Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Knile Davis, RB, KC (+37 picks) – This means that Knile went 37 picks after his rank

Shonn Green, RB, TEN (+34 picks)

Donald Brown, RB, SD (+32 picks)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Eli Manning, QB, NYG (-84 picks) – This means that Eli went 84 picks before his rank

Carolina Panthers, DEF (-46 picks)

Keenan Allen, WR, SD (-39 picks)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Cam Newton, CAR (No. 4 QB)

RB Arian Foster, HOU (No. 12 RB)

WR1 Keenan Allen, SD (No. 13 WR)

WR2 Torrey Smith, BAL (No. 20 WR)

TE Greg Olsen, CAR (No. 8 TE)

FLEX Joique Bell, RB, DET (No. 33 FLEX)

DEF Carolina Panthers (No. 5 DEF)

K Mason Crosby (No. 4 K)

I’ll be the first to say that William has some great depth on his squad, but his starting lineup leaves plenty to be desired. Cam Newton was his best selection among his starting squad, grabbing him 15 picks behind where I had him ranked. Torrey Smith was also a nice grab, as he lasted eight spots past my ranking. In fact, William also made a nice pick on Joique Bell. He was the 32nd flex player to go and was ranked number 33 on my list.

The problem with Battle’s team is that he made some pretty significant reaches, and two of them are on his starting lineup. He chose to keep Keenan Allen from his 2013 roster. Allen had a pretty terrific season, one of the rare rookie receivers to finish among the top 20 scorers at the position. But he was the 13th ranked receiver in the draft. Even with some other receivers being kept, guys like A.J. Green and Dez Bryant would have been available for Battle to select with his first overall pick had he opted not to keep anybody.

The other starter on that list of biggest reaches is the Carolina Panthers defense. He selected them at number 85 overall while I had them ranked at 131. That’s a 46-pick reach! There were plenty of other good bench players he could have selected in the 8th round of the draft that would have had more value. In addition, the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals defenses, both of which I had ranked higher than Carolina’s, were still on the board. Denver’s still would have been a reach, but a 20-pick reach is a lot less debilitating than a 46-pick reach.

Once you combine all value-based ranks, Team Battle ends up with a -128 for his starters, a +80 for his bench, and a -48 overall.

This ranks Team Battle 6th in the AFL for overall team value and 12th in starter value. Bench doesn’t matter much by itself so I didn’t bother ranking that.

This does not doom Team Battle to another last place finish in the league, but it does mean that there won’t be much room for error. William will have to be very accurate in starting the highest scorer on his roster at each position every week if he’s to win enough games to win his division.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 28 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about an 8 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Jarrett Boykin, WR, GB (+37)

Mark Ingram, RB, NO (+26)

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI (+22)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Robert Griffin III, QB, WSH (-61)

Delanie Walker, TE, TEN (-53)

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI (-36)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Jay Cutler, CHI (No. 13 QB)

RB Eddie Lacy, GB (No. 4 RB)

WR1 Dez Bryant, DAL (No. 4 WR)

WR2 Vincent Jackson, TB (No. 12 WR)

TE Delanie Walker (No. 16 TE)

FLEX Andre Ellington, RB, ARZ (No. 29 FLEX)

DEF St. Louis Rams (No. 6 DEF)

K Robbie Gould, CHI (No. 10 K)

Eric already knows that I had RGIII ranked pretty low compared to him and several websites. When I did my pre-draft rankings, I averaged several different websites and then made some minor adjustments to fit my feelings. Of course, not all adjustments were particularly minor.

I didn’t move RGIII as much as some might think, but he was one of the more significant drops on my rankings because of how poor this preseason has been for him. Interestingly enough, he was the first quarterback Eric took in the draft, but I had Cutler ranked ahead of RGIII by two positional spots and by 62 spots overall (yeah, I was anticipating a bigger gap in QB selections once the first 12 or so were off the board). Ultimately, because I anticipated a bigger gap than there was, that -61 draft value grade for Robert may not be quite fair, but he was still a big reach.

