Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 19, 2021
The stars did not align this week, though we did see some exceptional performances around the AFL.
One area in which our managers were decidedly not exceptional was coaching, a theme we’ve seen throughout this season.
Week 6 saw the highest number of coaching risks so far this year as our 12 managers combined to take 16 of them. Only five of those risks were successful, but none enough so to keep us from our second worse coaching week of the season in terms of points we’ve missed. In all, we cost ourselves 61.20 points and two of our managers cost their teams victories this week.
On the season, we’ve now taken 66 coaching risks with a .333 success rate and have cost ourselves 213.52 points. From those coaching risks, our 12 managers have cost themselves seven wins and only earned two.
While we did see a dip in scoring this week, that was to be expected after the record-setting performances we saw in Week 5. We still scored 1,418.62 points this week which ranks 20th among the 116 regular season weeks we’ve played in the AFL.
This week, we add our seventh and final metric to our power ranking formula – recency. Rather than write it all out, I’ll simply give you the formula:
Recency = (4W+((L5)+(1.1xL3)-(2.1xLA)))/10
W = wins in the last five games
L5 = average score in the last five games
L3 = average score in the last three games
LA = league average score for the season so far
In general, a recency score of 3 is considered very good and a score of -3 is considered very bad. Last year when we first introduced this metric to the power ranking formula, our gap between the worst and best recency scores was 7.8. This year, it’s 12.6! Will Massimini has a recency score of -4.6, which is bad but certainly not the worst we’ve ever seen. Sean Kennedy, though, has a recency score of 8.0, which is astronomical!
A week after setting the record for scoring, Sean had another outstanding week. Not only did he win the game of the week for his 6th career Peyton Manning Award, he was less than 3.5 points away from having the 25th double award week in AFL history!
With the game of the week victory, Sean improves to 6-8 in his career in these matchups. Meanwhile, Alex was playing in his fifth career game of the week and is now 0-5. He’s the only manager in AFL history to play in more than three game of the week without earning a win.
Sean would have more than made up those points he needed to get the Tom Brady Award if he had taken a ballsy (or stupid) coaching risk by starting Kirk Cousins instead of Lamar Jackson. Cousins was the #3 quarterback of the week with 30.42 points while sitting on Sean’s bench.
Still, Sean did have a remarkable week. His 156.20 points rank 40th in AFL history and a big contributor was Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb, who scored 32.52, the 52nd most points any receiver has scored in an AFL game.
Sean also won all three coaching awards this week. He was the defensive coach of the week thanks to the Arizona Cardinals defense and their 21.46-point effort. The Cardinals kicker, Matt Prater, scored 16.0 points, the most of any starting kicker in the AFL this week.
Sean also earn recognition as the overall coach of the week. He earned a league-high 7.90 points with his one successful coaching risk, which was starting Lamb at FLEX over Kansas City running back Darrel Williams, who also had a terrific game and finished just outside the top five running backs for the week.
Alex was also a Top 5 scorer this week, making this an unlucky loss for the third-year manager. In fact, it’s his second straight unlucky loss. And it gets worse; with 135.44 points, Alex now has the 8th highest losing score in AFL history. He and Sean combined to put up 291.64 points, making this the 9th highest scoring game in league history.
Alex actually had more Top 5 individual performances than Sean did this week, with three Top 5 offensive players to Sean’s one plus a top five defense. But that #1 receiver performance from Lamb and the top kicker and top defense were enough for Sean to pull out the victory.
The man who kept Sean from stealing all of the league’s thunder in Week 6 was Anthony, who led the way with 159.44 points, the #26 single-week team score in league history.
Anthony is now the first manager to win two Tom Brady Awards this season. Additionally, it is the 18th time in his career that he has led the league in scoring, which breaks a tie with Eric for the most all-time.
What’s sort of amazing is that Anthony’s team did this without a lot of notable performances. Sure, he had his share of Top 5 performers with Josh Allen, Jaylen Waddle, Travis Kelce and the LA Rams defense. But nobody on his team posted a Top 100 all-time performance at their position.
Stephen, meanwhile, suffered his second straight loss after starting the year 4-0. He still leads the league in defensive scoring, but a rough outing for the Bills on Monday night will force him to wait at least another week to crack the 100-point threshold for the season.
Maybe it’s time to stop shaming fantasy owners for “being greedy.” Yeah, I’m going first person this week because all Sunday afternoon I had to hear Eric give me grief for wanting more points from my players and being nervous that he might come back.
Well, I escaped this week but by the skin of my teeth because with a 42-point lead heading into Monday night, who do you think Eric had? King freaking Henry. Sure, he was facing a Bills defense that ranked #1 in DVOA against the pass and, if I remember correctly, Top 3 in DVOA against the run entering Week 6, but again… it’s King freaking Henry.
