Written by Cory Puffett
Published December 22, 2021
Following one of the worst weeks for fantasy scoring we’ve ever seen, our regular season has reached its conclusion and the 2021 playoff field is set!
We had two de facto division title games, both of which ultimately resulted in the losing managers being eliminated from the playoffs.
The great news in our league is that it doesn’t matter where you finished. I’ll discuss that and the two upcoming playoff games at the end of this writeup.
As I mentioned, this was a very low scoring week. Not only did we have no Top 100 team scores in our league’s history, our league total of 1,200.02 points was our third lowest total since starting lineups expanded from eight to nine players in 2016.
The two weeks, out of 85 in that span, that saw lower league-wide scores were Week 10 of last season when we saw 1,182.7 points and Week 14, the final week, of the 2016 season when we totaled just 1,098.1 points.
This week, our managers took a total of 13 coaching risks and were successful on five of them for a net loss of 14.56 points across the league.
Following the AFL Championship game, we will cover notable stats from the season as a whole, including coaching for the league and the best and worst coaches for the season.
Anthony finished the 2021 regular season the same way he began it, by leading the league in scoring.
He joined Evan as the second manager to claim a third Tom Brady Award this season. This also marks Anthony’s 19th career Tom Brady Award, two more than any other AFL manager has in their career.
Though Anthony’s team score was rather low for a Tom Brady Award winner, he did have some outstanding performance, none more impressive than Travis Kelce. Aided by extra time, Kelce scored 35.6 points, the 4th highest score by a starting tight end in AFL history!
Despite finishing with the second lowest point total for the week, Eric did have a couple bright spots. He is the defensive coach of the week thanks to a 24.52-point outing by the Indianapolis Colts.
Eric is also the coach of the week after earning a league-high 7.44 points on his only coaching risk. FleaFlicker projections recommended that Rhamondre Stevenson should have been started at FLEX in Eric’s lineup this week, but he instead went with AJ Dillon.
It wasn’t nearly enough to make the de facto AFL Central title game exciting, but Eric’s decision to start Dillon made a better coaching performance vs FleaFlicker suggestions than anybody else in the AFL had this week.
Evan finished less than a point behind Anthony in scoring this week, just 0.2 points shy of a fourth Tom Brady Award in 2021.
Instead, Evan will settle for a league-best third Peyton Manning Award of 2021 and the 15th of his career. Evan is now 15-11 in game of the week appearances over his AFL career while Cory falls to 12-11 in his appearances.
Cory cost himself the AFL West title thanks to a bad coaching mistake. He cost himself 14.62 points and the win by failing on his only coaching risk, starting Darrell Henderson at FLEX instead of D’Onta Foreman.
Though a different manager, who we’ll get to soon enough, wound up earning the Hue Jackson Award, this is about as brutal of a coaching error as it gets when you consider the gravity of the game Cory cost himself.
Foreman’s 18.64 points were the 4th highest total among running backs this week. Evan, though, left the 3rd highest RB total on his bench, with Jeff Wilson going off for 21.52 this week.
That won’t make Cory feel much better, though, considering the top running back total of the week, Duke Johnson’s 30.24 points, could have been his. He picked up Johnson earlier in the week but after Miami’s top two running backs, including Myles Gaskin, tested out of COVID protocols, Cory dropped him.
Still, Cory wound up with the 4th highest score in the AFL this week, one of just five managers to crack triple digits, giving him an unlucky loss.
With Andrew Perez and William Battle both failing to reach triple digits this week, Evan takes over with the longest active 100-point game streak. He’s done it in five straight regular season games. Cory is right behind him with a four-game streak of his own.
Alex Kincaid had been slumping recently with two straight weeks under 100 points, but he righted the ship this week to get his league-best 10th win.
He’ll enter the playoffs as the #1 seed in the AFL and will attempt to do what Stephen April did last year – win the AFL title in his third year as a league member.
Alex Mayo didn’t quite reach triple digits this week, but he was still the league’s #6 scorer, so he joins Cory with an unlucky loss in the season’s final week.
In fact, with this unlucky loss and a lucky win by William Battle this week, Alex finishes the season as the unluckiest manager, both by breakdown (1.4 wins below expected) and by Top 6 performances (3 wins below expected).
FleaFlicker couldn’t figure out what to make of this matchup as it came down to the wire on Tuesday night. The app’s win probability feature kept switching radically from one to the other’s favor.
Ultimately, Stephen held on. A loss would have given Cory the AFL wild card, but instead Stephen finishes in a three-way tie for the second-best record in the league and will return to the playoffs to try and defend his 2020 league title.