Eric knew right away that Jeremy Maclin was a reach; especially once he saw that Kendall Wright was still on the board. Lucky for him, Wright fell to his next selection and, more or less, balanced out with Maclin, so that ended up not being a huge deal.

But Delanie Walker was a surprise reach. With guys like Antonio Gates and Heath Miller still on the board, it seemed silly to me that he grabbed Walker in the 11th round. The issue here though is less with the positional reach and more with the overall reach. Walker was off the board nearly five rounds before my projection. Even if some other people didn’t quite agree with me, he would have lasted a minimum of two more rounds before someone would have taken him. That’s a lot of value to give up.

Eric’s team earned a value-based grade of -24 for his starting lineup, a +16 for his bench, and a -8 overall.

With those grades, Eric’s starting unit is ranked 5th in the AFL in overall team value and 6th in starter value.

A few waiver wire gems would be enough to vault this team into a battle for a playoff spot. As it is, depending on bye weeks and balanced week-to-week results, Eric’s starting lineup is about on par with the top ranked starting squad in the division.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 63 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 46 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN (+19)

Ben Tate, RB, CLE (+10)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Coby Fleener, TE, IND (-55)

Tony Romo, QB, DAL (-48)

Matt Prater, K, DEN (-40)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Tony Romo, DAL (No. 14 QB)

RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA (No. 6 RB)

WR1 Pierre Garçon, WSH (No. 11 WR)

WR2 Victor Cruz, NYG (No. 16 WR)

TE Jason Witten, DAL (No. 6 TE)

FLEX Doug Martin, RB, TB (No. 31 FLEX)

DEF Houston Texans (No. 11 DEF)

K Matt Prater, DEN (Unranked)

I told him when he drafted Coby, and I’ll tell Nolan again: there is no guarantee that Coby is the guy in Indy this season. I love Coby Fleener. Obviously Andrew Luck does, too. They played together at Stanford and they have great chemistry. But Indianapolis also really liked Dwayne Allen, which is why I had Allen ranked above Fleener. Of course, neither cracked my top 192 (12 teams, 16 rounds, 192 picks for those scratching your heads).

Fleener was the 17th TE off the board, but he was my TE21, meaning that at least four better tight ends were available when Nolan selected him. Not to mention he didn’t crack my top 192 yet was taken in the 13th round.

Tony Romo was an interesting pick. From a positional standpoint, he wasn’t an astronomical reach. Sure I had Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick all ranked ahead of him, and yeah they were all still available, but Tony Romo has been a fantasy beast before and he could be again (granted it could take an injury to DeMarco Murray for that to happen). The problem is that he took Romo 48 picks sooner than he could have had him. That’s 48 picks-worth of value Nolan passed up on to grab the Dallas quarterback.

Then there’s Matt Prater. Now, fantasy experts always suggest you only draft one kicker. If ever there was a guy who should have drafted two, it’s Nolan. Prater is suspended for the first four weeks of the season, and though he could very well lead the league in points over the course of the final nine weeks of the regular season, that won’t do Nolan much good for his first four matchups. I didn’t even have Prater ranked, but to be nice I gave him the ranking just below the last player I did rank in order to give him a value of -40, even though it should probably be much lower than that.

Now, everyone is going to reach for players. Even I reached for a couple and I was using these rankings when I drafted. The problem comes when you don’t land any gems. Nolan only landed two guys 10 or more picks after they were valued, and only one is likely to make any kind of contribution in the first half of the season (I don’t see there being any real time-share between Bernard and Hill in Cincinnati).

Put it all together and Los Pollos Hermanos earned a -112 value-based rating for the starting lineup, a -21 for the bench, and an overall -133.