And sure enough, Derrick Henry went off for 36.70 points, more than 14 of which came on his fifth touch of the game. That point total ties him for the 38th best game by a starting running back in league history.
It also boosted Eric’s score to 140.20, which is the third highest losing score in AFL history. My score of 145.60 ranks #88 all-time for our league.
Eric extended his 100-point game streak to an even 10 games and Sean continues to trail just behind him with his nine-game streak. But I’m sure he’d prefer to have his undefeated record intact. Instead, he suffered the unluckiest loss of the week.
Eric is still the luckiest manager in the AFL using our breakdown metric at 1.1 wins above expected. But he drops from two lucky wins on the season into a five-way tie at one net lucky victory.
PlayoffComputer still gives Eric the best odds to make the playoffs and to win his division, at 74.6% and 59.2%, respectively.
William has had a lot of bad luck this year with two unlucky losses already. This week he just snuck into the top half of the league in scoring and got his second win of the season.
One of three managers without a Top 5 starter at any offensive position, William did have a kicker and a defense in the Top 5 at their positions to help him secure the victory.
William did get just a little lucky, however. Specifically, he was lucky to be playing the week’s worst coach.
Evan took two coaching risks this week and failed on both. He added Brandon McManus to replace the injured Rodrigo Blankenship, but Jason Myers was Fleaflicker’s recommended kicker addition based on projections. That decision cost Evan 5.10 points. The bigger fail was Evan’s decision to start Alexander Mattison, despite Dalvin Cook being healthy, instead of Khalil Herbert. That one cost him 20.72 points, by itself well more than his 17.04-point margin of defeat.
In all, Evan cost his team a league-high 25.82 points from his two coaching failures.
Normally when a manager costs his team the most points in the league and costs his team a win, we don’t have an honorable mention for the Hue Jackson Award. This week, though, we did have a second manager cost his team a win due to coaching.
Brandon only cost his team 14.30 points, but he lost by 12.52 points so he lost his game because of them. The worse of the two was his decision to spend $10 of FAAB to pick up Evan Engram at tight end instead of Fleaflicker’s suggestion of Rickey Seals-Jones, who Eric picked up later in the week. That decision cost Brandon 9.5 points. The other 4.8 points came from his decision to start Allen Robinson instead of Tim Patrick.
Brandon, like William, had no offensive starters in the Top 5 at their positions. Also like William, Brandon had a Top 5 kicker and a Top 5 defense. It just wasn’t enough to overcome his coaching mistakes to give him a second straight win.
Alex got his second straight lucky win and he’s now +1 in the luck category after losing in Week 1 as a Top 6 scorer.
Still, at 4-2, Alex is tied atop his division with Stephen and the two both have a 53% chance to make the playoffs and a 41.2% chance to win the AFL East according to PlayoffComputer.
Alex remains the league leader in scoring from the kicker position as he’s now up to 69.2 points.
In the lowest-scoring game of the week, and in fact of the year, Andrew ended his winless streak. We no longer have any winless or undefeated teams so… parity!
Andrew was the other manager without a Top 5 offensive starter this week, though he did have a Top 5 kicker. It didn’t matter, though, as he got the victory despite his 2-9 breakdown for the week. This was the second time this season a manager has won a game with fewer than 100 points.
Andrew remains the worst defensive coach this season with just 29.48 points and Will remains the worst kicker coach this season with 25.7 points.
The only other noteworthy thing about this game was that Will’s point total of 67.04 points was the 10th lowest score since our league expanded from eight starting roster spots to nine in 2016.
This terrible team was better than yours
The following lineup of players who are not on any roster in our league, all of whom are available in half or more of FleaFlicker leagues, would have had the highest score in the AFL this week, except for our Tom Brady Award winner and our #2 scorer:
QB – Teddy Bridgewater (47% owned) 20.70
RB – Chris Evans, Cin (21% owned) 14.08
WR – Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cle (19% owned) 24.50
WR – K.J. Osborn, Min (29% owned) 16.40
TE – O.J. Howard, TB (21% owned) 13.50
FLEX – Kendrick Bourne, NE (21% owned) 14.10
FLEX – Demarcus Robinson, KC (11% owned) 12.40
K – Matthew Wright, Jac (1% owned) 16.70
DEF – Las Vegas Raiders (13% owned) 18.10
Team Total: 150.48 vs Anthony Battle [159.44]
Here is the recap of Week 6 and this week’s power rankings:
Game of the Week: Sean Kennedy at Alex Kincaid
The game of the week came down to who didn’t show up rather than who did. Alex had three players finish with less than 10 points. Sean, meanwhile, had just one player finish below that mark, which made up for sub-standard games from Lamar Jackson and Ezekiel Elliott, who had combined to lead his team in scoring in four of the first five games of the season.