Written by Cory Puffett
Published September 7, 2020
Football is back! In just three days, the Houston Texans and Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will kick off the 2020 season and that means it’s time for another year of fantasy football competition.
Alex Mayo joins the fold this year for the AFL’s 8th season as I, my Sportsballers Podcast co-hosts Eric and Evan, and nine of our good friends compete for glory, honor, a trophy I buy the winner, and a brand-spanking-new title belt Sean Kennedy splurged on after winning his first league title in 2019.
The biggest change to our league for this year is a conversion of the RB2 spot in our starting lineup to a second flex position. I made this decision based on the increased use of committee approaches in NFL backfields. We certainly have managers in the AFL who fill their flex spot with running backs more often than not, but I have also been in, and seen other managers in, situations where I would have killed to be able to start a fourth wide receiver rather than my RB2. Rarely have I found myself in the opposite situation over the past four or five years.
As we all know, draft day is the most exciting part of the fantasy season. Sure, the actual competition is great, and yes if you are one of the hallowed few who earn a coveted playoff spot in your league, there is still plenty of excitement to be had. But it’s always bittersweet when Mr. Irrelevant is taken and the draft lobby closes.
For the record, this year’s Mr. Irrelevant in the AFL is Denver Broncos kicker Brandon McManus, the fifth kicker to hold that moniker in league history.
In the interest of enjoying the draft just a little bit longer, I always enjoy publishing these draft grades articles. As always, with the intention of eliminating my own personal biases, I am using FootballGuys and their updated “Rate my Team” tool to determine the draft grades.
Despite the fact that this year’s version of the tool loads in the league and its settings, the playoff chances based on average in-season management are actually further off this year than last year, when I had to apply a multiplier of about .837 to each manager’s playoff chances. This year, that multiplier is closer to .870 in order to reach a total of 400%, seeing as four of our 12 teams qualify for the postseason.
In addition to the playoff chance as calculated by FootballGuys, I am including a FantasyPros draft score with each draft grade. This score is out of 100 and is based on the consensus rankings of the top 20 most accurate experts from the 2019 season.
As always, I’ll start from the worst draft according to FootballGuys. And just a quick note, last year’s best draft went to Sean Kennedy, who was given a 54.4-percent chance of making the playoffs and ultimately won the AFL title. Last year’s worst draft grade was given to Brandon Saunders, who was given just a 6.7-percent chance of making the postseason but wound up losing to Sean in that title game! So, take these rankings for what they are: fun, but meaningless. Let’s get into it!
There’s no doubt George Kittle is an elite tight end and a player any fantasy football manager wants on his (or her) team. The Buffalo Bills should be a strong defensive start most weeks like they were last year, when they failed to reach triple digits just three times, never recorded a negative defensive score, and finished as the #5 team defense in AFL scoring.
I have to agree with FootballGuys, and FantasyPros for that matter, though when I say I don’t like much else about this roster. I’m not a believer in Carson Wentz, who Evan describes as being “made of papier-mâché.” And while I do like Teddy Bridgewater a lot, I’m not sure that between the two of them Andrew will be able to get a QB12 or better performance in most weeks.
I also am not expecting enough out of Miles Sanders to justify him being the top running back on a team without a true WR1. Melvin Gordon will likely be in a true RBBC with Phillip Lindsay, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2019 and Jordan Howard is an acceptable 7th round flyer but hasn’t shown anything since 2016 to suggest he will be a reliable workhorse back in Miami.
Meanwhile, both Calvin Ridley and Michael Gallup are solid WR2 options for a fantasy team and Jarvis Landry, when healthy, could be one of the best WR3’s on a roster in our league. But everyone behind them has such a wide range of outcomes it will take a lot of start/sit luck to get the most out of this corps, especially without a clear-cut WR1 on the roster.
Last year I earned a pretty good draft grade from FootballGuys and wound up with one of the weaker teams in the league, which I only kept in the playoff race down the stretch thanks to a big add/drop mistake by Evan that landed me Aaron Jones just before his monster 47.6-point outburst against Dallas in Week 5.
This year they don’t like my team as much, and it appears they penalized me pretty significantly for not drafting a backup quarterback to pair with Dak Prescott. I had my eye on a number of options such as Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, and Ben Roethlisberger, each of whom I think could have really good seasons and do not share Prescott’s bye week. But every time I reached a point in the draft where I felt it would make sense to take one of them, they were off the board. By the time I reached the final rounds, I saw three or four QB options left and knew nobody else would be taking them in the draft, so I decided to focus on depth for now, knowing that I can evaluate those handful of guys and pick the best available of them when I reach Prescott’s bye in Week 10.
Incidentally, FantasyPros was not as hard on me, as the 91 they gave my draft is the 2nd best mark in the league! They and FootballGuys like my running back corps of Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson and Zack Moss, Latavius Murray as Kamara’s handcuff, and my COVID-19 IR stash of Ryquell Armstead.