For the second week in a row, we saw two tight ends record Top 100 scores on the positional leaderboard, and for the second week in a row Mark Andrews was one of those tight ends.
Andrews went off, even with Lamar Jackson sidelined, for 31.6 points, the 11th highest tight end score in league history.
Andrew had a rough coaching week and managed to outdo Cory for the Hue Jackson Award, costing his team a league-high 15.68 points and the win by failing on both of his coaching risks.
He missed out on 5.48 points by starting Van Jefferson at FLEX instead of Zach Ertz. That switch alone would have been enough to flip the outcoming of his game, pending a stat correction. But he also cost his team 10.2 points by starting Michael Gallup at WR instead of DeVante Parker.
To add injury to insult, Andrew also left the week’s #5 running back performer on his bench in the form of Devin Singletary and his 18.14 points.
Stephen is this week’s kicker coach of the week thanks to LA Rams kicker Matt Gay scoring 11 in Tuesday night’s victory. Gay was actually only the #8 scorer at the position this week, but six of the kickers ahead of him were not rostered in the AFL and one was on William Battle’s bench.
Stephen finished #7 in scoring and finishes the 2021 regular season as the luckiest manager in the AFL at 1.1 wins above expected by breakdown and tied with Andrew at 2 wins above expected by Top 6 performances.
Once 7-3, Sean finishes the 2021 season on a five-game losing streak.
Will just managed to crack the 100-point threshold this week. Outside of that, the most notable stats from this game aren’t really ones you want to be remembered for.
Sean left the #3 tight end (Hunter Henry scored 23.3 points) and the #4 wide receiver (Gabriel Davis scored 23 points) on his bench.
Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling scored 18.8 points and was the #5 receiver for the week but was on Will’s bench.
Not that anybody would have suggested it, but Sean also could have picked up Tyler Huntley for his usual starter, Lamar Jackson.
Like Duke Johnson, Huntley was the top scorer at his position but was not rostered in the AFL. Unlike Johnson, Huntley didn’t score 30 points. He scored 41.26 points!!
This was not just Sean’s fifth straight loss to end the regular season. It was also his fifth straight game with fewer than 100 points. He is one game shy of his career-worst stretch and is tied for the fourth longest streak without 100 points in league history.
After sitting at 3 wins below expected by Top 6 performances for several weeks, William finally got a lucky win this week. That’s two lucky wins to counteract four unlucky losses this season.
William did leave the #5 kicker performance on his bench this week. Daniel Carlson scored 12.8 points but couldn’t contribute them to William’s win.
Brandon finishes the year 3-12, three games behind any other AFL manager and by far the worst year of his AFL career. In fact, that loss total is more than his losses in the past two years combined!
He only scored 100 points three times all season and has failed to do so in six straight games now, setting a new personal worst and tying the longest streak in AFL history.
The other two managers to go six straight regular season games without 100 points were Sean Kennedy from Week 6 to Week 11 of the 2019 season and Stephen April from Week 7 to Week 12 of the 2019 season.
To be fair, there were managers with stretches like that prior to 2016, but for those years we use 88.9 points as the threshold to make up for only 8 starting roster spots (11.1% fewer than we have now).
Brandon now turns his attention to trying to win one of the next two games, to avoid the Sacko, and to drafting better next year to try and avoid extending that streak without 100 points in the opening week of the 2022 season.
This terrible team was better than yours
The following lineup of players who are not on any roster in our league, all of whom are available in more than 85% of FleaFlicker leagues, would have beaten all of our teams this week, including our Tom Brady Award winner:
QB – Tyler Huntley, Bal (14% owned) 41.26
RB – Duke Johnson, Mia (13% owned) 30.24
WR – Jauan Jennings, SF (5% owned) 10.60
WR – Greg Ward, Phi (4% owned) 9.50
TE – Jesper Horsted, Chi (0% owned) 8.50
FLEX – Kyle Juszczyk (8% owned) 7.82
FLEX – Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Min (8% owned) 7.30
K – Riley Patterson, Det (1% owned) 15.90
DEF – Detroit Lions (3% owned) 13.66
Team Total: 144.78 vs Anthony Battle [125.04]
Here is the recap of Week 15 and this week’s power rankings, followed by a preview of our two playoff games:
Game of the Week: Evan Ash at Cory Puffett
Truly living up to the Game of the Week hype, Evan clinched the AFL West with a come-from-behind Tuesday night victory as Darrell Henderson began the night with a head start but still watched Cooper Kupp race past him, eliminating Cory from the playoffs.
AFL Playoff Preview
As I mentioned in the intro to this writeup, one of the great things about the AFL is that all 12 of our managers still have something to play for.
