Written by Cory Puffett
Published September 6, 2021
Another football season is finally upon us and the Cowboys will face the defending Super Bowl Champions in Tampa Bay this Thursday. We all know what that means. It’s time for fantasy!
All 12 members of A Football Life are returning from a wild 2020 campaign. In addition to the constant adjustments we had to make as individual players came on and off the COVID-IR and entire teams had games put in danger (one was even postponed several weeks), we saw more trades than ever before in our league, many of which involved draft pick swaps.
In all, 16 draft picks changed hands last year for this past Sunday’s draft. Sean Kennedy turned 5th and 11th round picks into two additional third round picks. Cory Puffett lost his 3rd round, 7th round, and 10th round picks, but gained two additional 5th round picks and an additional 11th round pick. Eric Meyer had two 4th round picks, his own and defending champion Stephen April’s, who had received Eric’s 6th round pick in a draft pick and tight end swap last season.
As usual, in order to avoid bias in these draft grades, I’ll be ordering everyone by their estimated playoff chance based on average in-season management according to FootballGuys. I use average team management because I have a very high opinion of the effort and ability displayed by members of the AFL.
I will also include the FantasyPros draft score for each manager, a score out of 100 that is based on consensus rankings of the Top 20 most accurate experts from the 2020 season.
Quite note before we get to this year’s rankings, last year’s champion ranked 6th in our 2020 draft grades post, so don’t take these too seriously. Pre-season projections are often wrong and strong in-season management can make all the difference.
Andrew finds himself with the worst draft grade for the second year in a row after being ranked #11 coming out of the 2019 draft. To quote the opening of FootballGuys’ analysis of his team, “Let us say this as nicely as we can; this team is brutal.”
It certainly didn’t help that Andrew took George Kittle, a fine player, as a keeper with his third overall draft pick where he could have had Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, or Jonathan Taylor. Instead, his top running back, Chris Carson, was the 14th taken and then he didn’t get another running back until Ronald Jones in the sixth round.
Tom Brady is his only quarterback, which shouldn’t be a huge issue but at his age you can’t rule out the possibility that he’ll suffer a dramatic decline. If that happens, Drew will need some good fortune on the waiver wire.
Mike Evans and Odell Beckham are both WR2s at best, in my opinion, but the good news is that Andrew has some depth at the position. Hopefully one of his receivers far exceeds his pre-season projection or he may as well kiss his playoff hopes goodbye.
According to FantasyPros, Andrew lost two rounds of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 16th round pick, Sterling Shepard*.
Draft Grade: D+
It is also Cory’s second year in a row with the second worst draft according to FootballGuys. It’s also the second year in a row that FootballGuys and FantasyPros strongly disagreed with each other on the quality of Cory’s draft.
He did make the playoffs last year, where he was immediately bounced, so it’s possible to bounce back from this. It will certainly be a little more challenging this year, however, given the lack of a third-round pick.
Cory probably had a feeling going into this draft that he’d be a severe disadvantage this year as he targeted JK Dobbins and Travis Etienne in the late rounds to stash on his IR in hopes that one of them will be an excellent keeper value next summer. It’s a strategy he’s employed in the past with players like Jordy Nelson in 2015 and Darrius Guice in 2018. It has yet to work for him, but maybe doubling his chances will finally give him the keeper value he’s been searching for in 2022.
As far as his roster makeup, he’s rolling with Dak Prescott as a 5th round pick this year, right where Cory took him in 2020. Wide receiver could be a serious concern for Cory unless one of his guys really hits. He ought to be strong at running back with four legit starters, but he can only use up to three of them a week so he may be pulling his hair out making coaching decisions with that corps all year.
According to FantasyPros, Cory lost one round of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 15th round pick, Tua Tagovailoa*.
Draft Grade: B-
William spent the final pick of the third round on his keeper, Russell Wilson. He received a D grade for that decision in Sunday’s keeper writeup and while he’s an excellent starting quarterback, it cost him value at some other positions. For example, Gus Edwards was taken 31st overall and William could have had him with his 85th overall pick.
His first two picks in the draft, Austin Ekeler and Najee Harris, are both back end RB1s or front end RB2s, and his depth behind them isn’t particularly exciting.
The good news for William is that in our league, having a good defense can be a difference-maker, and if the Pittsburgh Steelers can remain as good as they’ve been recently, they could potentially mask some of his team’s deficiencies, particular at wide receiver where he’ll need to keep an eye on the waiver wire.
