Keeper value: +59 vs ECR (#43)

Other notable keeper options

Mike Davis, Atl RB (+42; could be kept 92nd overall, ECR #50)

Travis Kelce, KC TE (+10; could be kept #20th overall, ECR #10)

As I did in 2019, I’ll begin with myself and then go alphabetically through the rest of our league.

According to FantasyPros ECR, Diontae Johnson gets a keeper score of +59, calculated by subtracting his ECR of 43rd overall from where I’ll get to take him in tonight’s draft, 102nd overall. While this ranks as only the 6th highest keeper score available in our league this year, it’s the second highest keeper score being taken advantage of in the AFL.

 Johnson’s value has certainly increased over the course of training camp and the preseason. His drop rate has been lower than in 2020, he’s been on the field more than both Claypool and Smith-Schuster, and he’s the quick pass target that Roethlisberger is going to feed as his time to throw continues to decrease season after season.

I considered docking my grade for getting rid of a potentially slightly better keeper option in Antonio Gibson, who has a 7th round keeper value, but since I traded away my 7th round pick and would have to take Gibson in the 6th, I’ll keep myself where my initial keeper grade was, with the only penalty being that I did have a consensus top 10 option and chose not to take advantage of an opportunity to get double his value. At least I’m getting more than double Johnson’s value, though.

Keeper Grade: B+

Keeper value: +7 vs ECR (#2)

Other notable keeper options

Chase Edmonds, Ari RB (+58; could be kept 129th overall, ECR #71)

Josh Allen, Buf QB (+45; could be kept 78th overall, ECR #33)

Darren Waller, LV TE (+34; could be kept 57th overall, ECR #23)

Stephen certainly had plenty of options to choose from, including three with a higher keeper value than his ultimate selection of Dalvin Cook. While each of his other three options still would have left him an opportunity to get a good running back or top tier wide receiver in the back third of the first round while getting excellent mid- or late-round value on another player, there’s no question that he would have lost at least one tier at running back.

Personally, I would have gone with Darren Waller in the 5th round and accepted a bit of a drop off at RB1, especially since Cook won’t be on option for Stephen to keep next year, but I can’t fault the decision to get one of maybe two running backs in the league who has a chance to finish ahead of Christian McCaffrey even if he stays healthy.

Keeper Grade: A-

Keeper value: +119 vs ECR (#19)

Other notable keeper options

Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB (+2; could be kept 7th overall, ECR #5)

Jalen Hurts, Phi QB (+2; could be kept 90th overall, ECR #88)

Evan really only had one strong keeper option, and generally I’d penalize a team pretty substantially for having such poor forward-thinking with their roster management. But good lord, is he really about to get FantasyPros’ consensus #19 player in the 12th round? Enough said.

Keeper Grade: A++

Keeper value: +4 vs ECR (#11)

Other notable keeper options

CeeDee Lamb, Dal WR (+56; could be kept 87th overall, ECR #31)

Jonathan Taylor, Ind RB (+22; could be kept 39th overall, ECR #17)

Aaron Rodgers, GB QB (+19; could be kept 87th overall, ECR #68)

Again, it’s not always just about ECR and this is the first instance where I strongly disagree with the decision. Obvious Tyreek Hill is a terrific player. He’s one of the fastest players in the league with excellent hands and the best quarterback in the league throwing him the ball. One could argue that his consensus ranking of #11 is a touch lower than it should be.

That said, when we get around to Anthony’s 2nd round pick at #15 overall, if Tyreek is off the board there will at least be another receiver in a similar tier who he could pair with either CeeDee Lamb in the 8th round or Jonathan Taylor in the 4th round. I think Anthony picked his third best option.

Keeper Grade: C+

Keeper value: -27 vs ECR (#63)

Other notable keeper options

Gus Edwards, Bal RB (+38; could be kept 85th overall, ECR #47)

Myles Gaskin, Mia RB (+31; could be kept 85th overall, ECR #54)

Austin Ekeler, LAC RB (-2; could be kept 13th overall, ECR #15)

This one has me scratching my head. Russell Wilson is an excellent quarterback with two of the league’s best receivers to throw to in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I assume that the Seahawks will come out this season with a refreshed offensive game plan after their early offensive success stalled into a very ho-hum unit down the stretch in 2020.

But the bottom line is that Wilson’s ceiling this season probably isn’t any higher than where William will take him with his 36th overall pick. Even if Wilson does reach that value, with an ECR valuation in the early 6th round, William could almost certainly get him one pick later in the early 4th round or quite possibly at the back end of the 5th round.

Even more surprising is that he didn’t jump on the opportunity to keep Gus Edwards after JK Dobbins went down with a season-ending knee injury. Yes the Ravens have looked at bringing in some more RB depth, but nobody they’ve been rumored to pursue would take all that much work away from Edwards.