This all adds up to a rank of 11th in overall team value and 11th for starter value in the AFL. Los Pollos Hermanos is the only team in the bottom third of the league in both values, so this really puts them in a tough position. Not that I’m complaining, I get first crack at him this week.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 46 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Knowshon Moreno, RB, MIA (+34)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

New Orleans Saints, DEF (-65)

Dexter McCluster, WR, TEN (-48)

Tyler Eifert, TE, CIN (-41)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB (No. 3 QB)

RB Adrian Peterson, MIN (No. 5 RB)

WR1 Randall Cobb, GB (No. 15 WR)

WR2 T.Y. Hilton, IND (No. 21 WR)

TE Jordan Reed, WSH (No. 9 TE)

FLEX Frank Gore, RB, SF (No. 32 FLEX)

DEF New Orleans Saints (No. 15 DEF)

K Stephen Gostkowski, NE (No. 1 K)

Let me preface this by saying that Saswat had more than one catch. He actually had three. But one was only by four spots and the other was by three. I’m only listing the top three catches of more than ten spots overall. Saswat only had one of those.

Now, Knowshon Moreno probably isn’t the catch you want to get, but when seven worse running backs than him were drafted ahead of him, you’ll take him, especially since there has been talk of some sort of time-share between him and Lamar Miller to start the year in Miami. Last year Moreno started the year in a time-share and wound up being a top five RB in pretty much every league regardless of scoring. Now, Peyton Manning running backs tend to do quite well, so don’t expect that kind of production from him this year, but for being the 39th RB off the board, this is great value.

Unfortunately, Saswat undid himself with three really bad reaches. The first was the New Orleans Saints defense in the 11th round. Now, AFL teams went for defenses a little earlier than most fantasy experts would like to see, but if they’re taking defenses, sometimes you have to take one, too. But you have to get the most bang for your buck. Saswat took the ninth defense off the board, but I had the Saints ranked 15th at the position, which is honestly higher than a lot of sites have them (surprisingly, considering how well they did last year). That means at least six better defenses were on the board, and they included the Rams, Ravens and Texans. Not to mention, the next defense on the board was more than two rounds after Saswat took the Saints. If he really wanted New Orleans, he could have had them three rounds later and had better value on his bench.

Dexter McCluster is a decent option in a PPR league like ours, but keep in mind that ours is closer to the half-point PPR variety than to a true PPR league. There were 11 better receivers available when Saswat took McCluster and 48 picks worth of value given up to take him.

As for Tyler Eifert, I’ll let his 2013 numbers do the talking. He played in every game except for Week 17, yet was only the 27th highest scoring tight end in our league. He was so bad that even Jermaine Gresham managed to rank above him, and Gresham is still on the team. Now, I did bump Eifert up a few positional spots, and I didn’t even bother to rank Gresham, but I just don’t see Eifert making a jump worthy of a draft pick this season, even in the 15th round. Like I did for Prater, though, I was (relatively) merciful and just gave Eifert a No. 218 ranking since he didn’t fall in my “Next 25” list after the 192 picks.

The Washington RedCapWizTerps ended up with a -93 rating for starting value, a -124 for bench value, and a -217 for overall value-based drafting.

This ranks Saswat dead last (12th) in the AFL for overall value. His team is 8th in starter value. While that starter value could end up giving him a respectable season, his bench is so poor that it will take some real waiver wire magic to save him from any potential disastrous bye weeks.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 68 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 53 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 34 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Heath Miller, TE, PIT (+55)

Rueben Randle, WR, NYG (+35)

Steven Jackson, RB, ATL (+12)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Andrew Hawkins, WR, CLE (-130)

Josh McCown, QB, TB (-57)

Zach Ertz, TE, PHI (-32)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Matthew Stafford, DET (No. 6 QB)

RB Matt Forte, CHI (No. 3 RB)

WR1 A.J. Green, CIN (No. 3 WR)

WR2 Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ (No. 14 WR)

TE Heath Miller, PIT (No. 13 TE)

FLEX DeSean Jackson, WR, WSH (No. 45 FLEX)

DEF Buffalo Bills (No. 12 DEF)

K Blair Walsh, MIN (No. 9 K)

Heath Miller was the best value draft choice for Team Massimini on Sunday. The veteran tight end dropped 55 placed beyond where I ranked him and William picked him up in the 13th round. Miller wasn’t the first tight end the team picked up though. Zach Ertz was a 10th round selection, but was one positional rank behind Miller, which is why Ertz is not only not on the projected starting lineup but is also on the list of biggest reaches.

