Written by Cory Puffett
Published December 14, 2021
Back in 2013 and 2014, the first two seasons of the AFL, we played just 13 weeks of regular season fantasy football. Our league was divided into two conferences, each with two divisions of three teams, and only division winners made the playoffs.
We realized how foolish that was and we realigned into three divisions of four teams with divisions winners and a wildcard making the playoffs.
With a schedule in which each team plays division opponents twice and everyone else once, it meant just 13 regular season games in those first two seasons and then 14 games since then, always with two playoff games to follow.
We’ve had seasons in which two NFL weeks went unused. It’s not very fun. So, last year when the NFL expanded to 17 regular season games in 18 weeks, we had a decision to make. We could keep everything the same but return to having two unused weeks of NFL action. We could expand the playoffs and start letting half of the league play for the title (and have bye weeks, which I hate in fantasy football). Or we could expand the regular season.
We ultimately went with the latter and came up with a pretty good system for determining the extra interdivisional game. Because of that, we still have one more week of regular season fantasy football to go!
Nine of our 12 teams are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and all three divisions are up for grabs entering our final week. As I have the past two weeks, I’ll run through a quick preview of our final six regular season matchups at the end of this writeup.
First, though, let’s jump into our Week 14 roundup. Despite a third of our league failing to reach 90 points, we had our first Top 50 scoring week since Week 7 and our highest scoring week of 2021 since Week 5! Our 12 managers combined to total 1,418.64 points, 0.02 more points than in Week 7 pending stat corrections.
Part of that success came from nobody leaving any Top 5 positional performances on their benches this week. It also helped that our managers were successful on eight of their cumulative 15 coaching risks and earned 16.08 net points against FleaFlicker suggestions.
Evan led the way in Week 14 scoring to capture his 17th career Tom Brady Award, tied for the second most in AFL history. His 170.68 points rank 8th all-time for a single-game team score in the AFL.
The biggest contributor to his total was Dalvin Cook, who returned from injury torched the Pittsburgh Steelers on the ground, averaging a season-high 7.6 yards per carry and totaling 39.34 points, which ranks 28th all-time for a starting running back in the AFL.
One of two managers with five Top 5 positional players in his starting lineup, Evan now has a 70.9% chance to make the playoffs according to PlayoffComputer. He is tied for the second-longest active streak of 100-point games after getting his fourth in a row this week.
Meanwhile, Cory won the game of the week, improving to 12-10 in his opportunities to take home the Peyton Manning Award. Sean falls to 6-9 in his game of the week appearances.
Cory only had one Top 5 positional starter this week, but still finished with a Top 5 team score thanks to all nine of his starters scoring at least 9 points. He didn’t have a single point from any of his bench players.
Despite a strong performance from the Denver Broncos defense, Cory ceded the lead in defensive scoring to Alex Kincaid. He did go over 200 defensive points for the season, though, and remains the season leader in kicker scoring with 154.7 points now.
Sean has now gone four straight games without hitting triple digits, tying the 7th longest streak in league history.
Though he lost and is eliminated from division contention, Sean is the coach of the week. He earned a league-high 13.62 points with two successful coaching risks. He earned 5.12 points by starting Ja’Marr Chase instead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire; Chase was coming off a few down weeks, but I was still surprised to see CEH projected to outscore him with Darrel Williams active. Sean earned his other 8.5 points by adding and starting Harrison Butker at kicker instead of Jason Myers.
The week’s second highest scorer, Stephen’s Week 14 total ranks 27th in AFL history! Mark Andrews made his presence felt in the Ravens loss with 22.1 points, the 77th highest starting tight end score our league has seen.
Andrews was one of five Top 5 positional players in Stephen’s starting lineup this week.
As I mentioned, Alex took the lead in defensive scoring on the year from Cory. He was the defensive coach of the week thanks to the 29.5 points the Dallas Cowboys defense contributed. They accounted for just shy of 40% of his Week 14 point total.
Even in defeat, Alex clinched a playoff spot this week, though the AFL East division title is still up for grabs. More on that in the Week 15 preview.
Andrew has been on quite a run of late. It’s too late for his playoff hopes, though he did keep alive his chances at avoiding a fourth straight year of playing in the Sacko bracket of the consolation ladder.