Keeper Grade: D

Keeper value: +51 vs ECR (#42)

Other notable keeper options

Robby Anderson, Car WR (+50; could be kept 117th overall, ECR #67)

Sean’s two options have very similar value differentials between ECR and draft value. When that happens the general rule of thumb is to go with the guy who has the higher ECR value.

Add in the fact that Sean has five picks in the first three rounds of this year’s draft, it makes complete sense to keep a strong quarterback so you can spend all those early picks on skill positions without having to even stop and consider using one on a Josh Allen or Dak Prescott ahead of either of their ECR values.

Keeper Grade: A+

Keeper value: +28 vs ECR (#26)

Other notable keeper options

James Robinson, Jac RB (+60; could be kept 94th overall, ECR #34)

Jerry Jeudy, Den WR (+57; could be kept 126th overall, ECR #69)

Given this selection of options, I most likely would have made the switch to James Robinson following the Lisfranc injury sustained by rookie first round pick Travis Etienne. Robinson was stellar last year as an undrafted rookie and figures to be the workhorse back again this year with a rookie quarterback who will likely be happy to get as much help from the run game as he can get.

That being said, any time you can get the best quarterback in the NFL and a consistent top tier fantasy quarterback at more than twice his ECR value, I really can’t argue the decision. And if nothing else, Alex certainly set himself up with some great options to choose from and, fair or not, that weighs into my grading system.

Keeper Grade: A

Keeper value: +20 vs ECR (#21)

Other notable keeper options

Damien Harris, NE RB (+30; could be kept 89th overall, ECR #59)

With the release of Cam Newton, Damien Harris’s value skyrockets. There will be much more goal line work to go around in that backfield and you have to figure Harris will get the lion’s share of it. Frankly, his current consensus ECR of #59 is low in my opinion, which would give him an even higher differential as a mid-8th round pick.

Now, of course I did just get done giving Alex Kincaid credit for grabbing a guy at twice his ECR value, which Will is certainly doing here with DK Metcalf. But there’s a difference between a top tier quarterback like Patrick Mahomes and the consensus #8 wide receiver. This is not a bad selection by any stretch, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t suggest it’s as likely to come back to bite him as not.

Keeper Grade: B+

Keeper value: +38 vs ECR (#12)

Other notable keeper options

Darrell Henderson, LAR RB (+118; could be kept 167th overall, ECR #49)

Look, don’t get it twisted; Diggs at 50th overall is a ridiculous value and Alex will get incredible returns on this option, so I’m not going to bury him too badly. But we’re looking at the alternate option of Darrell Henderson in the 14th round! His value differential is essentially identical to that of Evan’s keeper, Justin Jefferson.

Now obviously there’s a big difference between the consensus #6 wide receiver with an ECR of 19 and the consensus #21 running back with an ECR of 49. But still, to have a projected RB2 in the 14th round gives you a lotof wiggle room to miss on a pick or two in the middle rounds, and I think that’s worth something.

Keeper Grade: A

Keeper value: +8 vs ECR (#3)

Other notable keeper options

T.J. Hockenson, Det TE (+67; could be kept 131st overall, ECR #64)

Mike Williams, LAC WR (+44; could be kept 155nd overall, ECR #111)

I won’t go as far as to say that I would suggest keeping Williams over Henry, despite that strong value in an offense led by a very promising second year quarterback.

And in fact, I won’t call Eric foolish for passing on T.J. Hockenson, who he would have gotten for roughly twice his value with a quarterback who has used two tight ends often in the past and now will have to funnel all of those targets to a very good third year tight end.

Look, the value differentials aren’t there for Eric on this selection, but as our league transitions to put a little more value on first downs than on receptions, Derrick Henry potentially becomes even more valuable in the AFL. I won’t go so far as to say his ECR should rise to #2, let alone #1, but if he was in a Tier 1b all by himself before, he’s got to figure to be solidly in that top tier now.

Still, those other values had to have been tempting, especially knowing that Henry won’t be an option to keep next year.

Keeper Grade: A

Keeper value: -26 vs ECR (#29)

Other notable keeper options

Mike Evans, TB WR (-19; could be kept 22nd overall, ECR #41)

Tyler Higbee, LAR TE (-26; could be kept 70th overall, ECR #96)

If ever there was a guy who needed to make a trade in the lead up to the draft, it was Andrew.

If Andrew absolutely had to go with one of these players, the clear choice is Mike Evans. Sure, Andrew could probably get Evans at 27th overall or possibly 46th if he were to fall a few spaces. But he also could have gotten Kittle at 22nd at the back end of the second round after selecting a top tier running back with his third overall pick.

Keeper Grade: F

Keeper value: +55 vs ECR (#18)

Other notable keeper options

Leviska Shenault Jr, Jac WR (+72; could be kept 169th overall, ECR #97)

My only issue with this selection is that I was dumb enough to trade Gibson away last year. This is FantasyPros’ consensus #12 running back and my personal #9 fantasy running back for 2021. Getting him in the 7th round is an absolute steal and only less valuable than Evan’s keeper by a hair.

Keeper Grade: A+