Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 27, 2021
I’m already late with this week’s recap because of work obligations and I don’t want to be running up on the start of Week 8 and tomorrow’s Thursday Night Football game between Green Bay and Arizona, so I’ll try to keep this a little more brief than usual.
We fixed our coaching issues, if only for a week. Our 12 managers took 14 combined coaching risks and were successful on eight of them. On those, our managers wound up netting a total of 38.16 points in their favor. In our previous six weeks we’d had only one positive coaching week and our net gain that week was less than two points.
Through seven weeks, we’re still running a 175-point deficit on just a .375 success rate, but with some more success like this week’s we can certainly eat into that a bit.
In total, our teams scored 1,408.60 points this week, down from the past two weeks but still the 23rd highest scoring week in AFL history.
While we’ve certainly seen plenty of lucky wins and unlucky losses this season, as we approach and get set to pass the midpoint of our regular season, luck hasn’t been too severe in our league on the whole.
By Top 6 performances, we have four teams with one more win than expected, four with one fewer win, and four with exactly as many wins as they should have.
By breakdown, Eric Meyer and Alex Mayo have been the luckiest managers at 0.9 wins above expected, which isn’t an overwhelming amount of good fortune. Andrew Perez sits at 1.2 wins below expected, but nobody else is even approaching a full game’s worth of bad luck by that metric.
The game of the week wasn’t a particularly exciting one. Alex did finish as the league’s #6 scorer but Stephen finished dead last in scoring with just 92 points. Stephen wouldn’t even have benefited from plugging in the week’s #3 quarterback, Joe Burrow, into his lineup because he started the week’s #2 quarterback, Matthew Stafford.
This was Alex’s second career Peyton Manning Award and he improves to 2-2 in game of the week appearances. Stephen is now 4-5 in his chances to take home the PFM Award.
By reaching triple digits this week, Alex set a new career long with a 7-game 100-point streak!
Stephen still leads the league in defensive scoring since the start of the season with 107.18 points and Alex still leads in kicker scoring with 80.7 points.
At this point in the season, Alex is being given the best odds to make the playoffs by PlayoffComputer.com at 65.8%, with a 55.5% chance to win the AFL East.
This would’ve been a much better game of the week; maybe too good of one if you ask Will. For the fourth time in league history we saw a loss by the week’s #2 scorer.
Sean led the way with 144.52 points, which ranks 90th in league history. Will’s 141.10 points aren’t in the Top 100 but they do replace Eric’s score from last week as the third highest point total in a loss.
Will had a Top 5 scorer at each offensive position and Sean only had two total Top 5 position players, but that didn’t matter in the end.
According to FleaFlicker projections, Will coached himself out of the win. He cut Chase McLaughlin last week and added Jake Elliott to start in his place at kicker. McLaughlin had the higher projection and wound up outscoring Elliott by 4.3 points, more than Will’s 3.42-point margin of defeat. For that, Will is our Hue Jackson Award winner for Week 7.
While those extra 4.3 points would not have been enough to overcome his deficit up to 11th place in our kicker standings for the season, they did keep Will under 30 points from the position for the season. He’s averaged fewer than 4 points per week from his kickers.
With his Tom Brady Award this week, Sean now has 10 in his career which, incidentally, ties him with Will for the fourth most in AFL history.
On the topic of relatively poor coaching, Anthony did cost his team a league-high 9 points this week by failing on two of three coaching risks. He added Chris Blewitt to his bench this week and started Mason Crosby, but if he was going to add a kicker, FleaFlicker’s recommendation was Joey Slye and he should have started over Crosby.
That decision cost Anthony 2.7 points and then he lost another 14.84 points by adding D’Ernest Johnson but then forgetting to plug him into his lineup on Thursday night. Johnson was the week’s #2 running back using our scoring settings, but lucky for Ant the guy FleaFlicker would have benched, Corey Davis, still had a solid game so that only cost Anthony 14.84 coaching points.
Ant’s one saving grace on the coaching front was his quarterback risk, adding and starting Mac Jones instead of Teddy Bridgewater, which earned him 8.54 points.
