Aces Only Association:

2024, Week 16

Written by Cory Puffett
Published July 29, 2024

I'll open this week's recap with a very brief preview of Week 17, specifically focusing on playoff implications in various matchups.

It was a tough decision regarding which matchup to make the game of the week because all playoff implications involve either the matchup between Cory Puffett and Sean Kennedy or the one between Cory Frontin and Sam Martin.

Ultimately I went with the latter because they're the only two manages with paths to elimination this week. If Cory Frontin loses and Cory Puffett beats Sean, Frontin will be eliminated. If the inverse of both matchups occurs (Sam loses and Sean wins), Sam will be out of the playoff hunt.

That said, the matchup between Sean and Cory Puffett is almost an AOA West championship. If Cory wins, he clinches the division title. If Sean wins and Sam loses, Sean will be the AOA West champ.

Cory Frontin will clinch a playoff berth with a victory. Sean and Cory Puffett can do the same, but they can also earn berths with a loss by Cory Frontin (for Sean) or a loss by Sam (for Cory). Sam needs a win and for Cory Puffett to beat Sean in order to clinch a playoff spot.

Confused? Good. We'll let this week play out and revisit as we enter the final week of the season. In the mean time, let's get to our Week 16 recap, starting with the players of the week.

Players of the Week

Catcher - Yainer Diaz, 13.50 points (Alex Mayo)

1st Baseman - Pete Alonso, 15.00 points (Evan Ash)

2nd Baseman - Ketel Marte, 19.25 points (Stephen April)

3rd Baseman - Elly De La Cruz, 14.75 points (Sean kennedy)

Shortstop - Bobby Witt Jr, 27.75 points (Sean Kennedy)

OF - Juan Soto, 29.50 points (Andrew Perez)

UTIL - Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 25.50 points (Cory Frontin)

SP - Dylan Cease, 36.00 points (Evan Ash)

RP - Emmanuel Clase, 21.75 points (Alex Mayo)

It often seems that players who enter the All Star Break on a hot streak struggle to keep their rhythm on the other side of it. Don't tell Ketel Marte or Elly De La Cruz, though. After leading their respective positions in scoring back in Week 15, they were right back at it in Week 16.

Juan Soto earned his fourth Mike Trout Award this week, just one behind teammate Aaron Judge who finished second among outfielders this week. Interestingly enough, rival Red Sox outfielders Tyler O'Neill and Jarren Duran were the next two highest scorers at the position this week.

Alex Mayo couldn't quite pull out the win, perhaps because he had the fewest pitcher starts this week, using just 60% of his allotted starts. It's really a shame because he wasted a terrific week from his relievers, as he had not only Classe but also Andres Munoz as the third highest scoring reliever.

While it's generally not fair to compare players' weekly performances from this week to those across the rest of the season, we can do so for pitchers because nobody made more than two starts this week, which is a number some pitchers hit in other weeks.

This week we not only saw Dylan Cease set a new season-high for points in a single week with 36, we also saw Bailey Ober score 32 points which is also bested the previous high score in 2024.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr earned his first Hal McRae Award of the year as the highest scoring player occupying the Utility position on his team's roster, but it wasn't his first weekly positional award of the year. He took home the Paul Goldschmidt Award as the highest scoring first baseman back in Week 8 and again in Week 13.

Richard Blorstad (143.25) vs Stephen April (161.50)

All-time H2H: Series tied 1-1

In the lowest scoring matchup of the week, Stephen earned his third lucky win of the season as a Bottom 5 scorer. At two wins above expected by median scoring and 1.8 WAE by breakdown, he's been the third luckiest manager in the AOA this season.

That doesn't matter in the end, though. What really matters is that by holding on and weathering a late-week comeback attempt by Rich, Stephen has locked up the AOA East and will make the playoffs in his first year in the league.

Unfortunately, the flip side of that is Rich's elimination from the playoff hunt thanks to his loss. The fellow first-year manager can still finish above .500, but he has no path to clinch a playoff spot.

By winning the game of the week, Stephen earned his second Manny Ramirez Award in three opportunities this season.

Rich has played in many more games of the week and is now 2-4 in those contests. He also becomes the first of the new managers to earn a John Gochnaur Award as the lowest scoring manager of the week, leaving Stephen as the only manager in the AOA without one.