The other two players on the biggest reaches list, I’ll admit, are up for debate. Josh McCown did a fantastic job last year filling in for an injured Jay Cutler in Chicago. The reason I had him ranked as the No. 22 QB and No. 185 player overall is because I’m expecting a sizeable drop-off in productions this year. I think that McCown is a good quarterback, but I also believe he was a product of having such great weapons around him. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery were the best receiver duo in the league last year. Matt Forte is arguably the best receiving back in the game. The Buccaneers have a good receiver in Vincent Jackson, but I put Marshall and Jeffery both ahead of him, and Doug Martin is no Matt Forte, on the ground or through the air.

Andrew Hawkins is the one that really got me thinking after the draft though, because 130 picks is a lot and he probably deserved to be ranked higher than 195. That said, these were my rankings before the draft so I’m not going to change it now, and I’ll even defend why he was my 65th ranked receiver. Somebody has to step in for Josh Gordon, but I don’t think it’ll be a receiver. I think Ben Tate is going to get a lot of work out of the backfield, I think Terrence West will get plenty of opportunities to spell Tate. And, considering Brian Hoyer is the starter and he had great chemistry with him early last season, I don’t see why Jordan Cameron can’t be score 15+ points every week. Those will be the big receivers because Kyle Shanahan knows he doesn’t have much to work with at receiver and he’ll be designing a lot of plays that involve the tight end and running back. By the time defenses adjust to that and the receivers get an increase in targets, the fantasy season will be halfway done and, because of little work, Miles Austin will still be healthy and getting plenty of looks.

Based on value, Team Massimini earned a grade of +48 for the starters, -168 for the bench, and -120 overall.

William’s starters are the top-ranked unit in the league based on value, but the value-based grade for his team as a whole drops him to 9th.

The good news is that the starters are the most important part of a fantasy team. The problem is that if bye weeks screw things up or, worse, someone gets injured, Team Massimini doesn’t have reliable depth. Some waiver wire magic may be required to take this preseason contender to a postseason appearance.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF (+47)

Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF (+37)

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, CAR (+33)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Alex Smith, QB, KC (-32)

San Francisco 49ers, DEF (-31)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Nick Foles, PHI (No. 7 QB)

RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT (No. 10 RB)

WR1 Demaryius Thomas, DEN (No. 2 WR)

WR2 Andre Johnson, HOU (No. 10 WR)

TE Dennis Pitta, BAL (No. 7 TE)

FLEX Trent Richardson, RB, IND (No. 55 FLEX)

DEF San Francisco 49ers (No. 3 DEF)

K Adam Vinatieri, IND (No. 6 K)

This is easily one of the best value-based teams in the league this year. Props to the first-time fantasy football player, even though he did have some help from a few of us, including the guy who created the player rankings governing this evaluation.

One honorable mention catch that Project Mayhem got was Trent Richardson as the flex. Richardson has been a bust so far in his career, but he’s still the starter in Indy and he went 20 picks later than I had him slated for and 16 flex-eligible players I had ranked behind him were selected before he was.

An honorable mention reach was Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta, selected 13 picks ahead of my projection. However, he was the 8th tight end selected and was my 7th ranked tight end, so I didn’t include him as an actual reach.

The big reach that hurts is actually quarterback Alex Smith. Now, I like Smith; just not for fantasy. I also don’t like him when you already have two quarterbacks on your roster. Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick are both starting-caliber quarterbacks in a 12-team league, so Andrew missed out on depth at the tight end position (he only has one tight end and Heath Miller was available for solid value at the 127th pick).