His 153.66 points rank 52nd all-time and, like Stephen, he got a huge boost from the tight end position. For the second straight week, George Kittle put together a Top 100 all-time performance at the position. This week’s wasn’t quite as impressive as his Week 13 performance, but his 26.4 points still ties the 29th highest starting tight end score in AFL history.
Andrew has scored 100 points in five straight games, the longest active streak. Alex, meanwhile, finished sixth in scoring this week, making his the first unlucky loss in the AFL since Week 11. He’s now 2 wins below expected based on performance vs league median this season.
Andrew remains in last in defensive scoring this season, but he did earn kicker coach of the week honors this week. Baltimore’s Justin Tucker scored 15.7 points, the highest total for a starting kicker in the AFL.
William extended his 100-point game streak to four in a row, tied with Evan for the second longest active streak. He did so despite being this week’s Hue Jackson Award winner. He cost his team a league-high 12.4 points by failing on his only coaching risk of the week.
He started the Pittsburgh Steelers defense instead of the Cincinnati Bengals, who he added and benched despite having a higher projection, or the Cleveland Browns, who had a higher projection than Cincy but remained on the waiver wire.
It didn’t matter, though, because Eric didn’t have any Top 5 positional players this week. Eric could wind up as the only manager with fewer than 100 kicker points this season. He has 87.5 entering Week 15, almost six points fewer than any other manager.
PlayoffComputer gives Eric a 66.7% chance to make the playoffs. William is still alive for a spot but he’ll need a lotof help in Week 15.
Like Eric, Brandon had no Top 5 position players on his roster this week. He’s clinched the worst regular season record this season. His 62.52 points in Week 14 are tied for the fifth lowest team score since starting lineups expanded from eight to nine players in 2016.
Anthony had the week’s highest-scoring individual with Josh Allen going for 39.98 points in Buffalo’s loss to Tampa Bay. That point total ranks 23rd among AFL starting quarterbacks. He still only wound up with the 7th highest score in the league, giving him a lucky win.
Brandon’s five-game streak without a 100-point outing sets a new personal worst and ties the third longest streak in AFL history.
This terrible team was better than yours
The following lineup of players who are not on any roster in our league, all of whom are available in at least two-thirds of FleaFlicker leagues, would have beaten all of our teams this week except for our Tom Brady Award winner:
QB – David Mills, Hou (22% owned) 22.28
RB – Rashaad Penny, Sea (33% owned) 28.22
WR – Allen Lazard, GB (25% owned) 18.02
WR – Damiere Byrd, Chi (3% owned) 14.80
TE – Albert Okwuegbunam, Den (15% owned) 11.60
FLEX – Josh Palmer, LAC (21% owned) 14.60
FLEX – Cam Sims, Was (2% owned) 14.20
K – Cairo Santos, Chi (8% owned) 14.70
DEF – Atlanta Falcons (6% owned) 23.82
Team Total: 162.24 vs Evan Ash [170.68]
Here is the recap of Week 14 and this week’s power rankings, followed by a preview of Week 15 action in the AFL:
Game of the Week: Cory Puffett at Sean Kennedy
On the strength of three 20-point performances and all nine players in his lineup scoring at least 9 points, Cory set up a division title game against Evan in Week 15 with a statement win.
Week 15 Preview
And with Week 14 wrapped up, we now head into the 125th regular season week in AFL history, the final week of the 2021 regular season, which includes two de facto division title games! And, thank goodness, bye weeks are done!
All-time series tied 2-2
Stephen can clinch the AFL East with a win and a loss by Alex Kincaid. If he doesn’t get the division title, here is a breakdown of his options for making the playoffs.
Stephen has about a 30-point lead on Eric in scoring this season but he’s almost 30 points behind Anthony and almost 70 points behind Cory, so a victory is his best bet.
The good news for Stephen is that his team is healthy. Mike Williams is dealing with a heel injury and is questionable, but he has Amari Cooper available and, if he wants, another Chargers receiver in Jalen Guyton.
This matchup pits two of the league’s hottest teams against each other. Stephen has won four straight and Andrew has won five of his last six. Andrew would love to play spoiler this week.
