Written by Cory Puffett
Published October 5, 2021
Week 4 saw a mild rebound in our league’s scoring. In our 114th regular season week played, our 12 managers totaled 1,379.24 points, good for the 28th highest scoring week in league history.
Coaching continues to be a major issue in our league. After going 2-for-9 on coaching risks last week, the ratio dropped to 2-for-10 in Week 4 with our managers suffering a net loss of 42.94 points. This brings our league’s season-long success rate down to .316 and bumps us up to 149.80 points missed.
This was also the third time this season we’ve had two lucky winners and two unlucky losers. Scheduling luck is always a factor in fantasy football but we’ve had some real doozies this season already. As frustrating as some of these loses have been, it certainly does add to the excitement.
Last week we had two game decided by less than one point. Anybody outside our league who follows these posts might notice that a certain team is 4-0 today after being listed as 2-1 a week ago.
Stephen April initially lost his game against Alex Kincaid but a league rule passed this offseason wound up flipping the result. Rondale Moore was in Stephen’s lineup and was charged a fumble on a punt return. Since we do not give position players any points for special teams involvement (punt or kick return yards or touchdowns), we decided this offseason that it doesn’t make sense for them to be penalized for fumbles on those plays. Instead, those fumbles now get charged to the team defense/special teams units.
Because of this, Stephen earned one point and wound up beating Alex, while Sean lost a point from the Arizona Cardinals defense and lost to Evan by 41.36 points.
This week we saw our league’s 24th occurrence of a victory by one point or less. It is the first time we’ve had two such weeks in a row, or even two in the same season, since 2017.
Not only was it the second week in a row that we had at least one game decided by less than a point, it was the second week in a row a game that close was featured as our game of the week.
Eric entered this week 3-0 and Will was 2-1. They were the only managers averaging less than 100 point per week scored against them. Despite their final score of 111.48 to 111.08, their opponents are still averaging fewer than 100 points per week.
Barring a stat correction, Will pulled this one out to win his seventh career Peyton Manning Award, improving to 7-6 in game of the week appearances. This was Eric’s 26th time playing in a game of the week and his record drops to 18-8.
It was a lucky win for Will; he finished seventh in the league in scoring this week. He is now 1.5 wins above expected by breakdown and 2 wins above expected by Top 6 scoring weeks, making him the second luckiest manager in the league so far.
While he’d certainly prefer a victory, and is hoping for some of Stephen’s good fortune, Eric can at least be glad that his league-leading 100-point game streak extended to eight games this week.
For his part, Will made this game much closer than it needed to be. He is the Hue Jackson Award winner for Week 4 after costing his team a league-high 40.36 points by failing on three coaching risks. He lost 11.4 points by starting Pat Freiermuth at TE instead of Dallas Goedert, a risk that would have paid off last week but certainly did not this week. He lost another 16.16 points by starting Myles Gaskin at FLEX instead of Marquise Brown; Gaskin received just two touches for three yards on Sunday against the Colts. And finally, by spending $4 of FAAB to add Daniel Carlson and drop Ryan Succop, who was projected for more than Carlson was, he missed out on 12.8 points.
Eric and Will currently have two of the three highest chances of making the playoffs in our league according to PlayoffComputer at 58.4% and 50.8%, respectively.
Moving from a close, low-scoring game to a nearly-as-close, high-scoring game, we find our Week 4 Tom Brady Award winner. Alex Mayo joined the AFL just last year, but even with a few single-year members in our league’s history he was the only manager in AFL history to never lead the league in scoring.
We can’t say that anymore. A week after winning his first career Peyton Manning Award, Alex clinched his first career Tom Brady Award, less than a point ahead of our second highest scorer and in a game decided by less than two points.
Alex is 2-2 now this season with his two victories coming by a combined margin of just 2.32 points!
For Alex’s part, he did everything he needed to to win this game, literally! Alex put together the first perfect lineup in our league this season. William could have flipped the script, though, if he had taken a big coaching risk and started Matt Ryan instead of Russell Wilson.
I don’t know what crazy person would have made that recommendation, but as it turned out Ryan was the #5 quarterback in the league this week with our scoring settings, putting up 31.02 points on William’s Bench, putting up 8 more points than Wilson.
As it stands, William was the unluckiest manager this week. He had the third most points in the AFL. It’s his second loss as a Top 6 scorer this season and by breakdown he is at 1.5 wins below expected, making him the unluckiest manager not only this week but on the season.
Alex is this week’s kicker coach of the week after he earned a league-high 16.3 points from Buffalo Bills kicker Tyler Bass.
The Buffalo Bills were full of fantasy contributors this week, perhaps none more than their team defense, which made Stephen the defensive coach of the week after they earned him a league-high 21.32 points.