The 49ers defense doesn’t hurt too badly, but Aldon Smith is gone for nine games and some other important players are not healthy. The Denver Broncos would have been a better selection and they were available at that point in the draft.

After applying my value-based equation, Project Mayhem winds up with a -16 for the starting lineup, a +114 for the bench, and a +98 overall.

Andrew’s starting lineup is ranked 5th in the AFL based on value while his team’s overall value-based ranking is 2nd.

Project Mayhem could use a little bit of work on the starting lineup, but the depth is fantastic and has a great shot of turning up a gem that could get big points and take this team to the playoffs.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 63 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 46 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Toby Gerhart, RB, JAX (+30)

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE (+15)

James Jones, WR, OAK (+11)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Nick Novak, K, SD (-49)

Antonio Gates, TE, SD (-42)

Steve Smith, Sr., WR, BAL (-17)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Peyton Manning, DEN (No. 2 QB)

RB Reggie Bush, DET (No. 13 RB)

WR1 Brandon Marshall, CHI (No. 5 WR)

WR2 Michael Floyd, ARZ (No. 22 WR)

TE Antonio Gates, SD (No. 15 TE)

FLEX C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF (No. 42 FLEX)

DEF Denver Broncos (No. 2 DEF)

K Nick Novak, SD (No. 8 K)

Almost anybody can be a great catch at the right spot in the draft. Stevan Ridley was a solid pick 15 spots after his projected value. I loved the Toby Gerhart pick. Well, actually I hated it because I was going to try and get him with my next pick. And James Jones could be even better value than my projections show with Derek Carr taking over as the starting quarterback in Oakland.

Nick Novak was a big reach, made worse by the fact that there were four better kickers available. Unless you’re going after Stephen Gostkowski, there’s really no reason to push for a kicker in the mid rounds of the draft, but if you’re going to do it you need to really look for value. Phil Dawson and Steven Hauschka are ranked higher than Nick Novak by every expert I’ve seen and were both on the board when Sean made his kicker selection. If his purpose was to have a University of Maryland grad on his team, he could have taken Novak in the 15th round, when the 8th kicker was taken, and gotten much better value in the 11th round.

Antonio Gates is an interesting pick. On one hand, it was a huge reach to take him in the 12th round. On the other hand, all of the better tight ends had been taken and even one tight end ranked behind Gates was off the board. Ultimately, this was Sean reaching for a guy because he waited too long to take his first tight end. Hopefully it works out, but with Ladarius Green expected to be the starter by midseason, that may leave Sean with rookie Eric Ebron who has had some trouble catching the ball this preseason.

Steve Smith, Sr. was a 17-pick reach, which isn’t the end of the world, but there were at least eight better receivers on the board, guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin and rookies Markus Wheaton and Kelvin Benjamin would have been better picks at that point.

The value-based draft grade for the Mud City Manglers was a -109 for the starting unit (a big part of that was the reach for Nick Novak), a +31 for the bench and a -78 overall.

Sean’s starting unit is ranked 10th in the league based on value, but his overall team rank is 7th. The hope here is that some of the depth he has will make up for the lost starter value.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about an 81 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 73 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Danny Woodhead, RB, SD (+59)

Carlos Hyde, RB, SF (+49)

Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN (+24)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Cincinnati Bengals, DEF (-29)

EJ Manuel, QB, BUF (-15)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Andrew Luck, IND (No. 5 QB)

RB Montee Ball, DEN (No. 7 RB)

WR1 Michael Crabtree, SF (No. 17 WR)

WR2 Julian Edelman, NE (No. 19 WR)

TE Jimmy Graham, NO (No. 1 TE)

FLEX Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN (No. 16 FLEX)

DEF Cincinnati Bengals (No. 4 DEF)

K Justin Tucker, BAL (No. 2 K)

Danny Woodhead has been a very good, if inconsistent, PPR threat in fantasy for the past couple seasons. He ranked 33rd at running back on my list and I got him as the 44th running back off the board. Even if I ranked him too high to start, that’s very good value for my RB4 from a positional standpoint.