Eric leads all-time series 8-3
Eric will win the AFL Central with a win or a tie in this game, but because he’s so far back in points and doesn’t have head-to-head advantages against enough people, he’s mathematically eliminated from the wild card.
A win for Anthony would clinch him the AFL Central. He has some options if he loses, though.
The biggest worry for Anthony entering this week is Josh Allen’s toe injury, which has him listed as questionable. Kareem Hunt is doubtful with an ankle injury but he’s only scored five points total in the two games he’s played since Week 7 so he probably needs to look elsewhere for a flex option, anyway.
If Allen misses this week’s game against Carolina, he’s going to have to play the waiver wire game and hope he picks the right guy.
Eric will be without Elijah Moore (unless he starts him with his IR designation for a second week in a row). But Julio Jones is back, Tyler Boyd is available on his bench, and his running back situation is excellent. The big question is whether he’ll use Carolina’s defense against Buffalo, Indy’s against New England, or head to the waiver wire for a fill-in.
William leads all-time series 10-5
A lot of things have to go right for Williams to make the playoffs, but it’s a pretty straight-forward set of outcomes that can get him there. Brandon has already clinched the worst record in the AFL, so William can’t ask for a better opponent to get the win he needs before worrying about the rest of the league.
Austin Ekeler and DJ Moore are both questionable with ankle and hamstring injuries, respectively. William would also like to have T.J. Hockenson back, who missed Week 14 with a hand injury.
Based on recent results, he might be able to beat Brandon without any of them, but Brandon has already gone five straight games without 100 points and we’ve only seen a team go six straight twice in AFL history. As Eric would say, Brandon is due.
All-time series tied 6-6
The game of the week will feature two of the top five scorers from Week 14. Evan is hoping Darren Waller’s knee injury won’t keep him out of a second straight game. More importantly, Aaron Rodgers complained that his toe felt worse after Green Bay’s win against Chicago on Sunday night and that would be a big hit.
But his wide receivers are so good that Evan is probably going to be the favorite even if he has to go shopping for a replacement quarterback.
Cory has two running backs on the COVID list and really needs Adam Thielen to return from his ankle injury to have a legit shot this week.
The winner of this game will be the AFL West champion. Barring that, here are their paths to the playoffs with a loss.
Sean leads all-time series 7-4
Will was eliminated from the playoffs this week but still has a chance to play spoiler against one of the coldest teams in the league. Sean can’t win the division but he’s still got a path to the playoffs with a win.
Because he’d have a better division record than Cory, and they split their two head-to-head meetings, he’d have the advantage over him if Cory loses, so he needs Evan to win the division title. He probably needs William Battle to lose, too, since he’s so far behind him in scoring this year.
Keep in mind that head-to-head is our first tiebreaker. If he and Stephen were the only ones tied at 8-7, Stephen would have that advantage. But with more than two teams tied, if somebody didn’t beat everybody else (or get eliminated by losing to everyone else), we go straight to points where Sean certainly is in the conversation.
A lot hinges on Lamar Jackson’s health. He was carted off this week with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable with a low-ankle sprain. It’ll limit his rushing upside, but it’s an injury we’ve seen people play through.
Will has to figure out his second FLEX spot, but some great news for him is that the Eagles expect to have Jalen Hurts back coming off their bye week.
All-time series tied 1-1
Kincaid has lost two in a row coming off a six-game win streak. Mayo had a six-game win streak of his own earlier this season but has lost five of six since, three of them with a Top 6 score.
Despite the two straight loses, Kincaid has already clinched a playoff spot. Mayo needs a win and some help.
That win might be tough to get. Melvin Gordon played really well this past week but sprained his thumb on Sunday while Terry McLaurin entered the concussion protocol on Monday, leaving his status for Washington’s game in Philly this Sunday in doubt.
He figures Keenan Allen should be recovered from COVID some time this week, but the Chargers play Thursday night so there’s a question whether he’ll be back in time for that matchup.
Meanwhile, Kincaid is hopeful that D’Andre Swift will return from his shoulder injury this week. He also appears to be thinking hard about whether to start Dak Prescott against the Giants or Kirk Cousins against the Bears. That decision could be a huge difference maker in this game.
Good luck to everyone in the final week of our regular season!