The biggest concern seems to be my wide receivers. I traded $25 in FAAB to Sean a few days ago for Allen Robinson to keep him as my 6th round pick. I also drafted Amari Cooper, D.J. Chark, and Diontae Johnson. Chark seems to be getting a bit of hate from the FootballGuys experts, though one does have him ranked as his 14th WR, and with Mark Andrews at tight end, I personally think my biggest concern this season will be making the right streaming decisions at defense and kicker, as I committed to that strategy by taking those positions with the last two picks in my draft, something I haven’t typically done in the past.
A first-year manager in the AFL, Alex drafted a very strong corps of wide receivers, keeping Michael Thomas in the back end of the first round and picking up Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, and Stefon Diggs in three of the next four rounds.
While this isn’t a bad strategy with the new roster rules this year, it does make him a bit weaker at other positions, particularly running back where his #1 guy is the risky Todd Gurley, who probably doesn’t have a true RB1 ceiling this year. Cam Akers is a rookie and Phillip Lindsay finds himself in an expected time share with Melvin Gordon, Alex’s depth at the position is lacking.
However, I actually like his quarterbacks. Drew Brees isn’t a lock as a top 12 QB, but he’ll be on that bubble and could outperform my QB11 ranking with all the weapons he has around him. I already mentioned I like Cam Newton as a backup, but they have the same bye week, which devalues both players slightly and is likely a big factor in Alex being given such a low playoff chance.
FootballGuys says William has a terrific quarterback combo in Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, both of whom are in their top 12 at the position (Rodgers is my QB13). William should, for the most part, be able to avoid top tier defenses with the schedules these two have.
While they also mention he’s a bit weak at running back, I like his corps for our league format this year. Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler are an excellent 1-2 punch, and Kerryon Johnson is worth the 9th round pick William used on him as a flyer (though Adrian Peterson may diminish that value).
I also really like the tight end duo of Jared Cook and Jonnu Smith. I’m a bit over the New Orleans tight end situation and think the 7th round was a bit early to take him, but he’s a talented player and I think Smith is a breakout candidate in Tennessee.
My biggest concern for William is at the wide receiver position. Tyler Lockett and Will Fuller are both considered WR3’s by FootballGuys. I think they’re a bit too low on Lockett, but I only have him as a mid- to back-end WR2. The good news, as I’ve mentioned many times before, is that wide receiver is the easiest position to shore up off waivers during the season. It’s the position where the most players emerge throughout the year as fantasy-relevant options.
FantasyPros is also low on this team, offering William a draft score just barely ahead of Andrew’s. They rank his wide receiver corps 12th in our league, which may be more than can be made up by scouring the waiver wire. They also disagree with my assessment of his tight end situation, ranking him 10th in the league there.
FootballGuys calls Evan’s wide receiver corps the strongest part of his team. Considering FantasyPros ranks his wide receiver group 9th in the AFL, that might not be a good thing.
FantasyPros also ranks Evan’s quarterback situation 12th in the league, but I disagree. Neither Matthew Stafford nor Jared Goff are likely to finish the year much better than the QB12, they are an excellent pairing if you are looking to stream the position, which is what you usually do when you wait until the 8th and 11th rounds to draft your quarterbacks.
I happen to like Evan’s receiver corps of Thielen, Sutton, Hollywood Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders. And while I’d be a bit worried with only three running backs on the roster, Ezekiel Elliott and Josh Jacobs could both finish as top 12 running backs and J.K. Dobbins is a solid flyer. But if anybody gets hurt, Evan is going to be at a severe disadvantage.
Evan will need a bit of luck in making the right decision at quarterback each week, he’ll need to find a tight end for Tyler Higbee’s bye week (Higbee is the #9 TE according to both FootballGuys and myself, so he’s a bit risky as the only tight end on the team), and he will want to pray for a running back to fall into his lap off waivers this year.
Just don’t accidentally drop Elliott, and you should be in the playoff picture in the back half of the season.
Brandon’s weakness is undoubtedly at the running back position, but there’s still a lot to love here. Deshaun Watson is a terrific quarterback and will put up strong numbers even in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins. Baker Mayfield draws the Las Vegas Raiders on Watson’s bye week, so he’s a great backup to have.
Brandon incidentally has DeAndre Hopkins on his roster, alongside D.J. Moore and Odell Beckham Jr., and the Raiders’ new slot man, Henry Ruggs, was a good flyer to take as the 46th receiver off the board in our draft.
Joe Mixon is a good starting running back, but I have concerns about Le’Veon Bell as his #2, as he’s coming off a down year last year despite handling all but about 50 carries in the Jets’ offense for the season. Now they’ve brought in Frank Gore, the type of “old-school” player Adam Gase wants to marry, so I have concerns there.