Carlos Hyde is my RB5 but considering he’s one of the highest-ranked true handcuffs in fantasy, I really liked my value here, too. This one was a +9 catch from a positional standpoint and an overall value of +49.

Kyle Rudolph was a nice catch, too. He could be trade bait since I already have Jimmy Graham, but if I don’t trade him, I have one of the best TE2 players in the league backing up the best TE1 option in the league.

Even my two reaches weren’t too bad, which isn’t surprising since, again, I had my own rankings right in front of me for this draft. I took the Bengals 29 picks ahead of where I had them ranked, but there was a run on defenses and considering I was the 6th team to take a defense, I was thrilled my No. 4 defense was still on the board.

EJ Manuel, if anything, was my worst pick, and that was my own fault for waiting so long on my backup quarterback. The good news is that there could be some great guys to take off the waiver wire by the time we get a few weeks into the season and I have to start preparing for Andrew Luck’s bye week.

It should come as no surprise that my overall team value was a league best +167. The interesting thing is that my starter value was a -1, which was 4th in the league.

My bench is my strong point, but my starting unit is still among the league’s best. Let’s hope my rankings were pretty close to how things will actually turn out, or things won’t go as well as I expect them to this season.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 64 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Terrance West, RB, CLE (+53)

Chris Johnson, RB, NYJ (+38)

Philip Rivers, QB, SD (+35)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

New England Patriots, DEF (-47)

Jared Cook, TE, STL (-30)

Andre Roberts, WR, WSH (-29)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Russell Wilson, SEA (No. 8 QB)

RB Zac Stacy, STL (No. 11 RB)

WR1 Calvin Johnson, DET (No. 1 WR)

WR2 Antonio Brown, PIT (No. 7 WR)

TE Vernon Davis, SF (No. 5 TE)

FLEX Chris Johnson, RB, NYJ (No. 34 FLEX)

DEF Seattle Seahawks (No. 1 DEF)

K Phil Dawson, SF (No. 5 K)

Anthony really likes the NFC West apparently, which is funny since he plays in the NFC West division in our league. Terrance West is a great catch at the 165th pick in the draft since I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some level of a timeshare in Cleveland. I really do think that between Jordan Cameron and their two running backs, most of Hoyer’s passes early in the season will not be directed to receivers. Ben Tate won’t get all the reps out of the backfield, so West will have some value.

That huge reach for the Patriots defense was really unnecessary. From a positional standpoint, this was the perfect pick, but considering he already has the top defense in the league, one that should start every week, there was no need to reach almost four rounds for the No. 7 defense.

Jared Cook went two and a half rounds early, and nobody should be reaching on him after the trouble he’s had producing in the Rams offense. The good news is that Anthony already has a very good tight end and this could end up being a sleeper pick if Shaun Hill ends up targeting his tight end more than previous Rams quarterbacks have.

I didn’t even have Andre Roberts in my “Next 25” list, and he was the last wide receiver I ranked out of 81. In a league that counts return yards for receivers, this could be a good pick. But only the team defenses get points for return yards, so I just don’t see Andre Roberts ever being a viable starting option at receiver. The good news is that this was a 16th round pick, and if there’s every a good time to go with an outside flyer, it’s in the last round of the draft.

The Jack Gasses have an even value for the bench, so the value-based grade for the starting unit and for the overall team is a +21. This ranks the team 3rd in the AFL both for starter value and overall team value.