According to FantasyPros, William lost one round of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 16th round pick, Rashaad Penny*.
Draft Grade: B
Will is going with two unproven guys at quarterback with Jalen Hurts and Zach Wilson. Hurts put up some solid points in his appearances last season, but the Eagles haven’t done a great job of expressing confidence in their young signal caller this camp. Wilson could be an excellent player, and everything coming out of camp has suggested he’s been lighting it up. But it’s still the Jets.
Will’s receiver corps is strong and his tight end group is a question mark with Goedert and Freiermuth. Running back could be an issue. Saquon Barkley has had some injury issues in his young career and will likely face a packed box every week this year like he did in his first two games of 2020 when he totaled 34 yards on 19 carries before suffering his season-ending injury. Behind Barkley, Raheem Mostert is often a boom-or-bust guy with Trey Sermon now breathing down his neck. That said, I like Will’s depth at the position so FootballGuys’ concerns may be just a bit overblown.
According to FantasyPros, Will lost five rounds of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 5th round pick, Myles Gaskin*.
Draft Grade: B
Stephen comes in right where he did in last year’s draft grade post, #6. FootballGuys begins its analysis, “our numbers show [this team] as being below average at all three core positions; and yet, somehow, we don’t hate it.”
Stephen has some interesting players on his team. Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford are both guys who could have poor seasons but odds are at least one of them will be a legit QB1.
At running back, Dalvin Cook was a fair choice as a first-round keeper, but the rest of his running back room is pretty terrible with Sony Michel, Michael Carter, and J.D. McKissic. The good news is he only has to start one running back in our league and he has plenty of receivers to fill his two receiver spots and both flex spots with Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and Brandon Aiyuk. Mark Andrews should be strong at the tight end position.
This team has a very wide range of possible outcomes and Stephen probably won’t be able to overcome any major hiccups, but if he can avoid those his estimated playoff chances could be a serious underestimation.
According to FantasyPros, Stephen lost seven rounds of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 16th round pick, Tevin Coleman*.
Draft Grade: B
Alex had a strong draft last year but ultimately missed the playoffs following his second straight 7-7 season. He’s hoping that the third time’s the charm as it was last year for Stephen April, who won the league title after missing the playoffs in his first two seasons in the AFL.
FantasyPros loves his quarterback and running back situations, which isn’t all that surprising. While Carson Wentz was an interesting late-round selection, he won’t need to play more than one game this season with Patrick Mahomes as Alex’s 5th round keeper. In the backfield, Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, and David Montgomery are all strong players and if anything should happen to swift, Alex has Jamaal Williams ready to step into a big role.
The biggest concerns for Alex are with his receivers and tight ends, where Adam Thielen, Will Fuller, Marvin Jones, and Mike Gesicki lead the way. All of them have had good stretches in the past, but not one of those players is ranked in the top 12 at their positions.
According to FantasyPros, Alex gained one round of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 11th round pick, Tony Pollard*.
Draft Grade: B
Alex’s playoff chances are almost double that of what he was given coming out of the 2020 AFL draft, his first in the league.
His running back depth is not very good, but he has one of the best running backs in the league in Alvin Kamara and that’s all he really needs. Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, and Keenan Allen will fill the receiver spots and a flex and chances are one of Alex’s flyers can fill the second flex position adequately.
I don’t love Alex’s tight ends, especially because he went so heavy at the position taking Fant, Gronk, and Hooper. Hopefully one will emerge as a reliable starter, but Alex could have had more depth at more important positions.
Justin Herbert isn’t a locked-and-loaded for-sure QB1, but I like him this year and the QB/WR hookup with him and Allen will be a fun one for Alex to watch.
According to FantasyPros, Alex lost six rounds of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 15th round pick, Austin Hooper*.
Draft Grade: B+
Evan had the 8th ranked draft in 2020 according to FootballGuys, though he has an identical draft score as last year on FantasyPros.
Coming off his first championship game appearance, Evan is hoping to go all the way this year. With the NFL’s defending MVP and his top receiver in Green Bay, Justin Jefferson as a 12th round keeper, Darren Waller, and Gus Edwards on his team, he’ll certainly have a chance to do just that.
FootballGuys doesn’t love his quarterback or running back situations, but they still say Evan “should have a contender here; but your margin for error in terms of in-season management could be thinner than some of your competitors’.”
According to FantasyPros, Evan lost six rounds of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 11th round pick, Alexander Mattison*.