Tight end is an interesting position on this roster. Brandon went heavy by taking three of them. I usually advise against that as it can leave other positions very weak, but FantasyPros ranks his tight end corps 12th in the AFL, so it might be good that Brandon took so many as it increases the chances he has a guy who will stick. Austin Hooper was excellent in Atlanta last year, but will he find his groove in a Cleveland offense that struggled last year without an offseason to build a rapport with Baker? Evan is big on Noah Fant, but I don’t like that Drew Lock is throwing him the ball. And Christopher Herndon, between suspensions and injuries, only caught two passes last season. Still, all three are talented players and, for Brandon’s sake, hopefully one of them stands out.
In a season where we’ve reduced the required number of starters at the running back position, it’s probably not the best time to have RB as the strongest position on the team. That’s just what Stephen has, though, with Dalvin Cook (and his handcuff Alexander Mattison), Kenyan Drake (and his handcuff Chase Edmonds), and Kareem Hunt.
With that said, I do like his wide receiver corps better than FootballGuys seems to. Mike Evans is a back-end WR1 on my board, Keenan Allen should get an early-season boost from the absence of Mike Williams, and once he returns from injury Deebo Samuel will be a focal point in the 49ers passing game. I have some doubts about JuJu Smith-Schuster, but with Ben Roethlisberger returning he’ll see more quality targets than he was last year and could certainly bounce back.
Quarterback could be a concern for Stephen, though. Josh Allen, Gardner Minshew, and Tua Tagovailoa will give him plenty of options each week, but that could also lead to plenty of headaches and there will be weeks when all three struggle to reach double digits.
FantasyPros ranks Stephen 3rd at flex, but right in the middle of the league at RB, QB, and WR. They also really don’t like his tight end duo of Mike Gesicki and Blake Jarwin, which they ranked 11th in the AFL.
Stephen should have little trouble staying afloat in playoff contention through the early going, but it will take some waiver wire activity to remain in that conversation down the stretch.
Our defending league champion was given the best playoff chances following the 2019 AFL draft, so he regressed a bit this year. I think a big part of that is that he drafted eight wide receivers. That’s right, fully half of his roster is made up of wide receivers.
Lamar Jackson, if healthy, will have another great season and Ryan Tannehill will face the Bengals coming off his bye week when Jackson is on bye.
Travis Kelce will be Sean’s every-week starter at tight end, and a dud at that position for one week during his bye can be absorbed more than at most other positions.
Dean’s receivers include Davante Adams and T.Y. Hilton at the top, which I’m fine with. I’ll be honest, I’m not excited about a single one of his other six receivers, but one or two of them are bound to pop and A.J. Green, while a bit of a reach in the 5th round I think, could have a strong return and figures to be the type of guy a rookie like Joe Burrow might want to lean on heavily.
I have serious concerns at running back for Sean, though. Mark Ingram is barely an RB2 on most rankings and is unlikely to repeat his 2019 performance with the addition of J.K. Dobbins to Baltimore’s roster. David Montgomery is my RB33, largely due to the fact that he’s expected to miss anywhere from 2 weeks to the entire first month of the season. And James White is unlikely to see the kind of workload he got last year in New England, or the quality of targets in the pass game. Sure, we know Christian McCaffrey had plenty of success with Cam Newton, but Newton’s overthrow rate when targeting CMC left a lot to be desired and James White is about an inch shorter.
And don’t just take my word for it. FantasyPros ranks Sean’s running back and flex situations both 12th in the AFL following the draft. They also rank his defense and kicker situations 10th. For reference, I made a conscious decision to stream both positions and FantasyPros ranks my defense and kicker both 7th. Sean took his defense two rounds before I took mine and may find himself even more reliant on streaming those positions than I will.
Will has what I consider to be a very balanced team. No position really stands out as a top 3 group in the league, but I also wouldn’t consider any position to be problematic for him.
Kyler Murray and Ben Roethlisberger have the same bye week, which sort of negates what I think was a great flyer to take on Big Ben. Kyler should be the every-week starter so it doesn’t make much sense to stream the position.
Kenny Golladay should have a good season with Stafford back to throw him the ball, A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf had great second-half runs in their rookie campaigns last year and should continue to show out in their sophomore seasons. Christian Kirk should be the #2 target for Murray in that Arizona offense so getting him in the 9th round of our draft as the 42nd receiver off the board is a steal.
At running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire went off the board a few spots before I would have expected him to, but he’s an exciting player who could absolutely be worth the third overall pick in the draft, especially with McCaffrey and Barkley being late first-round keepers. James Conner as a keeper in the 11th round is good value for Will and Marlon Mack is the week 1 starter in Indianapolis. I know people are excited about Jonathan Taylor, and for good reason, but Mack is an immensely talented running back and I’m not convinced he’ll relinquish the starting role unless he’s got an incredibly short leash.