After losing in his semifinal matchup in last year’s playoffs, this was an excellent draft for a guy looking to earn his first league title in the AFL. He was the first league champ in our previous league.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 56 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO (+26)

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK (+24)

Mike Evans, WR, TB (+18)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Kansas City Chiefs, DEF (-71)

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL (-67)

Benny Cunningham, RB, STL (-28)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Tom Brady, NE (No. 12 QB)

RB LeSean McCoy, PHI (No. 2 RB)

WR1 Jordy Nelson, GB (No. 9 WR)

WR2 Marques Colston, NO (No. 33 WR)

TE Julius Thomas, DEN (No. 2 TE)

FLEX Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE (No. 27 FLEX)

DEF Kansas City Chiefs (No. 9 DEF)

K Dan Bailey, DAL (No. 7 K)

Remember, it’s all about drafting the best value for your draft pick. This starting lineup is pretty solid at first glance, but Evan missed out on a lot of value. Only one of his starters is on the biggest reaches list, but there were two honorable mentions that are on his starting lineup. Tom Brady was a -25 overall reach (-5 positional) and Marques Colston was a -20 overall reach (-5 positional). That means that both of them were taken roughly two rounds early and with at least five better options available at their position at the time Evan drafted them.

The Kansas City Chiefs went with four better defenses available, including the Bengals and Rams. Joe Flacco was a self-admitted homer pick, which I can respect. But Evan could have easily landed him in the 15th round, maybe even the 16th, instead of the 11th where he took Flacco.

Benny Cunningham is a classic boom or bust pick. In my opinion, if anybody is going to take carries away from Zac Stacy it’ll be Tre Mason. But Benny could progress rapidly and prove to be valuable later in the season. This would’ve been a better mid-season waiver wire pickup, but if he really explodes in the middle of the season, Evan will be glad he didn’t take the chance of someone else grabbing him off waivers first.

And hey, didn’t I say that anybody can be high value depending on where they are drafted? Darren McFadden of all people was one of Evan’s best value picks because he snagged him in the 12th round. Pierre Thomas is a legitimate candidate to start at Flex during Gronk’s and Thomas’s bye weeks and he was an 8th round pick.

The Balt/Atl Engineers’ value-based draft grade is -89 for the starters and -43 for the bench. The overall team value is a -132.

This ranks Evan’s starting unit 7th in the AFL. His overall team value puts him at 10th.

Last year, Evan made some great early round picks but didn’t do well drafting depth. Those first five picks carried him to a great regular season record and a division title. He lost in the higher-scoring semifinal matchup. This year’s draft didn’t bring the same level of success in the early rounds, but some decent depth could help keep Evan in the running for a repeat as division champ.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 36 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Chris Ivory, RB, NYJ (+36)

LeGarrette Blount, RB, PIT (+36)

Rod Streater, WR, OAK (+31)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Arizona Cardinals, DEF (-46)

Pittsburgh Steelers, DEF (-40)

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN (-37)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Drew Brees, NO (No. 1 QB)

RB Alfred Morris, WSH (No. 14 RB)

WR1 Julio Jones, ATL (No. 6 WR)

WR2 Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN (No. 28 WR)

TE Charles Clay, MIA (No. 11 TE)

FLEX Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN (No. 71 FLEX)

DEF Arizona Cardinals (No. 8 DEF)

K Steven Hauschka, SEA (No. 3 K)

Brandon took some major risks on his starting receivers in this draft. Julio Jones was obviously a nice pickup, and he got him at great value for a 2nd round draft pick. But there were 13 better receivers on the board when he took Emmanuel Sanders and 10 better receivers when he took Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson is a great option in a league that counts return yards for individual players, but ours doesn’t, so if he doesn’t exceed expectations dramatically, the next guy up at flex will be rookie Sammy Watkins. I’ll give a pass on Sanders since Peyton Manning did a good job of making all his offensive weapons happy last year, and because Wes Welker has been suspended for the first four games of the season (seriously, Broncos, come on now).

From an overall standpoint, the Arizona Cardinals pickup in the 10th round was awful, but they were the 8th ranked defense and were the 8th defense selected in the draft. Even though the numbers/formula punishes Brandon’s team for that pickup, I won’t give him a hard time for that one.

However, there were six better defenses available than Pittsburgh’s when he selected them in the 14th round. A lot of people don’t take a defense until the last two rounds of the draft. I would advise, in the future, that nobody ever take a second defense until the last round of the draft. Heck, I’d even say not to bother taking a second defense at all!

