this season. As this was also the game of the week, Brandon took home his 8th career Peyton Manning Award, his first since Week 13 of the 2020 season.
Brandon’s had some awful luck when he’s been tapped to play in the game of the week. This win improves his record in those games to 8-17 while Alex drops to 3-8. It’s his third time losing in the AFL’s game of the week in the last five weeks.
With Brandon taking home both pieces of hardware this week, this marks the 31st time in AFL history and the third time in 2022 that both awards have gone to the same manager.
This was Brandon’s league-leading 6th straight game with at least 100 points. Thanks to a solid effort by Alex, their combined point total of 299.05 points made this the 7th highest scoring game in AFL history.
Brandon did leave the AFL’s #5 defensive performance of the week on his bench. The Washington Commanders’ 14.01 points went to waste. It was not a coaching risk, but they would have given him the 2nd highest single-game score in AFL history and would have put the combined total for this game over the 300-point mark.
Alex was the league’s 5th highest scorer of the week, making this an unlucky loss for him. He now has two of them this season to go along with two lucky wins. He doubled as the defensive coach of the week and the kicker coach of the week, thanks to the Buffalo Bills defense, which led starting units in the AFL with 17.19 points, and their kicker Tyler Bass who led AFL starters at the position with 13.90 points.
This was a really tough break for Anthony. He had a really bad Week 9 performance, but it came off the heels of back-to-back Top 3 weeks and it didn’t seem out of the question that he could make a playoff push.
He was the league’s #3 scorer this week and, while he’s not out of it yet, that bad luck is going to make it much more challenging for him to make that run. He’s now two wins below expected vs the league median and 1.4 wins below expected by breakdown, making him the second unluckiest manager in the AFL this season.
Anthony earns honorable mention coach of the week recognition after he earned a league-high 11.26 points by succeeding on all three of his coaching risks, which came out of a trade he made with Cory Puffett last week. He sent away Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, and Zach Ertz, whose combined projection was higher than the three players he received in started in their place. But Tua Tagovailoa, Miles Sanders, and Gerald Everett each outscored their counterparts in that trade.
Unfortunately for Anthony, Evan had just a little more going for him this week. He took just one coaching risk, adding and starting the Tennessee Titans defense instead of the New Orleans Saints, which earned him 11.21 points and the win, making him the coach of the week.
Additionally, Evan benefited from his own trade. He acquired Justin Jefferson from Stephen April. So much for ignoring our commissioner’s advice that he should’ve kept him on his team. Jefferson’s 31.70 points tie him for the 78th highest single-game performance by an AFL starting wide receiver.
Sometimes managers just can’t catch a break.
Stephen has now lost four games this season with a Top 6 scoring performance and he has no lucky wins to offset them. If this holds through the end of the season, he’ll join Cory Puffett’s 2020 squad as the only ones in AFL history to finish the season with a -4 luck factor.
By breakdown, Stephen is only 1.6 wins below expected, barely unluckier than Anthony, but luck vs league median is our gold standard of determining how lucky or unlucky a season has been for a manager.
This time, though, Stephen has no right to complain and nobody to blame but himself. He is one of two managers to earn honorable mention for the Week 10 Hue Jackson Award.
Stephen decided last week to sell the farm and stock up on picks for next season. If he had kept Justin Jefferson and picked up Jimmy Garoppolo to start at QB like FleaFlicker suggested, instead of trading Jefferson away, acquiring Dak Prescott, and starting Curtis Samuel, Stephen would have had 23.12 more points and would have won his game.
Despite finishing seventh in scoring this week, William pulled out the win. He is now tied with Brandon as the luckiest managers in the AFL this year. He’s had four lucky wins now this season, though he’s also had two unlucky losses to halfway balance things out.
He can certainly hang his hat on one big performance this week, though. After missing out on a historic performance in Week 9, he plugged Justin Fields into his lineup for Week 10 and the second-year Chicago quarterback rewarded him with 36.23 points, the 64th highest quarterback score in league history. It wasn’t the 46.78 points he scored in Week 9 that would have ranked 4th all-time, but it was still another terrific day for the budding star.
For his part, Will joins Stephen in earning honorable mention for the Hue Jackson Award this week. He took one coaching risk this week, starting Brandon Aiyuk instead of James Conner, and he cost himself 14.28 points. Flipping that would have given him the win by less than half a point.
Games like this are why we have to play them. Cory had by far the highest projected team total entering Week 10 and wound up failing to record 100 points for just the second time this season. Only Sean Kennedy has failed to reach that mark fewer times than him.
While it was not a coaching risk, and in fact Cory earned points from his coaching this week, he left the week’s #4 defensive performance on his bench in the Minnesota Vikings and their 16.71 points. Plugging them in for the New Orleans Saints would have flipped this game.
Instead, Alex earns a lucky win despite finishing 8th in scoring this week. It’s his second such win of the season, only partially balanced out by the unlucky loss he took in Week 5.
Oh Eric.
Andrew was the luckiest manager of the week, taking the win despite finishing 10th in scoring. This was his second lucky win of the season, balancing out the two unlucky losses he’s suffered, so his 3-7 record is exactly where it should be.
The most notable thing about this game is the Hue Jackson Award Eric gets to take home. He traded away Dalvin Cook last week and so started AJ Dillon in his place. That move cost him 16.58 points, by itself enough to flip the outcome of this game and help Eric avoid a trip to the Snyder bracket.
But then he also traded away CeeDee Lamb, received Diontae Johnson in the trade and plugged him into his starting lineup. That risk cost him another 25.40 points in coaching. In all, Eric cost his team a season-high 41.98 points and the win with those two coaching risks, almost singlehandedly wiping away the net positive coaching score the league had built over the course of the season.
Free Agent All-Stars vs Tom Brady Award Winner
Every week this season, we will compare the best possible lineup made of players who are unowned in the AFL to the top scoring team of the week in our league. Included percentages for the Free Agent All-Star players represent the percentage of FleaFlicker leagues in which each player is rostered as of Tuesday morning.
Final Score:
Free Agent All-Stars – 177.05
Brandon Saunders – 187.59
YTD Tom Brady Award Winner Record: 4-6
This was the third week in a row the Tom Brady Award winner beat the Free Agent All-Star team.
On to our recap of Week 10 and this week's power rankings:
Game of the Week: Brandon Saunders vs Alex Mayo
Brandon made a pair of trades with Eric this week. He would have won this game without the assist, but thanks to the additions of Dalvin Cook and CeeDee Lamb, he recorded the third highest score in AFL history.
Cory takes the top spot in our power rankings for the 15th time in his career. We’ll see if he can hold on with Sean breathing down his neck and looking to become the fifth manager in AFL history to lead the list 10 times.
Week 11 is on the horizon. Check back later this week for my preview of the AFL’s next six matchups!