Stephen and Brandon were the only two managers in the league without a single Top 5 offensive starter in their lineups, but Stephen had not only the top scoring starting defense but a Top 5 kicker in Matt Gay of the LA Rams. Stephen continues to pace the league in defensive scoring with 72.64 points coming from the roster spot, more than 20 points ahead of our second-best defensive manager.
Brandon has now gone four games in a row without 100 points to begin this season, making this his longest drought in league history, controlling for roster sizes in our early years. His four-game drought is tied for the sixth longest in league history. Another game with fewer than 100 points this week would tie him for our league’s third longest drought.
Stephen was the number six scorer in the league this week, barely avoiding making this his third lucky win of the season. He’s already got two of those and is at 1.9 wins above expected by breakdown. He is our luckiest manager of the season thus far.
With a 4-0 record, Stephen has the best odds of any manager in the league of making the playoffs according to PlayoffComputer at 72.3%.
Where Stephen has Will beat by a small margin in terms of scheduling luck, if there’s anybody who comes close to William Battle’s bad luck this season it’s been Andrew who sits at 1.4 wins below expected.
There was nothing unlucky about this week’s loss by Andrew as he finished with the second lowest score in the league, the only other manager besides Brendan to finish with less than 100 points.
It was a lucky win for Cory, though. Cory’s 104.72 points were the third lowest total in the AFL this week.
Cory could have extended his victory by a small margin, but he left the #4 tight end performance of the week on his bench, with Jared Cook finally having an impact performance for the Chargers on Monday night.
Andrew did have one bright spot in his lineup this week. Deebo Samuel had a huge game for the 49ers, scoring 31.02 points, good for the 80th spot on our all-time single game wide receiver leaderboard.
Andrew has had a strong season at the kicker position. He’s earned 52.2 points from the position. Unfortunately, he’s negated that advantage with severe struggles at defense. Through four weeks he has just 13.6 points from his defensive units, more than 20 point behind the #11 ranked defensive manager in our league.
While his failure hasn’t been quite as pronounced as Andrew’s defensive struggles, Anthony currently trails the rest of his league-mates in kicker scoring with just 16.6 points through four weeks.
Anthony had a huge week from Tyreek Hill. The Kansas City wide receiver put up 42.2 points on Sunday, the #7 all-time performance by a wide receiver in AFL history. It didn’t matter, though, as Anthony wound up suffering an unlucky loss as the league’s fifth highest scorer.
Sean had a more balanced scoring output from his starters and wound up winning this matchup largely on the strength of his coaching. Sean earned a league-high 19.86 points and his win with one successful coaching risk, starting James Robinson at FLEX instead of Marvin Jones.
James Robinson was a big free agent pickup for Alex early last season and Alex sent Marvin Jones over to Sean earlier this season for Juwan Johnson, who Alex promptly dropped last week. He may finally have solved his tight end woes, though, after a solid game from Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz this week.
Alex also had the other half of the QB/WR combo Anthony benefited from this week. Patrick Mahomes was our league’s top quarterback with 35.62 points, the #58 single-game performance by a quarterback in AFL history.
Evan lost by a comfortable margin, but he didn’t do himself any favors leaving a pair of top positional scorers on his bench. The #4 defense for the week was the LA Chargers but their 15.08 points did Evan no good on his bench.
Additionally, Evan left Cordarrelle Patterson on the bench and he scored 32.72 points, which was the #1 running back performance and the #2 wide receiver performance (Patterson has dual-eligibility). If he had taken a coaching risk this week by sitting Mike Williams for Patterson, he would have won this game on that move alone.
This terrible team was better than yours
The following lineup of players who are not on any roster in our league, all of whom are available in three-quarters or ore of FleaFlicker leagues, would have had the highest score in the AFL this week, even ahead of our Tom Brady Award winner:
QB – Taysom Hill, NO (21% owned) 18.72
RB – Alex Collins, Sea (9% owned) 16.20
WR – Randall Cobb, GB (24% owned) 21.90
WR – Kalif Raymond, Det (9% owned) 17.90
TE – Mo Alie-Cox, Ind (9% owned) 18.00
FLEX – John Ross, NYG (7% owned) 14.50
FLEX – James Proche, Bal (2% owned) 9.40
K – Matt Ammendola, NYJ (2% owned) 9.00
DEF – New York Jets (5% owned) 14.08
Team Total: 139.70 vs Alex Mayo [135.30]
Here is the recap of Week 4 and this week’s power rankings:
Game of the Week: Will Massimini at Eric Meyer
For a second week in a row we’ve got a game of the week that was decided by less than a point! In fact, it truly came down to the wire with Will trailing Eric by less than two points entering Monday night with only Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson left to go. The Raiders scored two touchdowns, Carlson nailed both PATs, and that was that… barring a stat correction.