There wasn’t much more to note about this game. Anthony was the only manager in the AFL without a single player at any position finishing in the Top 5 at their position, including kickers and defenses. But that didn’t matter as Brandon failed to score 100 points for the sixth time this season.
When the worst coach of the week only costs his team 9 points, you know you’re set up for a pretty strong coaching week across the league. Alex was the biggest contributor to the strength of our league’s coaching in Week 7.
Alex earned his team a league-high 38.86 points with two successful coaching risks. His biggest haul came from the decision to add and start C.J. Uzomah at tight end instead of O.J. Howard. Uzomah outscored Howard by 21.9 points! He also ignored FleaFlicker’s suggestion that the Seahawks defense was the best option on the waiver wire and instead went for the Giants, who outscored the Seahawks by 14.96 points.
Those 38.86 points flipped the result of Alex’s game and earned him the victory. Andrew made a pretty bad mistake, failing to check his lineup until 1:01pm on Sunday, one minute after two players locked into his starting lineup with ‘OUT’ designations. He’d be kicking himself much more if the players he could have plugged in for them would have made a difference in the outcome, but they wouldn’t have.
Uzomah has been fantastic for the Bengals of late and his latest performance of 22.9 points ranks 63rd in AFL history among starting tight ends.
The Giants 22.98 points were the highest by a starting defensive unit in our league and earn Alex defensive coach of the week honors, as well. It truly was a terrific coaching week for the third-year player who is seeking his first career trip to the playoffs. He’s in a tough division and we’re seeing a great deal of parity across the league right now, but at 4-3 he’s right in the thick of the playoff hunt.
It’s hard to believe that anybody has a career winning record against Eric considering the success he’s had in our league, but William is three games above .500 against him, now.
Though his haul wasn’t quite as much as Alex’s, William also earned his victory thanks to some great coaching decisions. He took three coaching risks and was successful on all three, earning 17.06 points.
Like Alex he ignored FleaFlicker’s advice to pick up the Seahawks and instead pulled the Bengals off waivers, and they outscored Seattle by 8.08 points. He earned another 5.48 points by starting Kenyan Drake instead of Van Jefferson, who he cut early in the week. And finally, instead of adding Jason Myers at kicker, he added Daniel Carlson who outscored Myers by 3.5 points.
William, like his brother, got a bit lucky with his win this week. But if anybody deserved a win as a Bottom 6 scorer, it was William who had previously suffered two losses as a Top 6 scorer!
Eric did manage to reach triple digits by the end of the week so he just barely, by less than a point, kept his 100-point game streak alive. It now stands at 11 straight with Sean right behind him also in the double digits.
While Cory’s loss wasn’t quite as devastating as Will’s was, this was also a game that featured two Top 6 scorers for the week.
Cory had the #1 quarterback of the week, Tua Tagovailoa, and the top kicker, Nick Folk. Evan, though, had the #1 wide receiver, Cooper Kupp, whose 32.6 points rank 52nd in AFL history among wide receivers.
Honestly, there isn’t much more to say about this game so we’ll move on.
This terrible team was better than yours
The following lineup of players who are not on any roster in our league, all of whom are available in three quarters of Fleaflickers leagues, would have beaten all but our top three scorers this week [it’s getting harder every week as almost all the talent gets snatched up to our rosters]:
QB – Case Keenum, Cle (17% owned) 14.96
RB – Brandon Bolden (22% owned) 16.54
WR – Kalif Raymond, Det (26% owned) 14.72
WR – Dante Pettis, NYG (9% owned) 12.26
TE – Foster Moreau, LV (9% owned) 14.60
FLEX – J.J. Taylor, NE (10% owned) 16.38
FLEX – Boston Scott, Phi (17% owned) 10.14
K – Austin Seibert, Det (3% owned) 16.60
DEF – Houston Texans (7% owned) 15.16
Team Total: 131.36 vs Sean Kennedy [144.52]
Here is the recap of Week 7 and this week’s power rankings:
Game of the Week: Alex Mayo at Stephen April
Despite losing a player during pre-game warmups on Thursday night and Nyheim Hines being a complete non-factor, Alex managed to finish as the #6 scorer of the week and win his matchup handily as Stephen was the league’s lowest scorer for the first time since Week 12 of the 2020 season.