In addition, neither tight end selection was a good value and both qualify for honorable mention reaches. Charles Clay is the better of the two on his roster, but he selected Martellus Bennett. Guys like Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz, all better tight ends than Bennett, were available when he selected each of his two tight ends.

All told, Believe in Drew Breesus Christ is very middle-of-the-road in this league. Brandon’s draft earned him a value-based grade of -104 for his starting lineup, +7 for his bench, and -97 overall.

The team is ranked 8th in the league in overall value and 9th in starter value.

Brandon made the playoffs with a losing record last year, so a unit like this isn’t doomed. However, both of his division opponents had better drafts than him from a value standpoint, so it’s going to be a tough road. Drew Brees carried him last year and has an easier schedule this season. Maybe that’ll be enough.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Biggest Catches (Best Values)

Eric Decker, WR, NYJ (+26)

Bernard Pierce, RB, BAL (+24)

Andre Williams, RB, NYG (+23)

Biggest Reaches (Worst Value)

Ladarius Green, TE, SD (-80)

Andy Dalton, QB, CIN (-30)

Cleveland Browns, DEF (-25)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB Matt Ryan, ATL (No. 9 QB)

RB Jamaal Charles, KC (No. 1 RB)

WR1 Alshon Jeffery, CHI (No. 8 WR)

WR2 Eric Decker, NYJ (No. 23 WR)

TE Jordan Cameron, CLE (No. 4 TE)

FLEX DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL (No. 11 FLEX)

DEF Cleveland Browns (No. 14 DEF)

K Matt Bryant, ATL (No. 11 K)

Before I talk about those reaches, let me first say that Danny had a terrific draft. It wasn’t flawless, but seven of his first eight picks were positive value selections with five of them being a value of at least +10. Eric Decker will have a drop in production, but people freaked out too much over that. He’s still a great receiver in an offense where he will be the primary target, and you can’t argue with the value Danny got in him. According to my rankings, 14 poorer receivers were selected before Danny took Decker.

Bernard Pierce will be the starter in Baltimore for the first two weeks. Of course, it would be crazy to start him over guys like Charles and Murray, but for that +24 value, it was worth taking him so nobody else could have him. And Andre Williams could end up being much better than the 54th ranked fantasy running back. Even for a slightly negative value it would have been worth taking a flyer on him.

With guys like Zach Ertz and Heath Miller available, I was surprised to see Ladarius Green go. But the good news is that Jordan Cameron is going to be a beast this year and it could be worth taking the chance that Green will be the guy at tight end for the Chargers by mid-season. But remember, this is all about value. There was a time and place where Danny should have taken Green, and the 11th round was not that time or place.

Andy Dalton has been a fantasy stud, even if he’s been a playoff dud. But I don’t think he’ll continue at that high level this season with Jay Gruden no longer with him and a new offensive coordinator who prefers to run the football than air it out. It also doesn’t help that Andrew Hawkins is in Cleveland and Marvin Jones out for at least the team’s first three games. It was, however, a +1 positional value, so I can’t go too hard on this pick.

As for the Cleveland Browns, I had two defenses ranked higher than them when Danny made his defensive selection, but once you get in to the teens, what’s really the difference between one defense and another? Like I said, there isn’t even too much to complain about with his low-value selections.

Plugging things into my formula, Team Awesome earned a value-based grade of +46 for his starting unit, -53 for his bench, and -7 overall.

This ranked Danny 4th in the league in overall value and 2nd in starter value.

Things look very good for Danny as he looks to advance to a fourth consecutive championship appearance and back-to-back league titles.

Bonus

In order to include something without my biased rankings at its core, I’ve included the average bottom line of the evaluations by the four official evaluators at FootballGuys.com.

• With great in-season management, we think you have about an 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good in-season management, we think you have about an 81 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average in-season management, we think you have about a 71 percent chance of making the playoffs.