Hunter Henry and Eric Ebron are a good tight end duo, though FantasyPros ranks them the 9th best corps in the AFL, so it’s a position to keep an eye on. Will also seems dedicated to streaming the defense and kicker positions so the weakness reported by FantasyPros isn’t that big of a concern.
Last year, Alex took over his team after the draft, so this was his first opportunity to draft his own team in our league and he did a pretty good job, all told. FantasyPros doesn’t love his draft, but FootballGuys does.
Alex kept Patrick Mahomes in the 7th round and drafted Daniel Jones as his backup, which is fine. Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski are a strong tight end duo and Alex could find himself starting both of them frequently, especially seeing as his running back and receiver corps leave something to be desired.
Nick Chubb is an excellent RB1, and Chris Carson could be, too, if he ever solves his fumbling problems. I like the depth pick of Raheem Mostert, who had a great stretch at the end of last season but who we will have to wait and see on this year with the return of Jerick McKinnon, not to mention Tevin Coleman fighting to get his role in the offense back. Chris Thompson is also an interesting flyer with the departure of Leonard Fournette. I think Thompson is washed at this point in his career, but you never know.
Cooper Kupp is a below average WR1 and may be more of a true WR2, to be honest. Jerry Jeudy is considered “pro-ready” by most experts, but as with most rookie receivers, I would advise against expecting too much in the first eight weeks.
FantasyPros ranks Alex’s RB and WR corps 9th and 11th in the league, respectively. They do like his kicker, Greg Zuerlein, but they and I recommend paying very close attention to the waiver wire for defenses each week as the Titans, even with the addition of Jadeveon Clowney, are not going to be a reliable every-week start.
If there’s a weakness on this team, it’s at the quarterback position. Christian McCaffrey will carry the running back position and either Jonathan Taylor or Leonard Fournette could emerge as a viable flex starter at some point in the near future.
In the meantime, Tyreek Hill and Robert Woods will have a lock on the two starting receiver positions and CeeDee Lamb will likely be a regular flex starter as well. Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, and Curtis Samuel are all excellent depth picks at the position and will likely rotate through that second flex spot until Taylor or Fournette are ready to entire the rotation.
Evan Engram and Dallas Goedert should provide ample production at the tight end position. Kicker won’t be an issue with Justin Tucker. The Rams and Patriots should allow Anthony to largely ignore the waiver wire on that front.
The concern at quarterback is simply with Tom Brady’s age. He has plenty of weapons around him, but will he remain elite? For Anthony’s sake, hopefully, because while we all hope Joe Burrow can help Cincinnati turn things around, it’s unlikely he’ll be a viable fantasy starter in his rookie season. Anthony will have plenty of time to figure out if Burrow is the right backup to have, since Brady doesn’t have his bye until Week 13. That said, playing 12 straight weeks of football could also have a detrimental effect for Brady.
Bottom line: I fully expect to see this team in the postseason as it’s probably the most balanced team top to bottom across every position.
The pressure is on for Eric to record his fourth 12-win season in league history. A draft score of 100 from FantasyPros, the only A+ draft grade given by FootballGuys in our league, and a two-in-three chance of making the playoffs with average in-season management, Eric’s draft is getting all the accolades.
Quarterback is the weakest part of Eric’s team according to both FantasyPros (which ranks his QB duo of Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins 8th in the AFL) and FootballGuys, which ranks Ryan as their QB10 and Cousins as their QB26. FootballGuys also notes that Cousins draws a tough matchup with the Bears defense during Ryan’s bye week.
Derrick Henry is now established as one of the best running backs in the league, so a third-round pick is great value for Eric’s keeper. Aaron Jones and David Johnson are both good RB2 prospects and Jones should be an every-week flex starter. Tarik Cohen is a solid depth pick, especially for early in the season while David Montgomery figures to miss time.
Eric also did a good job at wide receiver with Julio Jones falling to him late in the 1st round of the draft. DeVante Parker, while not exciting, has the league experience to make him a player Tua Tagovailoa may want to lean on, and Brandin Cooks is likely going to be the new WR1 in Houston, so he should be well worth the 8th round pick Eric spent on him.
Eric went heavy at tight end with Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, and Greg Olsen. Hockenson had a great week 1 last year with Matt Stafford and struggled the rest of the way while Stafford was hurt. He’s a bounce-back candidate this year and Waller should enjoy another strong season with the Raiders.
Eric also shouldn’t have to worry about defense too much as he got the 49ers defense and will only need to pick somebody up for their bye week. And while Matt Prater isn’t considered starter-worthy by FootballGuys, Eric can easily stream the kicker position, granted it’s a position he’s struggled to stream successfully in the past.