Draft Grade: B+
We’ve noted many times in the past that Travis Kelce is a common player in championship lineups in our league. It’s probably why Cory was willing to handicap himself for this year’s draft by trading his third-round pick for him last year in an effort to push for the playoffs and a shot at a championship.
It didn’t work for Cory last year, but maybe it will this year for Anthony. With Josh Allen and Tyreek Hill on the team, plus the LA Rams defense, he’ll have a competitive team for sure.
Running back will be a concern, though. Josh Jacobs is not likely to be an RB1 and isn’t guaranteed to be an RB2. Kareem Hunt’s value with Nick Chubb in the lineup last year wasn’t nil, but he wasn’t nearly as valuable as he was while Chubb was hurt.
Anthony did keep an eye to the future by spending a late-round pick on Cam Akers, but Achilles injuries are tough to come back from, especially for a running back, so there’s no telling whether that investment will be worthwhile.
According to FantasyPros, Anthony lost four rounds of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 12th round pick, David Johnson*.
Draft Grade: B+
FantasyPros absolutely hates Brandon’s draft. They have more than half of his picks listed as reaches! FootballGuys, on the other hand, really likes Brandon’s team.
While he has zero depth at the position, Brandon’s running back room of Christian McCaffrey and Antonio Gibson will absolutely light our league up if they can both stay healthy this season.
Kyle Pitts is expected to be a strong tight end, but as a rookie it’s impossible to predict what his value will actually be this season. Receiver is a problem behind Allen Robinson. Quarterback is also going to be an interesting position for Brandon to figure out, with Ryan Tannehill, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields all on the roster.
This will be a very bizarre team to manage and I can’t wait to see how Brandon pulls it off. In eight seasons in the AFL, Brandon has never finished with a worse winning percentage than the prior year. Last year he went 9-5, so he’ll be looking to keep that streak by winning 10 or more this year.
According to FantasyPros, Brandon lost 12 rounds of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 10th round pick, Jonnu Smith*.
Draft Grade: A-
Sean is loving the color purple in his backfield with Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins as his two quarterbacks. I love the running back room of Ezekiel Elliott, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, James Robinson, Damien Harris, and Chase Edmonds.
Wide receiver is a bit more questionable, but still strong with DeAndre Hopkins and CeeDee Lamb leading the way and Ja’Marr Chase has the potential to break out at some point this year.
FantasyPros gave Sean the highest draft grade in the league in fact that they could give. I have to say I lean more toward FootballGuys’ assessment, giving him the #2 draft grade, because of his decisions at tight end, which Eric pointed out post draft, so I’ll just use his words below:
“[Sean] took Damien Harris as his 4th running back in the late 4th round ahead of Kyle Pitts. He later took Chase Edmonds as his 5th running back in the late 6th round ahead of Noah Fant.” Instead, Sean wounds up with Hunter Henry and Evan Engram, who FootballGuys describe as “two good backups.”
According to FantasyPros, Sean did not gain or lose any rounds of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 13th round pick, Evan Engram*. Go figure.
Draft Grade: A
In this league, putting together a draft that gives you this kind of praise from FootballGuys is impressive. Last year, Eric was given the best draft grade with a 67% playoff chance. In 2019, Sean was given the best grade with a 54.4% playoff chance.
Kyler Murray and Jameis Winston are an excellent quarterback duo. Winston will have to face a potentially strong Bills defense in Murray’s bye week, but Winston can be electric against any defense.
Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Miles Sanders are a great 1-2-3 punch at running back.
If Eric has a weakness it’s at the receiver positions. Robert Woods, Julio Jones, and Tyler Boyd are all good receivers, but it’s tough to predict how good they’ll be for fantasy purposes in 2021. And at tight end, Logan Thomas was a great surprise TE1 last year and is expected to run it back this year, but that’s certainly no guarantee.
Ultimately, I don’t think those potential weaknesses will turn out to be legitimate issues. Eric’s #1 draft grade in 2020 didn’t work out in his favor. I don’t expect that to repeat itself this year.
According to FantasyPros, Eric lost two rounds of value when counting up his steals and reaches. His best value pick according to the site was his 5th round pick, Kyler Murray*.
Draft Grade: A+
*Note that FantasyPros did not take keepers and their rounds into consideration for reaches or steals, so some of our managers may have gained or lost more rounds of value than stated. The players listed as the best values are strictly those who were selected as redraft players in this year’s draft.