Our worst four teams are in the Sacko Bracket of our consolation ladder. Sean Kennedy, Andrew Perez, Will Massimini, and Brandon Saunders finished with the four worst records in the AFL this year. Sean lost head-to-head against Alex Mayo to fall to this bracket on the tiebreaker.
The four of them will compete to avoid taking home the 2022 Snyder Award, our name for the “Sacko” made famous by The League. Currently, our punishment for the Snyder Award winner is that they do not get to select their spot during our annual draft pick draft, having to take whatever draft spot nobody else in the league wants.
Our first four out of the playoffs are in the top bracket of the consolation ladder. Cory Puffett, William Battle, Eric Meyer, and Alex Mayo finished in the middle of our league. The first of those three all had winning records at 8-7, in fact.
They’ve guaranteed themselves a Top 4 selection in next year’s draft pick draft, but the winner of the consolation bracket gets first pick, a very valuable prize especially considering Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry (and George Kittle) are ineligible to be kept in 2022.
And for our top four managers, the coveted title of 2022 AFL Champion is in play. A trophy, purchased by yours truly, that you get to keep forever is in play. And the traveling league title belt is in play!
Alex Kincaid was the only manager this year to get to 10 wins and he will be the #1 seed.
Our other three managers in the playoffs all finished at 9-6. Division winners don’t automatically get the second and third seeds, but they did this year based on tiebreakers.
Anthony Battle beat both Evan Ash and Stephen April head-to-head and will be the #2 seed.
Evan and Stephen faced off in last year’s AFL title game and, with our new scheduling rules for a 15-game regular season, faced off twice despite being in different divisions. They split the head-to-head and Evan has the points tiebreaker.
So, Evan will face Anthony while Stephen will face Alex. Evan and Stephen would love to be the first AFL Championship Game rematch in league history.
In fact, this is the first time in AFL history that both the champ and runner-up made the postseason the year after they faced each other in the title game!
Here’s a quick preview of our two playoff games this coming week.
Stephen leads all-time series 4-1
Stephen, in his fourth year in the AFL, makes his second straight appearance in the postseason. Alex, in his third year, makes his first career playoff appearance.
Stephen has done very well against Alex over his career. They’ve shared a division twice in the past three seasons. You see Stephen’s H2H record against him above. Stephen also swept Alex this year, with a narrow 100-99.74 victory in Week 3 and a much more comfortable 159.88-73.9 victory in Week 14.
That Week 3 victory came on a manual stat correction. Rondale Moore had a fumble on a punt return on the fourth play of the game, but punt returns don’t count for or against offensive players. Without that correction, Cory would be in the plays so you’re welcome for catching that, Stephen.
Looking ahead to this matchup, it should be an interesting one. Both teams are pretty healthy. Stephen expects to get Tyler Lockett back from the COVID list this week and Alex expects the same for Kendrick Bourne, though he likely wouldn’t use Bourne unless some of his other starters hit the protocols.
Dak Prescott hasn’t scored more than 12 points in any of his last three games, Joe Mixon hasn’t scored in the double digits in any of his last three games, and D’Andre Swift hasn’t played at all in three weeks. That won’t have Alex feeling great about his chances.
Stephen, meanwhile, has won five straight, including three weeks as a Top 3 scorer in the AFL, and has Mark Andrews who has been on fire, as I talked about earlier in this writeup.
Evan leads all-time series 9-3
While two of the three newest members of the AFL face off in one semifinal, this semi features two OGs of the AFL.
Evan is making just his third career playoff appearance. He is 1-1 in semifinal matchups with his win coming last year before he fell to Stephen in the championship game.
Anthony, meanwhile, is making his AFL-best sixth playoff appearance! He’s had some bad luck, though, going 1-4 in the first round. His one win came back in 2018 when he ultimately lost to his brother in the AFL title game.
Injury and health-wise, Evan is definitely in better shape at the start of this week. Aaron Rodgers is, as always, questionable with his toe injury but there’s no reason to assume the worst there. He hopes to have Darren Waller back this week, too.
Meanwhile for Ant, both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce tested positive for COVID over the past two days. The expectation is that they’ll be back by Sunday but you never know.
He does get Antonio Brown back from his suspension this week and assuming his ankle is healthy and he can quickly get re-integrated into the Tampa offense, that ought to be a huge boost to his WR corps.
I’ll be back at the conclusion of the postseason with my final writeup to announce the AFL Champ and to announce awards and notable stats from the 2021 season.
Good luck to our four playoff teams and to the eight competing in the two consolation brackets!