Rich's top scorer: Luis Castillo, 16.75 points (2 starts)
Stephen's top scorer: Jarren Duran, 23.25 points (9 games)

Eric Meyer (160.25) vs Sean Kennedy (222.50)

All-time H2H: Series tied 5-5

This was a pretty tough week for Sean outside of fantasy baseball, so it was nice that his team put together such an impressive performance. Only five time in AOA history has a team manager to score more than Sean's did this week, and of them only one was in a standard 7-day week and the others were all 11-day matchups.

This is Sean's fourth time this season claiming the Rickey Henderson Award as he continues his quest to do one better than his 2023 finish as the Scully Cup runner-up. For just the 12th time in AOA history, a manager put together a matchup-long batting average over .340, and that was a big key for Sean as he was one of three managers with fewer than 300 plate appearances in Week 16.

Eric's top scorer: Kevin Gausman, 27.25 points (2 starts)
Sean's top scorer: Bobby Witt Jr, 27.75 points (9 games)

Alex Mayo (182.25) vs Sam Martin (201.50)

All-time H2H: Sam leads series 9-1

After Alex finally got his first win in their head-to-head series back in Week 1, Sam returned the favor this week and joined Sean Kennedy as one of two managers to eclipse 200 points for the matchup.

Despite a significant disadvantage in pitching volume, Alex put together a pretty strong pitching week on the strength of seven saves and a strong team ERA and WHIP, ceding just five points to Sam in the discipline.

Unfortunately for him, Alex's offensive deficiencies didn't allow him to make up that difference. He had 47 fewer plate appearances than Sam over the course of the matchup and though his guys did hit pretty well, he lagged far behind in home runs and RBI.

Alex's top scorer: Pablo Lopez, 24.75 points (2 starts)
Sam's top scorer: Aaron Judge, 28.25 points (9 games)

Cory Puffett (198.50) vs Evan Ash (156.50)

All-time H2H: Cory leads series 6-2

In a matchup with a couple of lead swaps and in which Evan held the lead late in the contest, Cory put together a massive final day to capture his ninth straight victory.

Before this win streak began, Playoff Computer suggested he had a 9.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.1% chance of winning the AOA West.

Today those chances site above 90% and 50%, respectively, according to the calculation, though he'll have a couple of tough tests against Sean Kennedy and Rich Blorstad to close the regular season.

Cory's top scorer: Bailey Ober, 32.00 points (2 starts)
Evan's top scorer: Dylan Cease, 36.00 points (2 starts)

Andrew Perez (168.75) vs Cory Frontin (159.00)

All-time H2H: Series tied 4-4

Strangely, Fantrax currently has Cory's score 1.50 points lower than this. While Isaac Peredes's score from Sunday appears in the ledger, it is not being counted in his weekly total, presumable because he was traded to the Cubs after accumulating those stats with the Rays.

Hopefully Fantrax will update this in the coming days. If not, I will issue a manual correction.

In any case, it wasn't nearly enough to make up the deficit as Andrew's injury-riddled lineup managed to do enough to give him the fifth highest score of the week and his fourth victory of the year.

Andrew's top scorer: Brady Singer, 29.75 points (2 starts)
Cory's top scorer: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 25.50 points (9 games)

Game of the Week: Richard Blorstad at Stephen April

Rich put together a solid pitching week, certainly good enough for a sizeable advantage over Stephen who finished with the fewest pitching points in the league in Week 16. Unfortunately for Rich, his playoff hopes are now gone because Stephen’s hitters outscored his by nearly 40 points!

Sean had firm control of the top position in the power rankings from Week 5 until Stephen April unseated him in Week 9. He's back at the top now after a monster week in which he scored 110% as many points as the next highest scorer.

While Sean claims his fifth career #1 ranking, Andrew once again finds himself at the bottom of the totem pole despite earning a win and moving two games ahead of last place in the league.

This is Andrew's 16th time in his at the bottom of our power rankings in his career, tying Cory Frontin for the second most in AOA history.

Note: MLB issues stat corrections up to 7 days after games. These corrections will be applied to games, including those that have been completed, but these articles will not necessarily be updated with those stat corrections.

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